With a low-accuracy firm's upgrade and insider selling at the current price, the upgrade alone does not justify a bullish stance. Traders should view this as a neutral signal and wait for corroboration from higher-conviction analysts or price action.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
GLJ Research double upgraded Cleveland-Cliffs from Sell to Hold, raising its price target 66% from $9.03 to $15.01, just 4% above the current $14.43. The firm has a 29% accuracy rate on 7 CLF calls, the worst among covering analysts. Consensus is heavily bearish: 2 buys, 13 holds, 7 sells, 1 strong sell, with a mean target of $10.50 implying 27% downside. The price target range spans $8 to $15. Momentum shows 2 upgrades vs 0 downgrades in 30 days, but EPS revisions are mixed — near-term quarter estimates rising, full-year estimates falling. Insider selling by a director 4 days before the upgrade for $2.87M diverges from the bullish signal. Short interest is elevated at 55.3% of float. Institutions show mixed positioning with Two Sigma and Renaissance doubling stakes while Bank of America and Wells Fargo trimmed. Bottom line: A contrarian double upgrade from a low-accuracy firm provides limited conviction; the stock trades above consensus targets and near the new PT with insider selling clouding the outlook.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Across analysts, 0% rate Strong Buy, 9% Buy (2), 59% Hold (13), 32% Sell (7), 5% Strong Sell (1). The consensus is decidedly bearish with only 9% bullish and 37% bearish/sell. Direction of consensus is negative, with the mean target of $10.50 implying 27% downside.
Price targets: mean $10.50, median $10.00, high $15.00, low $8.00. Current $14.43 is 37% above the mean, implying downside. GLJ's $15.01 is the highest target, tied with the consensus high, and exceeds the mean by 43%. The firm is far above consensus.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | GLJ Research | upgrade | Hold | $15.01 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | $14.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | Barclays | initiate | Underweight | $9.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $12.00 |
| 2026-04-14 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $10.00 |
| 2026-03-19 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | — |
| 2026-03-16 | GLJ Research | reiterate | Sell | — |
| 2026-02-10 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $13.00 |
| 2026-02-10 | GLJ Research | maintain | Sell | $9.42 |
| 2026-01-23 | Seaport Global | downgrade | Neutral | — |
Over 30 days, 2 upgrades and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are mixed: the current quarter estimate has been revised from -$0.07 30 days ago to -$0.20 now, reflecting worsening expectations. Next quarter estimates rose from $0.005 to $0.098, a positive revision. Full-year estimates have been cut from -$0.38 to -$0.45. Overall, near-term optimism but longer-term caution.
Firm Track Record — GLJ Research
GLJ Research accuracy: 52% on 56 calls | avg return: 22.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 11 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keybanc | 100% | 3/3 | 12.5% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 100% | 4/4 | 15.6% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 67% | 2/3 | 0.5% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 50% | 2/4 | 3.7% | below average |
| JP Morgan | 50% | 2/4 | -7% | below average |
| Goldman Sachs | 40% | 2/5 | -0.7% | below average |
| B. Riley Securities | 33% | 1/3 | 7.6% | below average |
| Morgan Stanley | 33% | 3/9 | 1.4% | below average |
| GLJ Research | 29% | 2/7 | -8.1% | below average |
| Jefferies | 0% | 0/2 | 26.1% | below average |
GLJ Research's accuracy on CLF is 29% (2/7 calls) with an average return of -8.1%, the worst among covering analysts. The best performing firms are Keybanc and Citigroup, each with 100% accuracy on 3 and 4 calls, respectively, delivering average returns of 12.5% and 15.6%. GLJ's track record is significantly below average.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $-0.20 | $-0.30 — $-0.14 | $5.2B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.10 | $0.04 — $0.19 | $5.4B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $0.44 | $0.16 — $0.56 | $21.1B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $-0.45 | $-0.66 — $-0.28 | $20.6B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling: a director sold $2.87M worth of shares on June 5, 4 days before the upgrade, diverging from the bullish analyst move. No congressional trades. Institutional activity shows divergence: Two Sigma and Renaissance have doubled positions, while Bank of America and Wells Fargo trimmed 36-46%. Short interest is high at 55.3% of float, indicating heavy bearish positioning. Insider selling and high short interest contrast with the upgrade, suggesting skepticism.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 24, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $11.93 $11.27 | ▼ −5.53% | ▼ −9.16% | $11.32 (−5.11%) |
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $10.96 $10.74 | ▼ −2.01% | ▼ −5.32% | $11.32 (+3.28%) |
Jun 22, 2026 14w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $11.89 $9.28 | ▲ +21.95% | ▲ +21.80% | $11.32 (+4.79%) |
Jun 12, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $13.78 $9.40 | ▼ −31.79% | ▼ −33.56% | $11.32 (−17.85%) |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $13.71 $9.40 | ▼ −31.44% | ▼ −33.33% | $11.32 (−17.43%) |
Jun 9, 2026 16w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $12.72 $9.54 | ▼ −25.00% | ▼ −26.45% | $11.32 (−11.01%) |
May 22, 2026 19w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $11.23 $11.34 | ▼ −0.94% | ▼ −2.35% | $11.32 (−0.80%) |
Apr 20, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $9.73 $10.66 | ▼ −9.56% | ▼ −5.36% | $11.32 (−16.34%) |
US Market Status
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