The double upgrade from a low-accuracy firm is a contrarian signal but lacks credibility. Traders should treat this as noise unless confirmed by higher-accuracy firms or a catalyst. The high short interest could fuel a squeeze if sentiment shifts, but the poor track record of GLJ Research suggests caution.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
GLJ Research double-upgraded Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) from Neutral to Buy on July 24, 2026, raising its price target to $15.60 from $15.01, implying 65% upside from the current $9.45. The firm has a 29% accuracy rate on 7 calls and an average return of -8.1%, ranking as the second-worst performing firm covering CLF. Consensus is heavily bearish: only 1 Buy, 15 Hold, 7 Sell/Strong Sell out of 23 analysts. The mean price target is $10.56, median $10, with a high of $15 and low of $8.60. GLJ's PT sits above the consensus mean and at the high end of the range. Momentum is mixed: 1 upgrade in 30 days, 0 downgrades, but EPS estimates for the current fiscal year have been revised up 3 times in 30 days while next year's estimates have been revised down. Insider activity shows a single $2.87M sell by an executive in June, which is a weak signal. Short interest is elevated at 62.1% of float, suggesting heavy bearish positioning. The double upgrade from a low-accuracy firm is a contrarian signal but lacks credibility given the firm's track record.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Full consensus: 0 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 15 Hold, 6 Sell, 1 Strong Sell — total 23 analysts. Only 4% rate it a Buy, 65% Hold, 30% Sell/Strong Sell. The consensus is heavily bearish, with the majority neutral-to-negative.
Current price: $9.45. Mean target: $10.56 (implied upside 11.7%). Median: $10. High: $15, Low: $8.60. GLJ's $15.60 PT is above the high end of consensus ($15) and 48% above the mean. The PT is an outlier, reflecting a bullish view not shared by the Street.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | GLJ Research | upgrade | Buy | $15.60 |
| 2026-07-24 | Barclays | maintain | Underweight | $10.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | $11.00 |
| 2026-07-15 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $10.00 |
| 2026-07-09 | B of A Securities | maintain | Neutral | $11.50 |
| 2026-07-09 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | $9.00 |
| 2026-07-07 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $10.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | Morgan Stanley | downgrade | Equal-Weight | $12.50 |
| 2026-06-10 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $13.00 |
| 2026-06-09 | GLJ Research | upgrade | Hold | $15.01 |
30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade (GLJ), 0 downgrades. EPS revisions: 0y EPS revised up 3 times in 30 days (from -$0.36 to -$0.33), +1y EPS revised down 2 times in 30 days (from $0.50 to $0.36). Near-term estimates improving, but forward estimates deteriorating.
Firm Track Record — GLJ Research
GLJ Research accuracy: 52% on 56 calls | avg return: 22.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 11 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keybanc | 100% | 3/3 | 12.5% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 100% | 4/4 | 15.6% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 67% | 2/3 | 0.5% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 50% | 2/4 | 3.7% | below average |
| JP Morgan | 50% | 2/4 | -7% | below average |
| Goldman Sachs | 40% | 2/5 | -0.7% | below average |
| B. Riley Securities | 33% | 1/3 | 7.6% | below average |
| Morgan Stanley | 33% | 3/9 | 1.4% | below average |
| GLJ Research | 29% | 2/7 | -8.1% | below average |
| Jefferies | 0% | 0/2 | 26.1% | below average |
GLJ Research has a 29% accuracy rate (2 correct out of 7 scored calls) with an average return of -8.1%, ranking as the second-worst firm covering CLF. Best-performing firms: Keybanc (100% on 3 calls, avg return 12.5%), Citigroup (100% on 4 calls, avg return 15.6%). Worst: Seaport Global (0% on 3 calls, avg return -22.2%). GLJ's call is contrarian but from a low-accuracy firm.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $-0.33 | $-0.41 — $-0.22 | $20.9B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $0.36 | $0.20 — $0.55 | $21.6B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.20 | $0.11 — $0.28 | $5.5B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0q | $-0.22 | $-0.27 — $-0.15 | $5.1B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: one $2.87M sell by EVP Goncalves Celso L Jr on June 5, 2026 — a weak bearish signal. No congressional trades. Institutional activity mixed: Assenagon doubled position (+208%), Schonfeld doubled (+422%), while Wells Fargo trimmed (-26%) and Walleye Capital halved (-51%). Short interest is 62.1% of float, extremely high, indicating heavy bearish positioning. The analyst upgrade diverges from insider selling and high short interest.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 24, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $11.93 $11.27 | ▼ −5.53% | ▼ −9.16% | $11.32 (−5.11%) |
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $10.96 $10.74 | ▼ −2.01% | ▼ −5.32% | $11.32 (+3.28%) |
Jun 22, 2026 14w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $11.89 $9.28 | ▲ +21.95% | ▲ +21.80% | $11.32 (+4.79%) |
Jun 12, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $13.78 $9.40 | ▼ −31.79% | ▼ −33.56% | $11.32 (−17.85%) |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $13.71 $9.40 | ▼ −31.44% | ▼ −33.33% | $11.32 (−17.43%) |
Jun 9, 2026 16w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $12.72 $9.54 | ▼ −25.00% | ▼ −26.45% | $11.32 (−11.01%) |
May 22, 2026 19w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $11.23 $11.34 | ▼ −0.94% | ▼ −2.35% | $11.32 (−0.80%) |
Apr 20, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $9.73 $10.66 | ▼ −9.56% | ▼ −5.36% | $11.32 (−16.34%) |
US Market Status
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