The Q3 beat and strong Q4 guidance confirm the earnings recovery trajectory. The 2027 EBITDA outlook of >$4B is the key catalyst — if realized, it would represent a dramatic step-change in earnings power. Watch for Q4 free cash flow and debt reduction progress, and monitor steel pricing trends and trade policy developments that could support or undermine the 2027 outlook.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q3 2026 GAAP net income of $165M ($0.26 diluted) vs. a net loss of $134M in Q2 2026, with revenues of $5.6B. Adjusted EBITDA of $612M beat prior guidance of $575M, and Q4 2026 adjusted EBITDA is guided to ~$715M. The company also issued a preliminary 2027 outlook for adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4B, citing favorable contract renewals and improved market conditions.
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 GAAP net income of $165M ($0.26 diluted) vs. Q2 2026 net loss of $134M ($0.25 loss per share)
- Adjusted EBITDA of $612M, above the $575M guidance provided three months ago
- Q4 2026 adjusted EBITDA guided to approximately $715M
- 2027 adjusted EBITDA expected to exceed $4 billion based on new contracts and price forecasts
- Revenues of $5.6B, up from $5.2B in Q2 2026
- Steel shipments of 4.2 million net tons at average selling price of $1,177/ton, up from $1,124/ton in Q2 2026
- Liquidity of $3.2B as of September 30, 2026
- Company expects to reach leverage target of under 2.5x net debt to EBITDA by mid-2027
- Indefinitely idled galvanizing lines at Stelco due to oversupplied Canadian market for galvanized steel
Financial Impact
Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $612M beat guidance by $37M; Q4 guided to $715M; 2027 outlook of >$4B EBITDA implies ~$1B annual run-rate increase from current trajectory
Risk Factors
- Steel price volatility could derail the 2027 EBITDA outlook
- Canadian galvanized steel market oversupply led to Stelco line idling, creating operational risk
- High leverage (long-term debt $7.6B) remains a concern despite deleveraging plans
- Forward-looking statements for 2027 are preliminary and subject to market conditions
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000764065-26-000112 |
| Document: clf-20261019.htm | 0000764065-26-000112 |
| Document: 0000764065-26-000112-index-headers.html | 0000764065-26-000112 |
| Document: 0000764065-26-000112-index.html | 0000764065-26-000112 |
| Document: 0000764065-26-000112.txt | 0000764065-26-000112 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000764065-26-000112 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 20, 2026 6d ago | Institutional Cluster | $14.03 $13.05 | ▲ +6.99% | ▲ +5.80% | $13.38 (+4.63%) |
Oct 19, 2026 7d ago | 8-K | $14.10 $13.65 | ▼ −3.19% | ▼ −3.53% | $13.38 (−5.11%) |
Oct 6, 2026 20d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $12.25 $12.06 | ▼ −1.55% | ▼ −1.31% | $13.38 (+9.22%) |
Jul 24, 2026 13w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $11.93 $12.25 | ▲ +2.68% | ▲ +2.66% | $13.38 (+12.15%) |
Jul 23, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $10.96 $11.93 | ▲ +8.85% | ▲ +8.75% | $13.38 (+22.08%) |
Jul 1, 2026 16w ago | GOVT-CONTRACT | $9.86 $9.77 | ▼ −0.91% | ▼ −1.79% | $13.38 (+35.70%) |
Jun 22, 2026 18w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $11.89 $11.16 | ▲ +6.14% | ▲ +4.69% | $13.38 (−12.53%) |
Jun 12, 2026 19w ago | Institutional Cluster | $13.78 $13.63 | ▼ −1.09% | ▼ −2.85% | $13.38 (−2.90%) |
Jun 11, 2026 19w ago | Institutional Cluster | $13.71 $13.78 | ▲ +0.51% | ▼ −0.03% | $13.38 (−2.41%) |
Jun 9, 2026 19w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $12.72 $12.41 | ▼ −2.44% | ▼ −0.86% | $13.38 (+5.19%) |
US Market Status
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