The strong Q3 EBITDA guidance ($575M vs Q2 $286M) signals accelerating earnings power. Monitor Q3 results for confirmation of the trajectory and potential debt reduction progress toward 2.5x leverage target. The sequential improvement in margins and cash flow supports a positive outlook, but the stock's historical underperformance warrants caution.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q2 2026 results with revenue of $5.2B (beat consensus of $5.14B) and adjusted EPS of -$0.20 (beat consensus of -$0.22). Adjusted EBITDA tripled sequentially to $286M, and management guided Q3 adjusted EBITDA to approximately $575M, more than double Q2. The company returned to positive free cash flow and began reducing debt. Despite continued GAAP net losses, the trajectory shows strong operational improvement.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Revenue $5.226B vs consensus $5.14B (beat 1.7%)
- Adjusted EPS -$0.20 vs consensus -$0.22 (beat 9.1%)
- Adjusted EBITDA $286M, up from $95M in Q1 2026 (tripled)
- Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA guided to ~$575M (more than double Q2)
- GAAP net loss narrowed to $134M from $229M in Q1
- Operating cash flow $230M; positive free cash flow achieved
- Steel shipments 4.025M net tons; average selling price $1,124/ton (up 10.7% YoY)
- Full-year 2026 guidance maintained: shipments 16.5-17.0M tons, capex ~$700M
- Liquidity $3.1B; long-term debt $7.7B
Financial Impact
Adjusted EBITDA tripled to $286M, Q3 guided to ~$575M; revenue $5.2B beat consensus; net loss narrowed to $134M.
Risk Factors
- Steel price volatility and import competition
- Automotive demand weakness
- High debt load ($7.7B) and leverage above 2.5x target
- Trade policy uncertainty (tariffs, Section 232)
- Execution risk on cost reduction and volume ramp
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000764065-26-000097 |
| Document: clf-20260723.htm | 0000764065-26-000097 |
| Document: 0000764065-26-000097-index-headers.html | 0000764065-26-000097 |
| Document: 0000764065-26-000097-index.html | 0000764065-26-000097 |
| Document: 0000764065-26-000097.txt | 0000764065-26-000097 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000764065-26-000097 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 24, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $11.93 $11.27 | ▼ −5.53% | ▼ −9.16% | $11.32 (−5.11%) |
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $10.96 $10.74 | ▼ −2.01% | ▼ −5.32% | $11.32 (+3.28%) |
Jun 22, 2026 14w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $11.89 $9.28 | ▲ +21.95% | ▲ +21.80% | $11.32 (+4.79%) |
Jun 12, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $13.78 $9.40 | ▼ −31.79% | ▼ −33.56% | $11.32 (−17.85%) |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $13.71 $9.40 | ▼ −31.44% | ▼ −33.33% | $11.32 (−17.43%) |
Jun 9, 2026 16w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $12.72 $9.54 | ▼ −25.00% | ▼ −26.45% | $11.32 (−11.01%) |
May 22, 2026 19w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $11.23 $11.34 | ▼ −0.94% | ▼ −2.35% | $11.32 (−0.80%) |
Apr 20, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $9.73 $10.66 | ▼ −9.56% | ▼ −5.36% | $11.32 (−16.34%) |
US Market Status
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