◆ Today's Edge
The filings most worth trading right now,
ranked by historical edge.
Each filing is scored on how reliably similar past filings have actually paid off. Figures are gross of trading costs — real spread and slippage, largest on thinly-traded names, come out of these.
For every filing we look up how filings of the same SEC form, company size and
conviction score have actually performed historically. We estimate the average return and
rank by its 80% lower bound — the conservative worst-of-a-good-run
figure — so a small, lucky sample can't jump the queue. When a filing has little history,
its estimate is pulled toward the broader average (Bühlmann shrinkage) and it ranks below
filings backed by more data. Returns are gross of trading costs; we
apply a liquidity floor and hold micro-caps out of Best Bets rather than guess a spread.
Because the edge comes from the group a filing belongs to, two filings of the same form, company size and conviction score will show the same numbers — that's expected, not a duplicate. They're separate trades that happen to share one historical track record.
Because the edge comes from the group a filing belongs to, two filings of the same form, company size and conviction score will show the same numbers — that's expected, not a duplicate. They're separate trades that happen to share one historical track record.
The ranked list is for subscribers
Subscribers see every new filing scored and sorted into Best Bets, Worth a look and No clear edge, refreshed every minute.