How these setups have played out
Each setup is one kind of Reddit spike. For every spike we check how the stock did over the next month compared with the S&P 500.
If those stocks keep falling behind the market, the setup is a bearish signal. If they keep beating it, it is a bullish signal.
- Alerting
- reliable enough to send alerts
- Watching
- tracked, not reliable enough yet
Cheap-stock hype Alerting
Mention spike on a stock under $10.
Bearish signal. Buying into these spikes has usually lost to the market: the crowd tends to arrive late. Traders use it to avoid chasing, take profits, or look at the short side.
- Next month vs market
- −11.5%
- Stocks that beat it
- 29%
- Last 90 days
- −10.0%
- Past spikes
- 112· 17 recent
Signal strength
How the 87 is scored
- Size of the move
- 40/40
- How often it goes the same way
- 26/30
- Number of past cases
- 11/20
- Last 90 days agree
- 10/10
Hype after a run Alerting
Mentions at least 3× normal after the stock ran 10% or more in 5 trading days.
Bearish signal. Buying into these spikes has usually lost to the market: the crowd tends to arrive late. Traders use it to avoid chasing, take profits, or look at the short side.
- Next month vs market
- −10.6%
- Stocks that beat it
- 31%
- Last 90 days
- +0.0%
- Past spikes
- 162· 24 recent
Signal strength
How the 79 is scored
- Size of the move
- 40/40
- How often it goes the same way
- 23/30
- Number of past cases
- 16/20
- Last 90 days agree
- 0/10
First-time buzz Alerting
A stock Reddit had not mentioned in the prior 2 weeks suddenly spikes.
Bearish signal. Buying into these spikes has usually lost to the market: the crowd tends to arrive late. Traders use it to avoid chasing, take profits, or look at the short side.
- Next month vs market
- −8.0%
- Stocks that beat it
- 31%
- Last 90 days
- −3.3%
- Past spikes
- 119· 24 recent
Signal strength
How the 69 is scored
- Size of the move
- 29/40
- How often it goes the same way
- 23/30
- Number of past cases
- 12/20
- Last 90 days agree
- 5/10
Heavily shorted Alerting
Spike on a stock with 15% or more of its shares sold short.
Bearish signal. Buying into these spikes has usually lost to the market: the crowd tends to arrive late. Traders use it to avoid chasing, take profits, or look at the short side.
- Next month vs market
- −9.8%
- Stocks that beat it
- 34%
- Last 90 days
- −3.7%
- Past spikes
- 61· 22 recent
Signal strength
How the 59 is scored
- Size of the move
- 29/40
- How often it goes the same way
- 19/30
- Number of past cases
- 6/20
- Last 90 days agree
- 5/10
Bullish crowd Watching
Spike where the crowd leans bullish.
Bearish signal. Buying into these spikes has usually lost to the market: the crowd tends to arrive late. Traders use it to avoid chasing, take profits, or look at the short side.
- Next month vs market
- −6.0%
- Stocks that beat it
- 41%
- Last 90 days
- +0.6%
- Past spikes
- 230· 36 recent
Signal strength
How the 47 is scored
- Size of the move
- 16/40
- How often it goes the same way
- 11/30
- Number of past cases
- 20/20
- Last 90 days agree
- 0/10
Buzz into earnings Watching
Spike with an earnings report due within 14 days.
No clear edge yet. Results so far are mixed, so this setup does not send alerts.
- Next month vs market
- −2.6%
- Stocks that beat it
- 35%
- Last 90 days
- +3.3%
- Past spikes
- 57· 16 recent
Signal strength
How the 34 is scored
- Size of the move
- 10/40
- How often it goes the same way
- 18/30
- Number of past cases
- 6/20
- Last 90 days agree
- 0/10
Insiders selling Watching
Spike after insiders sold $1M or more on the open market in the prior 30 days.
No clear edge yet. Results so far are mixed, so this setup does not send alerts.
- Next month vs market
- +0.8%
- Stocks that beat it
- 49%
- Last 90 days
- +4.3%
- Past spikes
- 177· 37 recent
Signal strength
How the 28 is scored
- Size of the move
- 0/40
- How often it goes the same way
- 0/30
- Number of past cases
- 18/20
- Last 90 days agree
- 10/10
Insiders buying Watching
Spike after insiders bought $100K or more on the open market in the prior 30 days.
No clear edge yet. Results so far are mixed, so this setup does not send alerts.
- Next month vs market
- −7.0%
- Stocks that beat it
- 53%
- Last 90 days
- +12.4%
- Past spikes
- 32· 4 recent
Signal strength
How the 3 is scored
- Size of the move
- 0/40
- How often it goes the same way
- 0/30
- Number of past cases
- 3/20
- Last 90 days agree
- 0/10
Bearish crowd Retired
Spike where the crowd leans bearish.
No clear edge yet. Results so far are mixed, so this setup does not send alerts.
- Next month vs market
- −1.8%
- Stocks that beat it
- 49%
- Last 90 days
- +5.6%
- Past spikes
- 70· 15 recent
Signal strength
How the 12 is scored
- Size of the move
- 3/40
- How often it goes the same way
- 2/30
- Number of past cases
- 7/20
- Last 90 days agree
- 0/10
