Freedom Broker’s double-downgrade is a credible contrarian signal from a decent-accuracy firm, but the lack of broader analyst support and mixed earnings momentum suggest it’s premature to short. Wait for additional downgrades or a breakdown below $380 before acting bearishly.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Freedom Broker double-downgraded INTU to Hold from Buy on May 21, slashing its price target to $430 from $600 — a 28% cut. The call is sharply contrarian to consensus: 33 of 41 analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with a mean target of $592.33 implying 54% upside. Freedom Broker’s 66% accuracy on 68 calls and 11.8% average return rank it above average, but the magnitude of the target cut and the rare double downgrade signal conviction. Concurrently, UBS, Evercore ISI, Citigroup, and others maintained their ratings, with targets ranging from $360 to $591, showing no broad bearish shift. EPS revisions over the past 30 days are mixed — last quarter’s estimate edged up, but next quarter saw 10 downward revisions vs. 7 upward. Short interest stands at 59.7%, reflecting heavy bearish positioning, while recent insider sells by director Richard Dalzell (~$457K in March) add a mild bearish tint. The signal is bearish but isolated against a bullish consensus; traders should watch for follow-through from other firms before acting decisively.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Out of 41 analysts covering INTU, 12 rate it Strong Buy, 21 Buy, 8 Hold — 33 Buy vs. 8 Hold, with zero Sell ratings. The consensus is overwhelmingly bullish, contrasting sharply with Freedom Broker’s cautious view.
Current price: $383.93. Mean target: $592.33 (implied upside +54%). Median: $578. High: $916. Low: $425. Freedom Broker’s $430 target sits just above the low and is 27% below the mean — the most bearish target among recent revisions.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Freedom Broker | downgrade | Hold | $430.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $360.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $400.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $591.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $410.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | $360.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | BMO Capital | maintain | Outperform | $412.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $500.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $443.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Stifel | maintain | Buy | $375.00 |
Only 1 analyst action in the past 30 days — Freedom Broker’s downgrade. Zero upgrades. EPS revisions are mixed: current-quarter average rose 2.6% over 30 days (to $3.22), but next-quarter estimates saw 10 downward revisions vs. 7 upward, a net negative tilt.
Firm Track Record — Freedom Broker
Freedom Broker accuracy: 66% on 68 calls | avg return: 11.8%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna | 100% | 2/2 | 3.8% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 80% | 4/5 | 2.7% | top tier |
| Scotiabank | 67% | 2/3 | 13.4% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 67% | 4/6 | 4.8% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 60% | 3/5 | 2.7% | above average |
| Stifel | 60% | 3/5 | -2.7% | above average |
| UBS | 60% | 3/5 | 0.3% | above average |
| JP Morgan | 60% | 3/5 | 1.7% | above average |
| Morgan Stanley | 50% | 4/8 | 2.7% | below average |
| Evercore ISI Group | 50% | 2/4 | -0.8% | below average |
Freedom Broker has a 66% accuracy rate (45 correct out of 68 scored calls) with an average return of 11.8%, placing it above average among firms covering INTU. Top-tier performers by accuracy include Susquehanna (100% on 2 calls) and BofA Securities (80% on 5), while bottom firms include Barclays (40%, avg return -6%) and BMO Capital (33%, avg return -7.6%).
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $3.22 | $3.16 — $3.37 | $4.1B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $3.94 | $3.53 — $4.37 | $4.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $23.31 | $23.14 — $23.78 | $21.2B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $26.48 | $25.44 — $28.96 | $23.9B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades show recent sells by director Richard Dalzell ($457K total in March 2026) — small in size but aligning with the downgrade. Congressional buys (Reps. McCaul and Khanna, totaling ~$30K) are negligible. Short interest is elevated at 59.7%, indicating crowded bearish positioning. Institutional moves are split: Norges Bank built a massive new $3.1B stake, while Renaissance Technologies exited and re-entered. Two Sigma increased holdings 539%. No clear convergence with the bearish analyst call.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 9, 2026 22d ago | S-3ASR | $312.77 $313.13 | ▲ +0.12% | ▲ +0.61% | $280.16 (−10.43%) |
Sep 2, 2026 29d ago | Press Release | $342.94 $312.77 | ▲ +8.80% | ▲ +7.84% | $280.16 (+18.31%) |
Aug 26, 2026 5w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $345.88 $342.94 | ▲ +0.85% | ▲ +0.73% | $280.16 (+19.00%) |
Aug 3, 2026 8w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | Press Release | $281.53 $315.50 | ▼ −12.07% | ▼ −11.59% | $280.16 (+0.49%) |
Jul 21, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $289.92 $303.91 | ▼ −4.83% | ▼ −6.05% | $280.16 (+3.37%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $294.79 $281.53 | ▲ +4.50% | ▲ +2.83% | $280.16 (+4.96%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | Institutional Cluster | $294.79 $281.53 | ▲ +4.50% | ▲ +2.83% | $280.16 (+4.96%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
US Market Status
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