The double downgrade from TD Cowen, combined with insider selling and elevated short interest, creates a bearish convergence that traders should respect. However, the stock is already trading at the new target, and EPS revisions remain positive — consider waiting for a bounce toward $320-$330 before initiating shorts, or use put spreads to limit downside risk.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
TD Cowen double downgraded INTU from Buy to Hold on July 28, slashing its price target from $504 to $304 — a 39.7% cut — as the stock trades at $303.91. The firm has a 56% accuracy rate on 1,796 calls and an average return of 3.4%, placing it in the average tier. Consensus remains heavily bullish at 91% Buy (30 of 33 analysts), but the mean target of $462.53 implies 52% upside from current levels. Two downgrades in the past 30 days (TD Cowen and Morgan Stanley) signal growing caution, though EPS revisions over the same period show 30 upward revisions vs. 1 downward for the current fiscal year. Insider selling by Director Richard Dalzell ($444K in June) and congressional sells (three in May-July) align with the bearish analyst tone. The cross-platform signal is bearish-convergent, reinforcing the downgrade's significance. For traders, this is a high-conviction contrarian call from a mid-accuracy firm that warrants attention but not panic — the stock is already near the new target.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is 91% Buy (30 of 33 analysts: 11 Strong Buy, 19 Buy), 9% Hold (10 analysts), and 0% Sell (1 Sell). The consensus is overwhelmingly bullish, making TD Cowen's downgrade a clear contrarian call against the majority view.
Current price: $303.91. Mean target: $462.53 (52% upside). Median: $443. High: $921. Low: $250. TD Cowen's $304 target is at the very low end of the range, just above the $250 low, and well below the mean — signaling a bearish outlier view.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | TD Cowen | downgrade | Hold | $304.00 |
| 2026-07-21 | Morgan Stanley | downgrade | Equal-Weight | $335.00 |
| 2026-07-20 | Susquehanna | maintain | Positive | $427.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | Stifel | downgrade | Hold | $275.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | Goldman Sachs | downgrade | Sell | $276.00 |
| 2026-05-26 | Mizuho | maintain | Outperform | $500.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Freedom Broker | downgrade | Hold | $430.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $360.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $400.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $591.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 2 downgrades (TD Cowen and Morgan Stanley). EPS revisions are positive: 30 upward revisions vs. 1 downward for the current fiscal year, and 28 up vs. 3 down for next year. Estimates are being revised higher despite the downgrades, creating a divergence between analyst ratings and earnings momentum.
Firm Track Record — TD Cowen
TD Cowen accuracy: 56% on 1796 calls | avg return: 3.4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna | 100% | 2/2 | 3.8% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 80% | 4/5 | 2.7% | top tier |
| Scotiabank | 67% | 2/3 | 13.4% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 67% | 4/6 | 4.8% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 60% | 3/5 | 2.7% | above average |
| Stifel | 60% | 3/5 | -2.7% | above average |
| UBS | 60% | 3/5 | 0.3% | above average |
| JP Morgan | 60% | 3/5 | 1.7% | above average |
| Morgan Stanley | 50% | 4/8 | 2.7% | below average |
| Evercore ISI Group | 50% | 2/4 | -0.8% | below average |
TD Cowen has a 56% accuracy rate on 1,796 calls with a 3.4% average return, placing it in the average tier. Top-performing firms on INTU include Susquehanna (100% on 2 calls, 3.8% avg return) and B of A Securities (80% on 5 calls, 2.7% avg return). Worst performers: BMO Capital (33% on 6 calls, -7.6% avg return) and Barclays (40% on 5 calls, -6% avg return).
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $3.59 | $3.49 — $3.72 | $4.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $4.04 | $3.66 — $4.51 | $4.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $23.83 | $23.68 — $23.96 | $21.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $27.33 | $26.33 — $28.93 | $23.8B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling: Director Richard Dalzell sold $444K in June (5 trades, $74K-$99K each) — a cluster of sales from a director, which is a bearish signal. Congressional activity: 3 sells (Dan Newhouse, Rick Allen, Josh Gottheimer) vs. 2 buys (Michael McCaul) in May-July — net bearish. Institutional changes: 4 trims (Private Advisor Group -62.8%, BENJAMIN EDWARDS -25.2%, etc.) vs. 1 doubling (Assenagon +145.3%) — mixed but leaning bearish. Short interest: 59.7% short ratio (1.09M shares short vs. 1.83M TRF volume) — elevated short interest suggests bearish positioning. The convergence of analyst downgrades, insider sales, congressional sells, and institutional trims creates a strong bearish cross-platform signal.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 9, 2026 22d ago | S-3ASR | $312.77 $313.13 | ▲ +0.12% | ▲ +0.61% | $280.16 (−10.43%) |
Sep 2, 2026 29d ago | Press Release | $342.94 $312.77 | ▲ +8.80% | ▲ +7.84% | $280.16 (+18.31%) |
Aug 26, 2026 5w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $345.88 $342.94 | ▲ +0.85% | ▲ +0.73% | $280.16 (+19.00%) |
Aug 3, 2026 8w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | Press Release | $281.53 $315.50 | ▼ −12.07% | ▼ −11.59% | $280.16 (+0.49%) |
Jul 21, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $289.92 $303.91 | ▼ −4.83% | ▼ −6.05% | $280.16 (+3.37%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $294.79 $281.53 | ▲ +4.50% | ▲ +2.83% | $280.16 (+4.96%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | Institutional Cluster | $294.79 $281.53 | ▲ +4.50% | ▲ +2.83% | $280.16 (+4.96%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
US Market Status
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