Price Chart

Executive Summary

TD Cowen double downgraded INTU from Buy to Hold on July 28, slashing its price target from $504 to $304 — a 39.7% cut — as the stock trades at $303.91. The firm has a 56% accuracy rate on 1,796 calls and an average return of 3.4%, placing it in the average tier. Consensus remains heavily bullish at 91% Buy (30 of 33 analysts), but the mean target of $462.53 implies 52% upside from current levels. Two downgrades in the past 30 days (TD Cowen and Morgan Stanley) signal growing caution, though EPS revisions over the same period show 30 upward revisions vs. 1 downward for the current fiscal year. Insider selling by Director Richard Dalzell ($444K in June) and congressional sells (three in May-July) align with the bearish analyst tone. The cross-platform signal is bearish-convergent, reinforcing the downgrade's significance. For traders, this is a high-conviction contrarian call from a mid-accuracy firm that warrants attention but not panic — the stock is already near the new target.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Consensus is 91% Buy (30 of 33 analysts: 11 Strong Buy, 19 Buy), 9% Hold (10 analysts), and 0% Sell (1 Sell). The consensus is overwhelmingly bullish, making TD Cowen's downgrade a clear contrarian call against the majority view.

Current price: $303.91. Mean target: $462.53 (52% upside). Median: $443. High: $921. Low: $250. TD Cowen's $304 target is at the very low end of the range, just above the $250 low, and well below the mean — signaling a bearish outlier view.

Recent Analyst Activity

30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 2 downgrades (TD Cowen and Morgan Stanley). EPS revisions are positive: 30 upward revisions vs. 1 downward for the current fiscal year, and 28 up vs. 3 down for next year. Estimates are being revised higher despite the downgrades, creating a divergence between analyst ratings and earnings momentum.

Firm Track Record — TD Cowen

TD Cowen accuracy: 56% on 1796 calls | avg return: 3.4%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

TD Cowen has a 56% accuracy rate on 1,796 calls with a 3.4% average return, placing it in the average tier. Top-performing firms on INTU include Susquehanna (100% on 2 calls, 3.8% avg return) and B of A Securities (80% on 5 calls, 2.7% avg return). Worst performers: BMO Capital (33% on 6 calls, -7.6% avg return) and Barclays (40% on 5 calls, -6% avg return).

Earnings Estimates

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider selling: Director Richard Dalzell sold $444K in June (5 trades, $74K-$99K each) — a cluster of sales from a director, which is a bearish signal. Congressional activity: 3 sells (Dan Newhouse, Rick Allen, Josh Gottheimer) vs. 2 buys (Michael McCaul) in May-July — net bearish. Institutional changes: 4 trims (Private Advisor Group -62.8%, BENJAMIN EDWARDS -25.2%, etc.) vs. 1 doubling (Assenagon +145.3%) — mixed but leaning bearish. Short interest: 59.7% short ratio (1.09M shares short vs. 1.83M TRF volume) — elevated short interest suggests bearish positioning. The convergence of analyst downgrades, insider sales, congressional sells, and institutional trims creates a strong bearish cross-platform signal.

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status