The double downgrade from a mid-accuracy firm, combined with three downgrades in 30 days and elevated short interest, creates a bearish near-term setup. However, strong EPS revisions and institutional buying suggest the selloff may be overdone — wait for a catalyst before shorting.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Truist Securities double-downgraded INTU from Buy to Hold on August 3, 2026, slashing its price target to $350 from $410, implying a 9.9% upside from the current $318.39. The firm has a 55% accuracy rate on 3,790 calls with a 3.1% average return, placing it near the middle of the analyst pack. Consensus remains heavily bullish at 85% Buy (28 of 42 ratings), but the downgrade adds to a growing bearish wave — three downgrades in the last 30 days from TD Cowen, Morgan Stanley, and now Truist. The mean price target of $456.47 implies 43.4% upside, but the low target of $250 suggests significant downside risk. Insider selling by Director Richard Dalzell (five trades totaling ~$444k in June) aligns with the negative analyst momentum. The bottom line: a high-consensus stock facing a rare double downgrade from a mid-accuracy firm, with no earnings catalyst in the next 30 days — a cautionary signal for momentum traders.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is 67% Buy (28 of 42 ratings: 11 Strong Buy, 17 Buy), 29% Hold (12), and 5% Sell (2). The consensus is heavily bullish, but the recent downgrade wave is eroding that view.
Mean PT is $456.47, median $430, high $921, low $250. Current price $318.39 implies 43.4% upside to the mean. Truist's $350 PT is 23% below the mean and 19% below the median, placing it in the bearish minority.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Truist Securities | downgrade | Hold | $350.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | TD Cowen | downgrade | Hold | $304.00 |
| 2026-07-21 | Morgan Stanley | downgrade | Equal-Weight | $335.00 |
| 2026-07-20 | Susquehanna | maintain | Positive | $427.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | Stifel | downgrade | Hold | $275.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | Goldman Sachs | downgrade | Sell | $276.00 |
| 2026-05-26 | Mizuho | maintain | Outperform | $500.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Freedom Broker | downgrade | Hold | $430.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $360.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $400.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 3 downgrades (Truist, TD Cowen, Morgan Stanley). EPS revisions are positive — 30 up vs 1 down for the current fiscal year, and 28 up vs 3 down for next year. Estimates are being revised higher despite the downgrade wave, creating a divergence.
Firm Track Record — Truist Securities
Truist Securities accuracy: 55% on 3790 calls | avg return: 3.1%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna | 100% | 2/2 | 3.8% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 80% | 4/5 | 2.7% | top tier |
| Scotiabank | 67% | 2/3 | 13.4% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 67% | 4/6 | 4.8% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 60% | 3/5 | 2.7% | above average |
| Stifel | 60% | 3/5 | -2.7% | above average |
| UBS | 60% | 3/5 | 0.3% | above average |
| JP Morgan | 60% | 3/5 | 1.7% | above average |
| Morgan Stanley | 50% | 4/8 | 2.7% | below average |
| Evercore ISI Group | 50% | 2/4 | -0.8% | below average |
Truist has 55% accuracy on 3,790 calls with a 3.1% average return, ranking it in the middle tier. Top firms by accuracy on INTU include Susquehanna (100% on 2 calls), B of A Securities (80% on 5), and Scotiabank (67% on 3). Bottom firms include BMO Capital (33% on 6) and Barclays (40% on 5).
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $3.59 | $3.49 — $3.72 | $4.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $4.04 | $3.66 — $4.51 | $4.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $23.83 | $23.68 — $23.96 | $21.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $27.34 | $26.33 — $28.93 | $23.8B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: Director Richard Dalzell sold ~$444k in five June trades (routine pattern, likely 10b5-1). Congressional activity: 3 sells (Newhouse, Allen, Gottheimer) vs 2 buys (McCaul) — net negative but small dollar amounts. Institutional: Boston Partners initiated a $42M position, Assenagon doubled its stake (+145%), while Swedbank trimmed 51%. Short interest is 59.7% of off-exchange volume, elevated. The insider selling and congressional sells align with the bearish analyst signal, but institutional buying provides a partial offset.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 9, 2026 22d ago | S-3ASR | $312.77 $313.13 | ▲ +0.12% | ▲ +0.61% | $282.78 (−9.59%) |
Sep 2, 2026 29d ago | Press Release | $342.94 $312.77 | ▲ +8.80% | ▲ +7.84% | $282.78 (+17.54%) |
Aug 26, 2026 5w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $345.88 $342.94 | ▲ +0.85% | ▲ +0.73% | $282.78 (+18.24%) |
Aug 3, 2026 8w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | Press Release | $281.53 $315.50 | ▼ −12.07% | ▼ −11.59% | $282.78 (−0.44%) |
Jul 21, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $289.92 $303.91 | ▼ −4.83% | ▼ −6.05% | $282.78 (+2.46%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $294.79 $281.53 | ▲ +4.50% | ▲ +2.83% | $282.78 (+4.07%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | Institutional Cluster | $294.79 $281.53 | ▲ +4.50% | ▲ +2.83% | $282.78 (+4.07%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
US Market Status
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