The downgrade cluster and massive PT cut from Morgan Stanley signal a potential inflection point. Traders should watch for further downgrades or a break below $275 (Stifel's target) as confirmation of a bearish trend. The positive EPS revisions provide a counterweight — wait for price confirmation before acting.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Morgan Stanley double-downgraded INTU from Overweight to Equal-Weight on July 21, slashing its price target 42% from $580 to $335. The call is a sharp contrarian move against a consensus that remains 91% Buy/Overweight (30 of 33 analysts). Morgan Stanley's new $335 target sits 29% below the $473.68 mean and 26% below the $455 median, making it the second-lowest target on the street. The firm carries a below-average 55% accuracy on 4,989 calls with a 4.3% average return. Momentum is bearish: this is the fourth downgrade in two months, following Stifel (Buy→Hold, PT $275), Goldman Sachs (Neutral→Sell, PT $276), and Freedom Broker (Buy→Hold, PT $430). EPS revisions remain positive — 30 upward revisions in the last 30 days for the current fiscal year — but the analyst downgrade cluster signals growing skepticism. Insider selling by director Richard Dalzell ($444k in five June trades) and congressional sells (three of five recent trades) add a bearish cross-platform tilt. Bottom line: a high-impact contrarian downgrade from a below-average-accuracy firm, but the sheer magnitude of the PT cut and the cluster of recent downgrades demand attention.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily bullish: 30 of 33 analysts (91%) rate Buy/Strong Buy, 10 Hold (30%), 1 Sell (3%). The direction is strongly bullish, but the downgrade cluster is eroding that consensus.
Mean $473.68, median $455, high $921, low $250. Current price $293.82 implies 61% upside to the mean. Morgan Stanley's $335 target is 29% below the mean and sits near the low end of the range.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Morgan Stanley | downgrade | Equal-Weight | $335.00 |
| 2026-07-20 | Susquehanna | maintain | Positive | $427.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | Stifel | downgrade | Hold | $275.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | Goldman Sachs | downgrade | Sell | $276.00 |
| 2026-05-26 | Mizuho | maintain | Outperform | $500.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Freedom Broker | downgrade | Hold | $430.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $360.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $400.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $591.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $410.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 1 downgrade (Morgan Stanley). EPS revisions: 30 upward revisions vs 1 downward in the last 30 days for the current fiscal year — estimates are still being revised higher despite the bearish analyst actions.
Firm Track Record — Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley accuracy: 55% on 4989 calls | avg return: 4.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna | 100% | 2/2 | 3.8% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 80% | 4/5 | 2.7% | top tier |
| Scotiabank | 67% | 2/3 | 13.4% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 67% | 4/6 | 4.8% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 60% | 3/5 | 2.7% | above average |
| Stifel | 60% | 3/5 | -2.7% | above average |
| UBS | 60% | 3/5 | 0.3% | above average |
| JP Morgan | 60% | 3/5 | 1.7% | above average |
| Morgan Stanley | 50% | 4/8 | 2.7% | below average |
| Evercore ISI Group | 50% | 2/4 | -0.8% | below average |
Morgan Stanley has a 55% accuracy rate on 4,989 calls with a 4.3% average return — below average vs. peers. Top-tier firms on INTU include Susquehanna (100% on 2 calls), BofA (80% on 5), and Scotiabank (67% on 3). Worst performers: BMO Capital (33% on 6, -7.6% avg return) and Barclays (40% on 5, -6% avg return).
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $3.59 | $3.49 — $3.72 | $4.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $4.04 | $3.66 — $4.51 | $4.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $23.83 | $23.68 — $23.96 | $21.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $27.34 | $26.38 — $28.93 | $23.8B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: director Richard Dalzell sold $444k in five June trades — a cluster of sales from a C-suite insider, bearish. Congressional activity: 3 sells, 2 buys (Michael McCaul bought twice in June). Institutional changes mixed: Assenagon doubled its position (+145%, $30.8M) while Davenport trimmed (-66%, $1.8M). Short interest is elevated at 59.7% of TRF volume. The analyst downgrade aligns with insider selling and congressional sells, but diverges from upward EPS revisions and some institutional buying.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 9, 2026 22d ago | S-3ASR | $312.77 $313.13 | ▲ +0.12% | ▲ +0.61% | $280.11 (−10.44%) |
Sep 2, 2026 4w ago | Press Release | $342.94 $312.77 | ▲ +8.80% | ▲ +7.84% | $280.11 (+18.32%) |
Aug 26, 2026 5w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $345.88 $342.94 | ▲ +0.85% | ▲ +0.73% | $280.11 (+19.01%) |
Aug 3, 2026 8w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | Press Release | $281.53 $315.50 | ▼ −12.07% | ▼ −11.59% | $280.11 (+0.50%) |
Jul 21, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $289.92 $303.91 | ▼ −4.83% | ▼ −6.05% | $280.11 (+3.38%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $294.79 $281.53 | ▲ +4.50% | ▲ +2.83% | $280.11 (+4.98%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | Institutional Cluster | $294.79 $281.53 | ▲ +4.50% | ▲ +2.83% | $280.11 (+4.98%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
US Market Status
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