The double downgrade from a mid-accuracy firm is a strong bearish signal, reinforced by negative estimate revisions and insider selling. However, the extremely high short interest creates a potential squeeze scenario. Traders should avoid initiating long positions until the stock shows signs of bottoming, but aggressive shorts may face risk from the already elevated short interest.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
JP Morgan double-downgraded NIKE to Underweight from Neutral and slashed its price target to $40 from $47, implying 6.2% downside from the current $42.64. The call is sharply bearish relative to the consensus mean of $50.87. JP Morgan's track record shows 55% accuracy on 5,701 calls with a 5.6% average return, placing it in the middle among firms covering NKE. The consensus is heavily skewed to Hold (57%) with only 4% Sell ratings, making this a contrarian move. Price targets range from $23 to $94, and JP Morgan's $40 target sits near the low end. Over the past 30 days, NKE has suffered 14 downward EPS revisions for the current fiscal year and 11 for the next quarter, with zero upgrades in analyst actions outside this downgrade. Insider sales and institutional trimming align with the bearish view, while short interest remains elevated at 65.4%. The bottom line: this double downgrade, combined with falling estimates and insider selling, reinforces a negative outlook—though the high short interest warrants caution for aggressive shorts.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 46 analysts covering NKE, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy (39%), 26 Hold (57%), and 2 Sell (4%). The consensus is heavily biased toward neutral-to-positive, making JP Morgan's Underweight call a clear minority view.
The current price of $42.64 is 19.3% below the mean target of $50.87 and 9.3% below the median of $47. The high target is $94, low is $23. JP Morgan's new $40 PT is 6.2% below the current price and sits near the low end of the range.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | JP Morgan | downgrade | Underweight | $40.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | Jefferies | maintain | Buy | $75.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $48.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | Telsey Advisory Group | maintain | Market Perform | $47.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | Baird | reiterate | Outperform | — |
| 2026-07-01 | BNP Paribas | reiterate | Underperform | — |
| 2026-07-01 | Bernstein | maintain | Outperform | $72.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $45.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | Guggenheim | maintain | Buy | $60.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | Stifel | maintain | Hold | — |
In the past 30 days, NKE has seen 0 upgrades and 1 downgrade (this one). EPS estimates are trending lower: over the last 30 days, the current fiscal year estimate fell from $1.82 to $1.72 (14 downward revisions vs 2 up), and next-quarter estimates dropped from $0.58 to $0.53 (11 down vs 0 up). The revision trend is decisively negative.
Firm Track Record — JP Morgan
JP Morgan accuracy: 55% on 5701 calls | avg return: 5.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedbush | 67% | 2/3 | 0.2% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 60% | 3/5 | 2.5% | above average |
| Williams Trading | 50% | 2/4 | 8.9% | below average |
| Goldman Sachs | 50% | 2/4 | 10.1% | below average |
| Keybanc | 50% | 1/2 | 2.3% | below average |
| Oppenheimer | 50% | 1/2 | 4.3% | below average |
| Citigroup | 43% | 3/7 | 2.2% | below average |
| RBC Capital | 38% | 3/8 | -1.2% | below average |
| Evercore ISI Group | 33% | 2/6 | 0.7% | below average |
| BMO Capital | 33% | 1/3 | -5.1% | below average |
JP Morgan has a 55% accuracy rate on 5,701 calls with an average return of 5.6%. Among firms covering NKE, Wedbush leads with 67% accuracy (on 3 calls) and TD Cowen at 60% (5 calls). JP Morgan's accuracy is above several peers like B of A (22%) and Telsey (22%) but below the top performers. This call is a double-downgrade from a major firm with a moderate track record.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $2.24 | $1.50 — $4.00 | $47.5B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.45 | $0.41 — $0.50 | $11.4B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| 0y | $1.72 | $1.51 — $1.96 | $45.7B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.53 | $0.46 — $0.58 | $11.9B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
No congressional trades. One insider sale of $803k by director McCartney Philip occurred in June 2026 (bearish alignment). Institutional activity is mixed: Envestnet added 98.4% to its position, but several large holders trimmed significantly (Fjarde AP-fonden -27.6%, State of Michigan -33.5%, Eurizon -39.1%). Short interest is elevated at 65.4% of float (if days to cover, extremely high). The combination of insider selling, institutional trimming, and high short interest converges with the bearish analyst action.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 25, 2026 7d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Sep 22, 2026 10d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $36.10 $35.84 | ▼ −0.72% | ▲ +0.28% | $32.31 (−10.48%) |
Sep 14, 2026 17d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $37.05 $36.10 | ▲ +2.56% | ▲ +2.67% | $32.31 (+12.78%) |
Sep 10, 2026 21d ago | Insider Cluster | $36.80 $35.51 | ▼ −3.51% | ▼ −3.28% | $32.31 (−12.19%) |
Sep 9, 2026 23d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $37.35 $35.78 | ▼ −4.20% | ▼ −3.55% | $32.31 (−13.48%) |
Aug 26, 2026 5w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $38.59 $38.24 | ▲ +0.91% | ▲ +0.79% | $32.31 (+16.26%) |
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $41.32 $40.06 | ▼ −3.05% | ▼ −2.65% | $32.31 (−21.79%) |
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $41.32 $40.06 | ▼ −3.05% | ▼ −2.65% | $32.31 (−21.79%) |
Aug 7, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $41.70 $40.73 | ▼ −2.33% | ▼ −2.72% | $32.31 (−22.51%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | Court Ruling | $42.44 $40.50 | ▲ +4.57% | ▲ +4.92% | $32.31 (+23.85%) |
US Market Status
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