The Baird downgrade adds to a growing wall of bearish signals — insider selling, institutional exits, and downward EPS revisions. Traders should treat this as a confirmation of the negative trend rather than a standalone catalyst. Avoid adding long exposure until the stock stabilizes above $40 or shows a clear reversal in earnings momentum.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Baird double-downgraded NIKE (NKE) from Outperform to Neutral on September 14, slashing its price target to $44 from $70 — a 37% cut. The stock currently trades at $36.80, implying ~20% upside to Baird's new target but well below the consensus mean of $49.35. Baird has a 54% accuracy rate on 2,555 calls with a 4% average return, placing it near the middle of the 15 tracked firms. The consensus is heavily tilted toward Hold: 25 of 46 analysts rate NKE Hold, 18 are Buy/Strong Buy, and only 3 are Sell. The price target range is wide — from $23 low to $94 high — reflecting deep uncertainty. Momentum is negative: 2 downgrades vs 1 upgrade in the past 30 days, and EPS revisions for the current fiscal year show 5 downward revisions vs 1 upward. Insider selling continues, with five executives selling shares in August-September, though amounts are modest. The Baird downgrade aligns with the bearish consensus drift, but the magnitude of the PT cut signals heightened caution.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 46 analysts covering NKE, 18 rate it Buy/Strong Buy (39%), 25 rate it Hold (54%), and 3 rate it Sell (7%). The consensus is heavily tilted toward Hold, reflecting widespread caution but not outright bearishness. Baird's Neutral call is in line with the consensus center.
Current price: $36.80. Consensus mean target: $49.35 (34% upside). Median: $45.50 (24% upside). High: $94 (155% upside). Low: $23 (38% downside). Baird's $44 target is below the mean and median, sitting in the lower third of the range, consistent with its cautious stance.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Baird | downgrade | Neutral | $44.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $39.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | BMO Capital | initiate | Underperform | $30.00 |
| 2026-08-26 | Truist Securities | downgrade | Hold | $42.00 |
| 2026-08-25 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Sector Perform | $45.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | JP Morgan | downgrade | Underweight | $40.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | Jefferies | maintain | Buy | $75.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $48.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | Telsey Advisory Group | maintain | Market Perform | $47.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | Baird | reiterate | Outperform | — |
In the past 30 days, NKE has seen 2 downgrades (Baird, Truist Securities) and 1 upgrade. EPS revisions for the current fiscal year show 5 downward revisions vs 1 upward over 30 days, and the current-year EPS estimate has dropped from $1.72 to $1.71. The trend is clearly negative.
Firm Track Record — Baird
Baird accuracy: 54% on 2555 calls | avg return: 4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedbush | 67% | 2/3 | 0.2% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 60% | 3/5 | 2.5% | above average |
| Williams Trading | 50% | 2/4 | 8.9% | below average |
| Goldman Sachs | 50% | 2/4 | 10.1% | below average |
| Keybanc | 50% | 1/2 | 2.3% | below average |
| Oppenheimer | 50% | 1/2 | 4.3% | below average |
| Citigroup | 43% | 3/7 | 2.2% | below average |
| RBC Capital | 38% | 3/8 | -1.2% | below average |
| Evercore ISI Group | 33% | 2/6 | 0.7% | below average |
| BMO Capital | 33% | 1/3 | -5.1% | below average |
Baird has a 54% accuracy rate on 2,555 calls with a 4% average return, placing it in the middle of the 15 tracked firms. The best-performing firm on NKE is Wedbush (67% accuracy on 3 calls, 0.2% avg return), while the worst is Guggenheim (20% accuracy on 5 calls, -5.4% avg return). Baird's track record is average, not exceptional.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $0.45 | $0.38 — $0.50 | $11.4B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $1.71 | $1.36 — $1.96 | $45.6B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.52 | $0.39 — $0.58 | $11.9B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $2.20 | $1.50 — $4.00 | $47.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is consistent: 5 executives sold shares in August-September, totaling ~$678K. No insider buys. Congressional trades show 3 sells and 1 buy since July. Institutional activity is mixed but leans negative: Citadel exited 75% of its position, HighTower exited 81%, while Amundi added 59%. Short interest is elevated at 56.1% of TRF volume, indicating bearish positioning. The analyst downgrade converges with insider selling and institutional exits — a bearish consensus.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 25, 2026 7d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Sep 22, 2026 10d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $36.10 $35.84 | ▼ −0.72% | ▲ +0.28% | $35.15 (−2.63%) |
Sep 14, 2026 17d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $37.05 $36.10 | ▲ +2.56% | ▲ +2.67% | $35.15 (+5.13%) |
Sep 10, 2026 21d ago | Insider Cluster | $36.80 $35.51 | ▼ −3.51% | ▼ −3.28% | $35.15 (−4.48%) |
Sep 9, 2026 23d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $37.35 $35.78 | ▼ −4.20% | ▼ −3.55% | $35.15 (−5.89%) |
Aug 26, 2026 5w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $38.59 $38.24 | ▲ +0.91% | ▲ +0.79% | $35.15 (+8.91%) |
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $41.32 $40.06 | ▼ −3.05% | ▼ −2.65% | $35.15 (−14.93%) |
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $41.32 $40.06 | ▼ −3.05% | ▼ −2.65% | $35.15 (−14.93%) |
Aug 7, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $41.70 $40.73 | ▼ −2.33% | ▼ −2.72% | $35.15 (−15.71%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | Court Ruling | $42.44 $40.50 | ▲ +4.57% | ▲ +4.92% | $35.15 (+17.17%) |
US Market Status
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