The massive headline EPS beat is entirely artificial due to a one-time tariff recovery; the market is likely to look through it and focus on the deteriorating top-line trends (NIKE Direct -7%, Converse -32%) and absence of guidance. Expect initial volatility followed by selling pressure as the underlying demand weakness is priced in. Monitor upcoming analyst calls for any restructuring or demand recovery signals.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Nike reported fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of $10.97B (down 1% YoY) and GAAP diluted EPS of $0.72, which includes a $0.52 one-time benefit from IEEPA tariff recovery. Excluding that benefit, adjusted EPS was ~$0.20, still above the $0.11 consensus, but the underlying business weakened with NIKE Direct down 7% and Converse down 32%. No guidance was provided, and management cited 'continued top-line headwinds' and challenged sell-through.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q4 revenue $10.97B, down 1% reported and 4% currency-neutral YoY
- GAAP diluted EPS $0.72 vs consensus $0.11, but includes $0.52 one-time IEEPA tariff recovery
- NIKE Direct revenue fell 7% (digital -12%, owned stores -7%)
- Converse revenue plunged 32% reported (-34% currency-neutral)
- Full-year net income declined 3% to $3.1B; diluted EPS $2.10 (down 3%)
- No forward guidance provided; management noted 'sell-through remains challenged'
- Gross margin expanded 890bps to 49.2%, almost entirely due to $986M tariff recovery benefit
- Company returned $609M in dividends in Q4; share repurchases of $123M for FY26
Financial Impact
Q4 EPS beat by $0.61 vs consensus, but $0.52 is non-recurring; revenue missed internal expectations? (in-line per company). Underlying operating weakness persists.
Risk Factors
- Continued decline in NIKE Direct and Converse sales signals brand weakness
- One-time tariff recovery inflates margins and EPS, masking operational deterioration
- Greater China revenue down 12% reported (-17% currency-neutral) remains a structural headwind
- No guidance raises uncertainty about near-term recovery trajectory
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000320187-26-000076 |
| Document: nke-20260630.htm | 0000320187-26-000076 |
| Document: 0000320187-26-000076-index-headers.html | 0000320187-26-000076 |
| Document: 0000320187-26-000076-index.html | 0000320187-26-000076 |
| Document: 0000320187-26-000076.txt | 0000320187-26-000076 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000320187-26-000076 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 25, 2026 7d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Sep 22, 2026 10d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $36.10 $35.84 | ▼ −0.72% | ▲ +0.28% | $33.17 (−8.12%) |
Sep 14, 2026 17d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $37.05 $36.10 | ▲ +2.56% | ▲ +2.67% | $33.17 (+10.47%) |
Sep 10, 2026 21d ago | Insider Cluster | $36.80 $35.51 | ▼ −3.51% | ▼ −3.28% | $33.17 (−9.86%) |
Sep 9, 2026 23d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $37.35 $35.78 | ▼ −4.20% | ▼ −3.55% | $33.17 (−11.19%) |
Aug 26, 2026 5w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $38.59 $38.24 | ▲ +0.91% | ▲ +0.79% | $33.17 (+14.05%) |
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $41.32 $40.06 | ▼ −3.05% | ▼ −2.65% | $33.17 (−19.72%) |
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $41.32 $40.06 | ▼ −3.05% | ▼ −2.65% | $33.17 (−19.72%) |
Aug 7, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $41.70 $40.73 | ▼ −2.33% | ▼ −2.72% | $33.17 (−20.46%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | Court Ruling | $42.44 $40.50 | ▲ +4.57% | ▲ +4.92% | $33.17 (+21.84%) |
US Market Status
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