The strong quarterly beat may support near-term price momentum, but the guidance reduction and lower production outlook create headwinds. Watch for Q4 production updates and the Ohio acquisition close on Oct 1, which could unlock regulated earnings growth. The long-term 7-10% EPS growth target and $1.0-1.5B free cash flow outlook provide a positive narrative for patient holders.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
National Fuel Gas (NFG) reported Q3 fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.54, beating consensus of $1.22 by 26%, and revenue of $537.5M, beating $489.1M by 10%. However, the company lowered its FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.40-$7.60 from $7.45-$7.75, citing lower expected production and higher costs. The quarter was strong operationally, with the Integrated Upstream segment benefiting from hedging gains, and the Board approved a 4% dividend increase. The pending Ohio utility acquisition remains on track for October 1 close.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Adjusted EPS of $1.54 vs consensus $1.22 (26% beat)
- Revenue of $537.5M vs consensus $489.1M (10% beat)
- FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance lowered to $7.40-$7.60 from $7.45-$7.75
- Dividend increased 4% to $2.22 annual rate (56th consecutive annual increase)
- Ohio gas utility acquisition on track to close October 1, 2026
- Issued $1.5B of new notes to fund acquisition and refinance debt
- Production guidance reduced to 420-430 Bcf from 425-440 Bcf
- Integrated Upstream segment realized price of $2.81/Mcf, up 4% YoY, but production fell 7%
Financial Impact
EPS beat of $0.32 (26%) and revenue beat of $48.4M (10%) vs consensus, but FY guidance midpoint lowered by $0.10 (1.3%)
Risk Factors
- Lower production guidance (420-430 Bcf vs prior 425-440) due to well interactions and appraisal activities
- Higher capex in upstream ($580-605M) and pipeline ($235-265M) segments
- Commodity price exposure: NYMEX assumption maintained at $3.00/MMBtu but Appalachian spot lowered to $2.15
- Integration risk from pending Ohio utility acquisition
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000070145-26-000030 |
| Document: nfg-20260729.htm | 0000070145-26-000030 |
| Document: 0000070145-26-000030-index-headers.html | 0000070145-26-000030 |
| Document: 0000070145-26-000030-index.html | 0000070145-26-000030 |
| Document: 0000070145-26-000030.txt | 0000070145-26-000030 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000070145-26-000030 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $81.72 $83.58 | ▲ +2.28% | ▲ +2.72% | $76.71 (−6.14%) |
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | 424B5 | $81.72 $83.58 | ▲ +2.28% | ▲ +2.72% | $76.71 (−6.14%) |
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $82.47 $80.63 | ▼ −2.23% | ▼ −5.85% | $76.71 (−6.99%) |
Jul 29, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $82.47 $80.63 | ▼ −2.23% | ▼ −5.85% | $76.71 (−6.99%) |
Jun 26, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $78.58 $78.23 | ▼ −0.45% | ▼ −1.83% | $76.71 (−2.39%) |
Jun 10, 2026 16w ago | 8-K | $77.13 $76.78 | ▼ −0.45% | ▼ −3.89% | $76.71 (−0.55%) |
May 27, 2026 18w ago | 8-K | $78.12 $77.31 | ▼ −1.04% | ▼ −1.35% | $76.71 (−1.81%) |
May 27, 2026 18w ago | 424B5 | $78.30 $76.44 | ▼ −2.38% | ▼ −3.58% | $76.71 (−2.04%) |
May 26, 2026 18w ago | 8-K | $79.84 $76.94 | ▼ −3.63% | ▼ −4.72% | $76.71 (−3.93%) |
Apr 30, 2026 22w ago | 8-K | $84.38 $81.51 | ▲ +3.40% | ▲ +5.13% | $76.71 (+9.10%) |
US Market Status
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