The guidance cut and EPS miss signal near-term headwinds from lower natural gas prices and production delays. Traders should monitor natural gas forward curves and progress on the Tioga Pathway/Shippingport Lateral projects (in-service late 2026) and Ohio utility acquisition closing (Q4 2026) for catalysts.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
National Fuel reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.71, missing consensus of $2.84 by 4.6%, and lowered its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $7.45-$7.75 from $7.60-$8.10, citing lower natural gas price assumptions and reduced production. Revenue of $858.4M slightly beat estimates, but the guidance cut and EPS miss overshadow the top-line strength, pointing to headwinds in the upstream segment.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Adjusted EPS $2.71 vs consensus $2.84 (miss of 4.6%)
- Revenue $858.4M vs consensus $856.6M (beat of 0.2%)
- FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance lowered from $7.60-$8.10 to $7.45-$7.75
- NYMEX natural gas price assumption for rest of fiscal year cut from $3.75 to $3.00/MMBtu
- Production guidance reduced from 440-455 Bcf to 425-440 Bcf
- Operating cash flow $657M YTD; free cash flow $160M
- Integrated Upstream & Gathering segment adjusted EPS grew 21% YoY to $1.67
- Utility net income up 3% to $65M
Financial Impact
FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint lowered by $0.25 (from $7.85 to $7.60), implying ~$23M reduction in net income at midpoint
Risk Factors
- Further natural gas price weakness below $3.00 NYMEX
- Production shortfalls from completion delays or well underperformance
- Cost inflation from oil/diesel prices and increased land activity
- Regulatory or execution delays on pipeline expansion projects
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000070145-26-000014 |
| Document: nfg-20260429.htm | 0000070145-26-000014 |
| Document: 0000070145-26-000014-index-headers.html | 0000070145-26-000014 |
| Document: 0000070145-26-000014-index.html | 0000070145-26-000014 |
| Document: 0000070145-26-000014.txt | 0000070145-26-000014 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000070145-26-000014 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $81.72 $83.58 | ▲ +2.28% | ▲ +2.72% | $76.71 (−6.14%) |
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | 424B5 | $81.72 $83.58 | ▲ +2.28% | ▲ +2.72% | $76.71 (−6.14%) |
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $82.47 $80.63 | ▼ −2.23% | ▼ −5.85% | $76.71 (−6.99%) |
Jul 29, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $82.47 $80.63 | ▼ −2.23% | ▼ −5.85% | $76.71 (−6.99%) |
Jun 26, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $78.58 $78.23 | ▼ −0.45% | ▼ −1.83% | $76.71 (−2.39%) |
Jun 10, 2026 16w ago | 8-K | $77.13 $76.78 | ▼ −0.45% | ▼ −3.89% | $76.71 (−0.55%) |
May 27, 2026 18w ago | 8-K | $78.12 $77.31 | ▼ −1.04% | ▼ −1.35% | $76.71 (−1.81%) |
May 27, 2026 18w ago | 424B5 | $78.30 $76.44 | ▼ −2.38% | ▼ −3.58% | $76.71 (−2.04%) |
May 26, 2026 18w ago | 8-K | $79.84 $76.94 | ▼ −3.63% | ▼ −4.72% | $76.71 (−3.93%) |
Apr 30, 2026 22w ago | 8-K | $84.38 $81.51 | ▲ +3.40% | ▲ +5.13% | $76.71 (+9.10%) |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access