Monitor spot natural gas prices and production volumes relative to the lowered guidance assumptions. The Ohio utility acquisition adds regulatory earnings stability but is pending regulatory approval; delays could pressure near-term estimates. Watch for Q3 earnings for operational updates.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
NFG updated its FY26 guidance, raising adjusted EPS midpoint to $7.60 (10% YoY increase) but slashing NYMEX price assumptions to $3.00/MMBtu (from $3.75) and in-basin spot to $2.20 (from $2.85). Production guidance narrowed to 425-440 Bcf. The $2.62B CenterPoint Ohio acquisition remains on track for Q4 2026. The lowered commodity price deck partially offsets the positive EPS growth outlook.
Key Facts
- FY26 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $7.45-$7.75, midpoint $7.60, a 10% increase from FY25
- NYMEX natural gas price assumption lowered to $3.00/MMBtu (from $3.75) for remaining FY26
- In-basin spot price assumption lowered to $2.20/MMBtu (from $2.85)
- Production guidance narrowed to 425-440 Bcf (from 440-455 Bcf)
- Pipeline & Storage revenue guidance raised to $420-435M (from $415-430M)
- Acquisition of CenterPoint Ohio gas utility for $2.62B expected to close in Q4 calendar 2026
- Capital expenditures unchanged at $955-$1,065M
- Company reaffirms >10% consolidated 3-year adjusted EPS CAGR (FY24-27E)
Financial Impact
FY26 adjusted EPS of $7.60 at midpoint implies ~$2.12B in aggregate net income (assuming ~279M shares outstanding), but lower commodity price assumptions could reduce upstream revenue by ~$150-200M annually
Risk Factors
- Further declines in natural gas prices could pressure upstream margins and earnings
- Regulatory delays or unfavorable conditions for the CenterPoint Ohio acquisition
- Execution risk on pipeline expansion projects (Tioga Pathway, Shippingport Lateral) and cost overruns
- Higher-than-expected capital expenditures or operational costs
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-192083 |
| Document: d113249d8k.htm | 0001193125-26-192083 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-192083-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-192083 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-192083-index.html | 0001193125-26-192083 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-192083.txt | 0001193125-26-192083 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $81.72 $83.58 | ▲ +2.28% | ▲ +2.72% | $76.45 (−6.45%) |
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | 424B5 | $81.72 $83.58 | ▲ +2.28% | ▲ +2.72% | $76.45 (−6.45%) |
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $82.47 $80.63 | ▼ −2.23% | ▼ −5.85% | $76.45 (−7.30%) |
Jul 29, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $82.47 $80.63 | ▼ −2.23% | ▼ −5.85% | $76.45 (−7.30%) |
Jun 26, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $78.58 $78.23 | ▼ −0.45% | ▼ −1.83% | $76.45 (−2.71%) |
Jun 10, 2026 16w ago | 8-K | $77.13 $76.78 | ▼ −0.45% | ▼ −3.89% | $76.45 (−0.88%) |
May 27, 2026 18w ago | 8-K | $78.12 $77.31 | ▼ −1.04% | ▼ −1.35% | $76.45 (−2.14%) |
May 27, 2026 18w ago | 424B5 | $78.30 $76.44 | ▼ −2.38% | ▼ −3.58% | $76.45 (−2.36%) |
May 26, 2026 18w ago | 8-K | $79.84 $76.94 | ▼ −3.63% | ▼ −4.72% | $76.45 (−4.25%) |
Apr 30, 2026 22w ago | 8-K | $84.38 $81.51 | ▲ +3.40% | ▲ +5.13% | $76.45 (+9.40%) |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access