The double downgrade from a low-accuracy firm against a still-bullish consensus is a weak standalone signal, but the downward EPS revision trend and recent downgrade cluster warrant caution. Traders should watch for further downgrades or a break below $50 to confirm bearish momentum.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Benchmark double-downgraded MarineMax (HZO) from Buy to Hold on August 11, 2026, a significant bearish call given the firm's prior Buy rating. The downgrade adds to a deteriorating analyst backdrop: HZO has now seen two downgrades in the past 30 days, following B. Riley's move to Neutral on July 21. Consensus remains bullish overall — 9 of 13 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy, 4 at Hold — but the mean price target of $38.57 implies a steep 26% downside from the current $52.12. Benchmark's track record on HZO is poor (0% accuracy on 2 calls, -21.3% avg return), which tempers the signal's credibility. EPS estimates for the current fiscal year have been revised down over the past 30 days ($0.724 to $0.711), and the next quarter's estimate has dropped sharply from $0.084 to $0.047. Institutional activity is mixed: Citigroup and Russell Investments doubled their positions, while Morgan Stanley trimmed by 51%. No insider trades or congressional activity are recorded. The double downgrade from a low-accuracy firm against a still-bullish consensus creates a contrarian tension, but the downward EPS revision trend and recent downgrade cluster argue for caution.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is 69% Buy/Strong Buy (9 of 13 analysts), 31% Hold (4 analysts), 0% Sell. The direction remains bullish, but the recent downgrades are shifting the balance. The number of analysts covering HZO is 13.
Mean price target is $38.57, median $39.00, high $41.00, low $35.00. At $52.12, HZO trades 35% above the mean target, implying significant downside risk. Benchmark did not provide a new target, so its view sits below the consensus mean.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Benchmark | downgrade | Hold | — |
| 2026-07-21 | B. Riley Securities | downgrade | Neutral | $35.00 |
| 2026-07-06 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | — |
| 2026-01-30 | B. Riley Securities | reiterate | Buy | $29.00 |
| 2025-12-23 | Loop Capital | initiate | Buy | $29.00 |
| 2025-10-15 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $29.00 |
| 2025-06-16 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $32.00 |
| 2025-04-17 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $24.00 |
| 2025-04-14 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $26.00 |
| 2025-01-24 | Benchmark | reiterate | Buy | $40.00 |
Over the past 30 days, HZO has seen 2 downgrades (Benchmark and B. Riley) and 0 upgrades. EPS revisions are trending lower: the current fiscal year estimate has been revised down from $0.724 to $0.711 over 30 days, and the current quarter estimate dropped from $0.084 to $0.047. Revisions up vs down over 30 days are 4 up vs 3 down for the fiscal year, but 3 up vs 4 down for the current quarter.
Firm Track Record — Benchmark
Benchmark accuracy: 54% on 1703 calls | avg return: 6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 5 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | 100% | 3/3 | 13.7% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 75% | 3/4 | 18.3% | top tier |
| Stifel | 50% | 1/2 | 16.6% | below average |
| Benchmark | 0% | 0/2 | -21.3% | below average |
| DA Davidson | 0% | 0/3 | -19.1% | below average |
Benchmark has a 0% accuracy rate on 2 scored calls for HZO, with an average return of -21.3%, ranking as below average. The best-performing firms on HZO are Citigroup (100% on 3 calls, +13.7% avg return) and Truist Securities (75% on 4 calls, +18.3% avg return). DA Davidson also has 0% accuracy on 3 calls (-19.1% avg return).
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $1.57 | $1.15 — $2.00 | $2.3B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.05 | $0.01 — $0.12 | $542.8M | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.01 | $-0.24 — $0.23 | $512.0M | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $0.71 | $0.65 — $0.84 | $2.2B | ↑3 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
No insider trades or congressional activity are recorded. Institutional activity is mixed: Citigroup and Russell Investments more than doubled their positions, while Morgan Stanley trimmed by 51%. No short interest data is available. The analyst downgrade signal diverges from the bullish institutional buying by Citigroup and Russell, creating a mixed cross-platform picture.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 12, 2026 7w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $52.13 $52.20 | ▼ −0.13% | ▼ −2.03% | $52.35 (−0.42%) |
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $52.46 $52.17 | ▲ +0.55% | ▼ −0.51% | $52.35 (+0.21%) |
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $52.46 $52.17 | ▲ +0.55% | ▼ −0.51% | $52.35 (+0.21%) |
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | DEFA14A | $52.46 $52.17 | ▼ −0.55% | ▲ +0.51% | $52.35 (−0.21%) |
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | DEFA14A | $52.12 $52.17 | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +1.01% | $52.35 (+0.44%) |
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $52.12 $52.17 | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +1.01% | $52.35 (+0.44%) |
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $33.57 $52.25 | ▲ +55.64% | ▲ +52.34% | $52.35 (+55.94%) |
Jul 21, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $33.23 $52.18 | ▼ −57.03% | ▼ −54.46% | $52.35 (−57.54%) |
Jun 30, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $35.75 $33.96 | ▼ −5.01% | ▼ −2.82% | $52.35 (+46.43%) |
Apr 23, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $29.62 $33.59 | ▼ −13.40% | ▼ −8.77% | $52.35 (−76.74%) |
US Market Status
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