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GOVT-CONTRACT ·Filed Sep 16, 2026

GEO

GEO GROUP INC
NEUTRAL
Impact 3/10
Horizonmonths Processed1mo ago
Large government contract award ($500M+)
Actionable Insight • Neutral

This is a routine task order within an existing program. Monitor for future ISAP task orders or expansions, as well as any policy changes affecting alternatives to detention that could impact the program's size.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonmonths
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
GEO ▼ -8.74% at T+20d
NEUTRAL call -8.74% · α vs SPY -9.95% · entry $32.14 → $29.33
Next anchor: T+60d in 6w
Latest observation: T+26 -16.14% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Sep 17, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-1.18%
call -1.18% · α -1.06%
$31.76
settled 6w ago
T+5d
-0.56%
call -0.56% · α -1.16%
$31.96
settled 5w ago
T+20d
-8.74%
call -8.74% · α -9.95%
$29.33
settled 12d ago
T+60d
Pending
in 6w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

GEO Group subsidiary B.I. Incorporated received a $41 million task order from the Department of Homeland Security for the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP), an alternative to detention program. The award represents approximately 1.5% of GEO Group's annualized revenue and is a routine contract addition within its core government services business.

Key Financial Metrics

Award Amount
$41.0M
Agency
Department of Homeland Security
Contract Type
task_order
Rev Impact
+1.4%

Key Facts

  • Award amount: $41,018,888.74
  • Awarding agency: Department of Homeland Security
  • Recipient: B.I. INCORPORATED, a subsidiary of GEO Group
  • Contract type: Task order under ISAP (Intensive Supervision Appearance Program)
  • Period of performance starts 2026-09-30
  • Award represents ~1.5% of GEO Group's annualized revenue of $2.82 billion

Financial Impact

$41 million task order, approximately 1.5% of annualized revenue

revenue

Risk Factors

  • Government contracts subject to funding availability and continuing resolutions
  • ISAP program could be affected by changes in immigration enforcement policy

Investment Themes

Industrials & Manufacturing

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 federal contract record from official U.S. government contract data.

DocumentAccession Number
GOVT-CONTRACT Data (Synthetic)contract-70CDCR26FR0000125
18 reports for GEO
Performance horizon
67% Hit rate @ T+20 2 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 4 of 6 best @ T+60▲ +39.14%May 6, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for GEO — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 21, 2026
5d ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$26.94awaiting T+20—$28.03 (+4.05%)
Oct 8, 2026
18d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$31.13awaiting T+20—$28.03 (−9.96%)
Oct 5, 2026
22d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$32.34awaiting T+20—$28.03 (−13.33%)
Sep 16, 2026
5w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$32.14 $29.33▼ −8.74%▼ −9.95%$28.03 (−12.79%)
Sep 15, 2026
6w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$31.43 $30.81▼ −1.97%▼ −4.03%$28.03 (−10.82%)
Sep 9, 2026
6w ago
Court Ruling
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$31.38 $30.96▲ +1.34%▲ +3.46%$28.03 (+10.68%)
Aug 25, 2026
8w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$32.77 $31.96▼ −2.47%▼ −2.62%$28.03 (−14.46%)
Aug 24, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$32.16 $30.62▼ −4.79%▼ −5.76%$28.03 (−12.84%)
Aug 14, 2026
10w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$31.15 $31.26▲ +0.35%▲ +2.33%$28.03 (−10.02%)
Aug 6, 2026
11w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$30.69 $31.77▲ +3.52%▲ +3.92%$28.03 (−8.67%)
Showing 10 of 18

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Report published Sep 16, 2026