Market Cap
$4.0B
GEO
GEO GROUP INC
$31.36 ▲ +1.85%
Prev close $30.79Market cap$4.0B
ConsensusStrong Buy
12-mo target$37.75 (+20.4%)
▲ Bullish
Analyst conviction 9/10
Insider Selling Cluster (2 insiders)High Impact Filing (8/10)32 New Institutional Positions16 Institutional Exits Industrials & Manufacturing
Snapshot
The big-picture read on GEO right now — valuation, ownership and activity at a glance.
Cap Size
Mid Cap
Analyst Consensus
Strong Buy (86%)
Inst. Holders
50 funds
Inst. Value
$3.0B
Inst. Activity
32 buys / 16 sells
Insider Activity
$0.00 buy / $1.1M sell
Insider Net $
-$1.1M
Social Sentiment
41° Cool
SEC Reports
9
Price chart 30d +1.6%
Daily candles (open–high–low–close) with volume. Green = up day, red = down day.
No data for this timeframe.
Vol
Recent activity
The latest filings, insider trades, analyst actions, press and options flow — newest first.
Oct 1, 2026 short_volume
Short Volume: GEO — 75.6% short (0.4M / 0.6M)
Short: 421,347 | Exempt: 0 | TRF Vol: 557,482 | Short Ratio: 75.6% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool
Sep 11, 2026 Insider
Sep 10, 2026 SEC Albence Matthew sold 11,797 shares
Senior VP, Client Relations @ $31.46 ($371.1K)
The Tenth Circuit dismissed GEO Group's interlocutory appeal for lack of jurisdiction, rejecting GEO's argument that the
COURT-RULING — Impact 5/10
Sep 9, 2026 Event
Aug 26, 2026 SEC Menocal, et al v. GEO Group
Court ruling (ca10) — Docket: 26-01321
Two GEO insiders, including a senior VP, sold a combined $541K in open-market sales over two days. The total is ~0.013%
CLUSTER — Impact 2/10
Two GEO insiders sold a combined $426K in open-market sales over the past week, with Senior VP Matthew Albence selling $
CLUSTER — Impact 2/10
Aug 21, 2026 Insider
Brack Ronald A. sold 7,000 shares
See Remarks @ $32.00 ($224.0K)
Aug 20, 2026 Insider
Albence Matthew sold 10,000 shares
Senior VP, Client Relations @ $31.69 ($316.9K)
Analyst ratings buy % -2.3%
How Wall Street rates the stock today, and the latest firm-by-firm actions.
86% rate it Buy or better · 7 analysts
Recent analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Firm rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Jones Trading | MAINTAIN | Buy | 51% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Northland Capital Markets | MAINTAIN | Outperform | 51% |
Monthly consensus history
| Period | Str. Buy | Buy | Hold | Sell | Str. Sell | Buy % | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 86% | |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 86% | |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% | |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% | |
| May 1, 2026 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% | |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
Price targets
Where 4 covering analysts think GEO trades over the next 12 months.
$37.75 +20.4% upside Strong Buy
Current$31.36 Low$31.00 Median$40.00 High$40.00 4 analysts
$31.00$40.00
Analyst rating Strong Buy· 1.0/5 as of Oct 2, 2026
Social media sentiment mood +20.0%
Retail-investor mood aggregated across social media. 0° = very bearish, 100° = very bullish.
41°
Cool
BearishNeutralBullish
Recent posts
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Reports & filings
AI-scored summaries of recent SEC filings and press releases, with sentiment and impact.
9 SEC filing reports analyzed · 1 bullish, 2 bearish, 0 mixed, 6 neutral · avg impact 3.6/10.
BEARISHCOURT-RULING5/10
The Tenth Circuit dismissed GEO Group's interlocutory appeal for lack of jurisdiction, rejecting GEO
Sep 10, 2026
NEUTRALCLUSTER2/10
Two GEO insiders, including a senior VP, sold a combined $541K in open-market sales over two days. T
Aug 26, 2026
NEUTRALCLUSTER2/10
Two GEO insiders sold a combined $426K in open-market sales over the past week, with Senior VP Matth
Aug 24, 2026
NEUTRALCOURT-RULING2/10
The court affirmed a magistrate judge's order allowing GEO to supplement its statement of facts in s
Aug 19, 2026
Upcoming & catalyst events
Scheduled dates plus disclosed catalysts — earnings, dividends, enforcement, FDA and clinical-trial events. Colored dot = impact.
Oct 1, 2026
short_volume
Short Volume: GEO — 75.6% short (0.4M / 0.6M)
Short: 421,347 | Exempt: 0 | TRF Vol: 557,482 | Short Ratio: 75.6% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)
Sep 28, 2026
short_volume
Short Volume: GEO — 71.3% short (0.5M / 0.7M)
Short: 468,956 | Exempt: 0 | TRF Vol: 657,766 | Short Ratio: 71.3% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)
Sep 23, 2026
short_volume
Short Volume: GEO — 56.1% short (0.5M / 0.9M)
Short: 514,356 | Exempt: 5,448 | TRF Vol: 917,459 | Short Ratio: 56.1% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)
Sep 15, 2026
government_contract
$54M govt contract: THE GEO GROUP, INC.
Agency: Department of Homeland Security. DETENTION SERVICES IN LOS ANGELES AOR AT CONSOLIDATED ADELANTO AND DESERT VIEW ANNEX CENTERS
Sep 9, 2026
Enforcement
Menocal, et al v. GEO Group
Court ruling (ca10) — Docket: 26-01321
Earnings estimates
Forecast earnings per share and revenue by period — and whether estimates are rising.
| Period | EPS Est. | Range | Growth | 30d Rev | Up/Dn | Revenue | # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Q | $0.34 | $0.32–$0.36 | 38.0% | +0.0% | 4↑ 0↓ | $0.8B | 4 |
| Next Q | $0.31 | $0.30–$0.33 | 24.0% | -8.1% | 0↑ 4↓ | $0.8B | 4 |
| Current FY | $1.31 | $1.30–$1.31 | 52.0% | +0.0% | 4↑ 0↓ | $3.0B | 4 |
| Next FY | $1.71 | $1.56–$1.91 | 30.8% | +2.8% | 2↑ 1↓ | $3.3B | 3 |
Current-quarter EPS estimate — revision history
| When | EPS estimate | Change vs now |
|---|---|---|
| Current | $0.345 | — |
| 7d ago | $0.345 | — |
| 30d ago | $0.345 | — |
| 60d ago | $0.305 | +0.040 |
| 90d ago | $0.305 | +0.040 |
Institutional ownership
Which big funds own GEO (from quarterly 13F filings) and who is adding or trimming.
50 institutional holders with $3.0B total value (101,220,465 shares) as of 2026-Q2. Top holders: BlackRock,, Pentwater, UBS. Net buying activity: 32 institutions added/increased vs 16 reduced.
Top holders — 2026-Q2
| Fund | Shares | Value | % Tracked | Last move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. | 19,314,511 | $570.7M | 19.1% | — |
| Pentwater Capital Management LP | 10,582,000 | $312.7M | 10.5% | ADD +63.6% |
| UBS Group AG | 7,645,016 | $225.9M | 7.6% | DOUBLED +178.3% |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | 7,427,064 | $219.5M | 7.3% | — |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 5,761,739 | $170.3M | 5.7% | — |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 5,497,723 | $162.5M | 5.4% | ADD +31.9% |
| STATE STREET CORP | 4,938,884 | $145.9M | 4.9% | — |
| Rubric Capital Management LP | 4,131,219 | $122.1M | 4.1% | — |
| HSBC HOLDINGS PLC | 4,006,518 | $118.7M | 4.0% | NEW |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 3,334,033 | $98.5M | 3.3% | — |
Recent position changes
| Fund | Action | Prev | Current | Change | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | ADD | 4,169,349 | 5,497,723 | +31.9% | $162.5M |
| HSBC HOLDINGS PLC | NEW | — | 4,006,518 | — | $118.7M |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP | ADD | 1,036,433 | 2,043,766 | +97.2% | $60.4M |
| Assenagon Asset Management S.A. | NEW | — | 1,611,010 | — | $47.6M |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | TRIM | 1,777,760 | 920,251 | -48.2% | $27.2M |
| D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. | DOUBLED | 97,205 | 376,932 | +287.8% | $11.1M |
| Caption Management, LLC | DOUBLED | 51,699 | 368,635 | +613.0% | $10.9M |
| Walleye Trading LLC | DOUBLED | 134,157 | 300,292 | +123.8% | $8.9M |
| TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | DOUBLED | 69,478 | 259,360 | +273.3% | $7.7M |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | TRIM | 346,779 | 233,701 | -32.6% | $6.9M |
Insider activity
Buying and selling by company executives and directors (SEC Form 4).
19 insiders, 50 transactions. Net -$1.1M — $0.00 bought, $1.1M sold.
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Albence Matthew | Senior VP, Client Relations | SELL | 11,797 | $31.46 | $371.1K |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Brack Ronald A. | See Remarks | SELL | 7,000 | $32.00 | $224.0K |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Albence Matthew | Senior VP, Client Relations | SELL | 10,000 | $31.69 | $316.9K |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Koren Lindsay L. | Director | SELL | 3,500 | $31.31 | $109.6K |
| Jun 4, 2026 | ZOLEY GEORGE C | See Remarks | GIFT | 100,000 | — | — |
| Apr 1, 2026 | March Shayn P. | See Remarks | AWARD | 6,088 | — | — |
| Apr 1, 2026 | March Shayn P. | See Remarks | AWARD | 6,087 | — | — |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Suchinski Mark | D | 139,667 | — | — | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Ryan Christopher D. | See Remarks | TAX W/H | 15,449 | $14.35 | $221.7K |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Houston Donald E. | See Remarks | TAX W/H | 812 | $14.35 | $11.7K |
Short interest & halts
FINRA semi-monthly short positions, Reg SHO threshold status, and recent trading halts for GEO.
Shares short
9,576,993
Settlement Sep 15, 2026
Change vs prior
-9.8%
Semi-monthly cycle
Days to cover
4.6
At avg daily volume
Of shares outstanding
≈7.3%
Estimate — not % of float
All GEO filing & press-release reports (9)
- COURT-RULING reportSep 10, 2026
- CLUSTER reportAug 26, 2026
- CLUSTER reportAug 24, 2026
- COURT-RULING reportAug 19, 2026
- COURT-RULING reportJul 2, 2026
- 8-K reportMay 6, 2026
- COURT-RULING reportApr 21, 2026
- DEFA14A reportMar 19, 2026
- 8-K reportMar 5, 2026