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GOVT-CONTRACT ·Filed Sep 15, 2026

GEO

GEO GROUP INC
NEUTRAL
Impact 4/10
Horizonweeks Processed1mo ago
Large government contract award ($500M+)
Actionable Insight • Neutral

Monitor GEO's next quarterly filing for backlog growth and margin commentary on this contract. The award reinforces the company's core ICE detention business but is not large enough to materially alter revenue or earnings trajectory on its own.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d
GEO ▼ -1.97% at T+20d
NEUTRAL call -1.97% · α vs SPY -4.03% · entry $31.43 → $30.81
Next anchor: T+60d in 6w
Latest observation: T+27 -13.96% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Sep 16, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+2.26%
call +2.26% · α +1.13%
$32.14
settled 6w ago
T+5d
-2.58%
call -2.58% · α -4.40%
$30.62
settled 5w ago
T+20d
-1.97%
call -1.97% · α -4.03%
$30.81
settled 12d ago
T+60d
Pending
in 6w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

The GEO Group received a $53.6 million contract from the Department of Homeland Security for detention services at its Adelanto and Desert View Annex facilities in California. The award represents approximately 1.9% of annualized revenue, a notable but not transformative addition to the company's secure services backlog.

Key Financial Metrics

Award Amount
$53.6M
Agency
Department of Homeland Security
Contract Type
new
Rev Impact
+1.9%

Key Facts

  • Contract value: $53,590,841.12
  • Awarding agency: Department of Homeland Security
  • Period of performance starts September 20, 2026
  • Services: detention services at Adelanto and Desert View Annex centers in Los Angeles AOR
  • Award represents ~1.9% of annualized revenue ($2.82B)

Financial Impact

$53.6M contract, approximately 1.9% of annualized revenue

revenuebacklog

Risk Factors

  • Government funding risk: continuing resolutions or policy changes could affect contract duration or payment
  • Execution risk: operational costs at the facilities may compress margins
  • Political/regulatory risk: immigration detention policy shifts could impact future renewals

Investment Themes

Industrials & Manufacturing

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 federal contract record from official U.S. government contract data.

DocumentAccession Number
GOVT-CONTRACT Data (Synthetic)contract-70CDCR26FR0000131
18 reports for GEO
Performance horizon
67% Hit rate @ T+20 2 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 4 of 6 best @ T+60▲ +39.14%May 6, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for GEO — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 21, 2026
4d ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$26.94awaiting T+20—$28.13 (+4.40%)
Oct 8, 2026
17d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$31.13awaiting T+20—$28.13 (−9.65%)
Oct 5, 2026
21d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$32.34awaiting T+20—$28.13 (−13.03%)
Sep 16, 2026
5w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$32.14 $29.33▼ −8.74%▼ −9.95%$28.13 (−12.49%)
Sep 15, 2026
5w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$31.43 $30.81▼ −1.97%▼ −4.03%$28.13 (−10.52%)
Sep 9, 2026
6w ago
Court Ruling
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$31.38 $30.96▲ +1.34%▲ +3.46%$28.13 (+10.37%)
Aug 25, 2026
8w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$32.77 $31.96▼ −2.47%▼ −2.62%$28.13 (−14.17%)
Aug 24, 2026
8w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$32.16 $30.62▼ −4.79%▼ −5.76%$28.13 (−12.55%)
Aug 14, 2026
10w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$31.15 $31.26▲ +0.35%▲ +2.33%$28.13 (−9.71%)
Aug 6, 2026
11w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$30.69 $31.77▲ +3.52%▲ +3.92%$28.13 (−8.36%)
Showing 10 of 18

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Report published Sep 15, 2026