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GOVT-CONTRACT ·Filed Jul 30, 2026

GEO

GEO GROUP INC
NEUTRAL
Impact 3/10
Horizonmonths Processed2mo ago
Large government contract award ($500M+)
Actionable Insight • Neutral

The contract is routine and small in scale. Monitor for additional task orders under the same IDIQ vehicle or any changes in immigration detention policy that could affect future award volumes.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonmonths
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
GEO ▼ -10.75% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call -10.75% · α vs SPY -13.20% · entry $30.89 → $27.57
Entry = T+0 close
Jul 31, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+1.46%
call +1.46% · α +0.03%
$31.34
settled 3mo ago
T+5d
-0.65%
call -0.65% · α -4.16%
$30.69
settled 3mo ago
T+20d
+4.50%
call +4.50% · α +1.51%
$32.28
settled 8w ago
T+60d
-10.75%
call -10.75% · α -13.20%
$27.57
settled 10h ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

The GEO Group received a $25.4 million task order from the Department of Homeland Security for detention services at the Rivers Detention Center in Winton, NC. The award is small relative to the company's annualized revenue of approximately $2.82 billion, representing about 0.9%.

Key Financial Metrics

Award Amount
$25.4M
Agency
Department of Homeland Security
Contract Type
task_order
Rev Impact
+0.9%

Key Facts

  • Award amount: $25,436,468
  • Awarding agency: Department of Homeland Security
  • Task order for detention services at Rivers Detention Center in Winton, NC
  • Period of performance starts August 1, 2026
  • Award represents approximately 0.9% of annualized revenue ($2.82B)

Financial Impact

$25.4 million task order, ~0.9% of annualized revenue

revenue

Risk Factors

  • Government funding risk under continuing resolutions or policy changes
  • Detention services subject to political and regulatory shifts

Investment Themes

Industrials & Manufacturing

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 federal contract record from official U.S. government contract data.

DocumentAccession Number
GOVT-CONTRACT Data (Synthetic)contract-70CDCR26FR0000108
18 reports for GEO
Performance horizon
67% Hit rate @ T+20 2 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 4 of 6 best @ T+60▲ +39.14%May 6, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for GEO — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 21, 2026
5d ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$26.94awaiting T+20—$27.57 (+2.34%)
Oct 8, 2026
18d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$31.13awaiting T+20—$27.57 (−11.44%)
Oct 5, 2026
21d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$32.34awaiting T+20—$27.57 (−14.75%)
Sep 16, 2026
5w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$32.14 $29.33▼ −8.74%▼ −9.95%$27.57 (−14.22%)
Sep 15, 2026
5w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$31.43 $30.81▼ −1.97%▼ −4.03%$27.57 (−12.28%)
Sep 9, 2026
6w ago
Court Ruling
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$31.38 $30.96▲ +1.34%▲ +3.46%$27.57 (+12.14%)
Aug 25, 2026
8w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$32.77 $31.96▼ −2.47%▼ −2.62%$27.57 (−15.87%)
Aug 24, 2026
8w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$32.16 $30.62▼ −4.79%▼ −5.76%$27.57 (−14.27%)
Aug 14, 2026
10w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$31.15 $31.26▲ +0.35%▲ +2.33%$27.57 (−11.49%)
Aug 6, 2026
11w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$30.69 $31.77▲ +3.52%▲ +3.92%$27.57 (−10.17%)
Showing 10 of 18

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Tue (15h 58m)

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Report published Jul 30, 2026