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GOVT-CONTRACT ·Filed Jul 24, 2026

GEO

GEO GROUP INC
NEUTRAL
Impact 4/10
Horizonimmediate Processed3mo ago
Large government contract award ($500M+)
Actionable Insight • Neutral

This is a routine funding addition to an existing contract, not a new win. Monitor future modifications for cumulative scale and any changes in ICE detention policy that could affect facility utilization.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonimmediate
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
GEO ▼ -9.57% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call -9.57% · α vs SPY -13.62% · entry $30.93 → $27.97
Entry = T+0 close
Jul 27, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-0.61%
call -0.61% · α -0.85%
$30.74
settled 3mo ago
T+5d
+1.33%
call +1.33% · α -1.19%
$31.34
settled 3mo ago
T+20d
+4.04%
call +4.04% · α +0.74%
$32.18
settled 2mo ago
T+60d
-9.57%
call -9.57% · α -13.62%
$27.97
settled 7d ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

GEO Group received a $35.7M contract modification from DHS for detention and transportation services at two California facilities. The award represents approximately 1.3% of annualized revenue, a notable but not transformative addition to the company's core business.

Key Financial Metrics

Award Amount
$35.7M
Agency
Department of Homeland Security
Contract Type
modification
Rev Impact
+1.3%

Key Facts

  • Modification P00005 to contract 70CDCR26FR0000042 adds $35,682,865.67 in funding
  • Services cover detention and transportation at Mesa Verde and Golden State facilities in DHS's San Francisco area of responsibility
  • Awarding agency is the Department of Homeland Security
  • Annualized revenue of $2.82B makes this ~1.3% of revenue

Financial Impact

$35.7M modification, ~1.3% of annualized revenue

revenue

Risk Factors

  • Detention services are subject to political and policy shifts in immigration enforcement
  • Modification adds funding but does not extend the period of performance or guarantee future task orders

Investment Themes

Industrials & Manufacturing

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 federal contract record from official U.S. government contract data.

DocumentAccession Number
GOVT-CONTRACT Data (Synthetic)contract-70CDCR26FR0000042
18 reports for GEO
Performance horizon
67% Hit rate @ T+20 2 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 4 of 6 best @ T+60▲ +39.14%May 6, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for GEO — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 21, 2026
5d ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$26.94awaiting T+20—$28.03 (+4.05%)
Oct 8, 2026
18d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$31.13awaiting T+20—$28.03 (−9.96%)
Oct 5, 2026
22d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$32.34awaiting T+20—$28.03 (−13.33%)
Sep 16, 2026
5w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$32.14 $29.33▼ −8.74%▼ −9.95%$28.03 (−12.79%)
Sep 15, 2026
6w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$31.43 $30.81▼ −1.97%▼ −4.03%$28.03 (−10.82%)
Sep 9, 2026
6w ago
Court Ruling
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$31.38 $30.96▲ +1.34%▲ +3.46%$28.03 (+10.68%)
Aug 25, 2026
8w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$32.77 $31.96▼ −2.47%▼ −2.62%$28.03 (−14.46%)
Aug 24, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$32.16 $30.62▼ −4.79%▼ −5.76%$28.03 (−12.84%)
Aug 14, 2026
10w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$31.15 $31.26▲ +0.35%▲ +2.33%$28.03 (−10.02%)
Aug 6, 2026
11w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$30.69 $31.77▲ +3.52%▲ +3.92%$28.03 (−8.67%)
Showing 10 of 18

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Report published Jul 24, 2026