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GOVT-CONTRACT ·Filed Jul 15, 2026

GEO

GEO GROUP INC
NEUTRAL
Impact 4/10
Horizonmonths Processed3mo ago
Large government contract award ($500M+)
Actionable Insight • Neutral

Monitor for additional task orders under this contract vehicle and any future DHS procurement trends for detention services, which could signal further revenue growth from federal sources.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonmonths
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
GEO ▲ +5.10% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call +5.10% · α vs SPY +1.39% · entry $29.62 → $31.13
Entry = T+0 close
Jul 16, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-0.54%
call -0.54% · α +0.45%
$29.46
settled 3mo ago
T+5d
+4.90%
call +4.90% · α +6.57%
$31.07
settled 3mo ago
T+20d
+2.53%
call +2.53% · α -1.09%
$30.37
settled 3mo ago
T+60d
+5.10%
call +5.10% · α +1.39%
$31.13
settled 19d ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

The GEO Group was awarded a $30.2 million task order by the Department of Homeland Security for detention services at the Big Horn Detention Facility in Hudson, Colorado. The award represents approximately 1.07% of the company's annualized revenue, a notable but not transformative addition to its federal contract portfolio.

Key Financial Metrics

Award Amount
$30.2M
Agency
Department of Homeland Security
Contract Type
task_order
Rev Impact
+1.1%

Key Facts

  • Award amount: $30,229,855.99
  • Awarding agency: Department of Homeland Security
  • Period of performance begins July 9, 2026
  • Services: detention and detention-related services at Big Horn Detention Facility
  • Award represents ~1.07% of GEO's annualized revenue of $2.82 billion

Financial Impact

$30.2 million task order, approximately 1.07% of annualized revenue

revenue

Risk Factors

  • Government contracts are subject to funding availability and potential changes in immigration enforcement policy
  • Execution risk related to facility operations and staffing

Investment Themes

Industrials & Manufacturing

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 federal contract record from official U.S. government contract data.

DocumentAccession Number
GOVT-CONTRACT Data (Synthetic)contract-70CDCR26FR0000101
18 reports for GEO
Performance horizon
67% Hit rate @ T+20 2 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 4 of 6 best @ T+60▲ +39.14%May 6, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for GEO — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 21, 2026
6d ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$26.94awaiting T+20—$28.27 (+4.94%)
Oct 8, 2026
19d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$31.13awaiting T+20—$28.27 (−9.19%)
Oct 5, 2026
22d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$32.34awaiting T+20—$28.27 (−12.59%)
Sep 16, 2026
6w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$32.14 $29.33▼ −8.74%▼ −9.95%$28.27 (−12.04%)
Sep 15, 2026
6w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$31.43 $30.81▼ −1.97%▼ −4.03%$28.27 (−10.05%)
Sep 9, 2026
7w ago
Court Ruling
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$31.38 $30.96▲ +1.34%▲ +3.46%$28.27 (+9.91%)
Aug 25, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$32.77 $31.96▼ −2.47%▼ −2.62%$28.27 (−13.73%)
Aug 24, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$32.16 $30.62▼ −4.79%▼ −5.76%$28.27 (−12.10%)
Aug 14, 2026
10w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$31.15 $31.26▲ +0.35%▲ +2.33%$28.27 (−9.25%)
Aug 6, 2026
11w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$30.69 $31.77▲ +3.52%▲ +3.92%$28.27 (−7.89%)
Showing 10 of 18

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Thu (9h 58m)

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Report published Jul 15, 2026