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EFFECT ·Filed May 13, 2026

FRVO

Fervo Energy Co
NEUTRAL
Impact 6/10
Horizonimmediate Processed5mo ago SEC9999999995-26-001586
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight • Neutral

IPO pricing is expected within 1-2 days. Monitor the final IPO price and first-day trading for demand signals. The company remains pre-commercial with high capital needs — post-IPO cash runway and project milestones (Cape Station first power) will be key catalysts.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonimmediate
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
FRVO ▼ -29.26% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call -29.26% · α vs SPY -33.69% · entry $36.54 → $25.85
Entry = T+0 close
May 13, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+11.19%
call +11.19% · α +10.42%
$40.63
settled 6mo ago
T+5d
+4.02%
call +4.02% · α +4.16%
$38.01
settled 5mo ago
T+20d
-5.20%
call -5.20% · α -4.59%
$34.64
settled 5mo ago
T+60d
-29.26%
call -29.26% · α -33.69%
$25.85
settled 3mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Fervo Energy's S-1 registration for its IPO has been declared effective by the SEC as of May 12, 2026. The company can now proceed to price and list its shares, with the most recent amended prospectus targeting 70 million shares at $25-$26/share, implying gross proceeds of ~$1.75B at the midpoint. This is a pre-revenue enhanced geothermal systems developer with a $7.2B contracted PPA backlog but significant ongoing losses.

Key Facts

  • SEC declared effectiveness of S-1 registration (File No. 333-295165) on May 12, 2026
  • IPO is for Class A common stock; latest terms: 70M shares at $25-$26/share
  • Company is pre-revenue with $57.8M net loss in 2025; first power expected late 2026
  • Contracted PPAs total 658 MW with $7.2B backlog; 500 MW under construction at Cape Station

Financial Impact

Gross proceeds of ~$1.75B at the midpoint of the latest price range ($25.50/share × 70M shares); net proceeds after underwriting estimated at ~$1.67B

dilutioncashdebt

Risk Factors

  • Pre-revenue company with no operating cash flow; relies on IPO proceeds for development
  • Geothermal project execution risk — first power target is late 2026
  • Significant shareholder dilution from 70M share offering
  • Potential for lower pricing if market conditions shift before pricing

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-001586
Document: 9999999995-26-001586-index.html9999999995-26-001586
Document: 9999999995-26-001586.txt9999999995-26-001586
19 reports for FRVO
Performance horizon
33% Hit rate @ T+20 1 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 1 of 4 best @ T+20▲ +21.97%Aug 12, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for FRVO — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 12, 2026
14d ago
Institutional Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$12.87awaiting T+20—$7.97 (−38.07%)
Oct 1, 2026
25d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$14.46awaiting T+20—$7.97 (−44.88%)
Sep 1, 2026
7w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$19.75 $13.87▼ −29.77%▼ −30.95%$7.97 (−59.65%)
Aug 12, 2026
10w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$20.16 $15.73▼ −21.97%▼ −20.08%$7.97 (−60.47%)
Aug 12, 2026
10w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$20.16 $15.73▲ +21.97%▲ +20.08%$7.97 (+60.47%)
Jun 22, 2026
18w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$36.36 $24.65▼ −32.21%▼ −32.06%$7.97 (−78.08%)
Jun 12, 2026
19w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$35.19 $27.13▼ −22.90%▼ −24.68%$7.97 (−77.35%)
Jun 10, 2026
19w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$34.64 $27.35▼ −21.05%▼ −22.94%$7.97 (−76.99%)
May 15, 2026
23w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$41.06 $35.19▼ −14.30%▼ −16.41%$7.97 (−80.59%)
May 14, 2026
23w ago
424B4
NEUTRAL ★ 6/10
$40.63 $35.19▼ −13.39%▼ −12.53%$7.97 (−80.38%)
Showing 10 of 19

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens in 6h 51m

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Report published May 13, 2026