The massive EPS beat and bullish commentary on global nitrogen supply shortages suggest upside momentum. Traders should watch for further supply disruptions and India urea tender announcements. The Yazoo City outage and potential production resumption in late Q4 2026 is a key catalyst to monitor.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
CF Industries reported Q1 2026 GAAP EPS of $3.98, crushing the $2.73 consensus by 46%, on revenue of $1.99B (+19% YoY) which beat the $1.86B consensus by 6.8%. Results were boosted by a $170M litigation settlement, but underlying operations were strong as tight global nitrogen supply drove higher selling prices across all segments. No formal guidance was provided, but management highlighted a sustained tight supply-demand balance through 2027.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 GAAP diluted EPS $3.98 vs consensus $2.73 (+45.8% beat)
- Net sales $1.986B vs $1.663B YoY (+19.4%)
- Net earnings attributable to common stockholders $615M vs $312M YoY (+97%)
- Adjusted EBITDA $983M vs $644M YoY (+53%)
- Includes ~$170M gain from a litigation settlement
- Gross ammonia production at 99% of available capacity; full-year production guided to ~9.5M tons due to Yazoo City outage
- Company repurchased 155K shares for $15M in Q1; $1.7B remains under $2B buyback program
Financial Impact
EPS beat of $1.25 per share (46% above consensus) and revenue beat of $126M (6.8% above consensus). The litigation gain contributed ~$1.10 to EPS (based on $170M / 154.5M diluted shares).
Risk Factors
- Litigation settlement is non-recurring – normalized EPS likely lower
- Yazoo City Complex outage continuing until late Q4 2026 could pressure volumes
- Higher natural gas costs ($4.57/MMBtu vs $3.68 YoY) could compress margins if nitrogen prices soften
- Geopolitical risks: conflict in Middle East could exacerbate or ease supply constraints
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001104659-26-056338 |
| Document: tm2613543d1_8k.htm | 0001104659-26-056338 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-056338-index-headers.html | 0001104659-26-056338 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-056338-index.html | 0001104659-26-056338 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-056338.txt | 0001104659-26-056338 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001104659-26-056338 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 3, 2026 28d ago | 8-K | $133.35 $131.24 | ▼ −1.58% | ▼ −0.37% | $115.05 (−13.72%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $116.73 $117.05 | ▲ +0.27% | ▼ −0.94% | $115.05 (−1.44%) |
May 22, 2026 18w ago | 144 | $119.14 $113.33 | ▼ −4.88% | ▼ −6.09% | $115.05 (−3.43%) |
May 6, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $118.35 $125.50 | ▲ +6.04% | ▲ +4.54% | $115.05 (−2.79%) |
May 6, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $118.35 $125.50 | ▲ +6.04% | ▲ +4.54% | $115.05 (−2.79%) |
May 5, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $119.31 $130.39 | ▲ +9.29% | ▲ +8.16% | $115.05 (−3.57%) |
Mar 17, 2026 28w ago | DEFA14A | $126.37 $128.11 | ▲ +1.38% | ▲ +2.09% | $115.05 (−8.96%) |
Mar 12, 2026 29w ago | Insider Cluster | $135.99 $125.56 | ▼ −7.67% | ▼ −6.69% | $115.05 (−15.40%) |
Mar 5, 2026 30w ago | Insider Cluster | $110.70 $136.00 | ▼ −22.86% | ▼ −25.10% | $115.05 (−3.93%) |
Feb 27, 2026 31w ago | Insider Cluster | $99.53 $115.78 | ▼ −16.33% | ▼ −18.31% | $115.05 (−15.60%) |
US Market Status
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