The tight global nitrogen supply from the Middle East conflict is a structural tailwind; watch for continued pricing strength and any updates on the Yazoo City restart. The litigation gain is non-recurring, but core business fundamentals are strong.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
CF Industries reported Q1 2026 net earnings of $615M ($3.98/diluted share) on revenue of $1.99B, a significant beat vs consensus EPS of $2.43. Results were driven by tight global nitrogen supply following the Middle East conflict, lifting selling prices across all segments, partially offset by higher natural gas costs and the ongoing Yazoo City outage. Includes a $170M litigation settlement gain.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 GAAP diluted EPS $3.98 vs consensus $2.43 (+63.8% beat)
- Net sales $1,986M vs year-ago $1,663M (+19.4% YoY)
- Adjusted EBITDA $983M vs $644M YoY (+52.6%)
- Gross margin expanded to 37.6% from 34.4%
- Repurchased 155,000 shares for $15M in Q1; $1.7B remaining under buyback authorization
- Yazoo City complex outage expected to persist until late Q4 2026
- Litigation settlement gain of ~$170M included in results
Financial Impact
EPS beat of $1.55 per share vs consensus, driven by strong nitrogen pricing and the litigation gain
Risk Factors
- Extended Yazoo City outage beyond late Q4 2026 could pressure volumes
- Natural gas cost inflation ($4.57/MMBtu vs $3.68 YoY) may compress margins
- Middle East conflict resolution could normalize nitrogen supply and reduce pricing
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001324404-26-000011 |
| Document: cf-20260506.htm | 0001324404-26-000011 |
| Document: 0001324404-26-000011-index-headers.html | 0001324404-26-000011 |
| Document: 0001324404-26-000011-index.html | 0001324404-26-000011 |
| Document: 0001324404-26-000011.txt | 0001324404-26-000011 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001324404-26-000011 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 3, 2026 28d ago | 8-K | $133.35 $131.24 | ▼ −1.58% | ▼ −0.37% | $115.05 (−13.72%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $116.73 $117.05 | ▲ +0.27% | ▼ −0.94% | $115.05 (−1.44%) |
May 22, 2026 18w ago | 144 | $119.14 $113.33 | ▼ −4.88% | ▼ −6.09% | $115.05 (−3.43%) |
May 6, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $118.35 $125.50 | ▲ +6.04% | ▲ +4.54% | $115.05 (−2.79%) |
May 6, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $118.35 $125.50 | ▲ +6.04% | ▲ +4.54% | $115.05 (−2.79%) |
May 5, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $119.31 $130.39 | ▲ +9.29% | ▲ +8.16% | $115.05 (−3.57%) |
Mar 17, 2026 28w ago | DEFA14A | $126.37 $128.11 | ▲ +1.38% | ▲ +2.09% | $115.05 (−8.96%) |
Mar 12, 2026 29w ago | Insider Cluster | $135.99 $125.56 | ▼ −7.67% | ▼ −6.69% | $115.05 (−15.40%) |
Mar 5, 2026 30w ago | Insider Cluster | $110.70 $136.00 | ▼ −22.86% | ▼ −25.10% | $115.05 (−3.93%) |
Feb 27, 2026 31w ago | Insider Cluster | $99.53 $115.78 | ▼ −16.33% | ▼ −18.31% | $115.05 (−15.60%) |
US Market Status
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