The stock will likely sell off sharply on the massive EPS miss and deteriorating fundamentals. Watch for the Q2 2026 earnings call for EAF ramp-up progress and guidance on capacity utilization charges declining. The Roshel JV and Hanwha MOU provide long-term optionality but do not offset near-term cash burn.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Algoma Steel reported a massive Q1 2026 earnings miss, with EPS of -$2.90 versus consensus of -$1.15 (-151.4% miss) and revenue of $296.9M vs $306.0M estimate. The quarter was dominated by the permanent closure of the blast furnace and transition to EAF steelmaking, resulting in a $90.2M capacity utilization charge, $27.4M in direct tariff costs, and a 52.4% drop in shipments. While management highlights the strategic transformation and improving trajectory, the financial results are deeply negative.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- EPS of -$2.90 missed consensus of -$1.15 by 151.4%
- Revenue of $296.9M missed consensus of $306.0M and fell 42.6% YoY from $517.1M
- Net loss of $159.4M vs $24.5M loss in prior-year quarter
- Adjusted EBITDA loss of $28.7M, including $90.2M capacity utilization charge
- Shipments fell 52.4% YoY to 223,681 tons due to EAF transition
- Direct tariff costs of $27.4M, up from $10.5M in Q1 2025
- Blast furnace permanently closed on January 18, 2026; EAF now running 24/7
- Total available liquidity of ~$553M; drew $126M under LETL Facilities in the quarter
- Record plate sales of 116,000 NT; plate-first strategy scaling
- Roshel Algoma Defence JV and Hanwha Ocean MOU (up to US$250M potential value) announced
Financial Impact
EPS miss of $1.75 vs consensus; revenue miss of ~$9M; net loss widened by $134.9M YoY; $90.2M capacity utilization charge; $27.4M tariff costs
Risk Factors
- Continued negative cash flow from operations (-$12.2M) and reliance on LETL draws for liquidity
- Tariff costs expected to persist; U.S. Section 232 tariffs at 50%
- EAF Unit 2 commissioning delay or ramp-up issues could prolong losses
- Canadian plate market oversupply and pricing pressure
- High debt load ($485M senior secured notes + $271M governmental loans)
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3293548 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 2, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $4.39 $4.30 | ▲ +1.94% | ▲ +0.98% | $4.34 (+1.03%) |
Aug 18, 2026 6w ago | 6-K | $4.09 $3.99 | ▲ +2.44% | ▲ +2.24% | $4.34 (−6.11%) |
Aug 17, 2026 6w ago | Institutional Cluster | $4.16 $4.01 | ▼ −3.61% | ▼ −2.42% | $4.34 (+4.33%) |
Jul 29, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $3.84 $3.97 | ▼ −3.52% | ▲ +0.10% | $4.34 (−13.17%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $3.83 $4.35 | ▲ +13.58% | ▲ +14.26% | $4.34 (+13.32%) |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $4.71 $4.76 | ▲ +0.96% | ▲ +0.52% | $4.34 (−7.86%) |
Jun 4, 2026 17w ago | Press Release | $4.96 $5.01 | ▲ +1.01% | ▲ +0.44% | $4.34 (−12.50%) |
May 12, 2026 20w ago | Press Release | $5.00 $5.18 | ▼ −3.60% | ▼ −4.76% | $4.34 (+13.20%) |
Apr 30, 2026 22w ago | Press Release | $4.82 $5.14 | ▲ +6.64% | ▲ +4.29% | $4.34 (−9.96%) |
Apr 7, 2026 25w ago | Press Release | $4.41 $5.07 | ▲ +14.97% | ▲ +9.64% | $4.34 (−1.59%) |
US Market Status
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