Monitor Q4 2026 for first commercial shipments from EAF Unit Two and any update on steel pricing trends; the company's transformation thesis hinges on successful ramp-up of both EAF units and sustained price improvement.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Algoma Steel issued Q3 2026 guidance well below consensus, expecting Adjusted EBITDA of negative $10M to negative $20M and shipments of ~145,000 tons, reflecting continued disruption from the Lake Superior Power turbine outage and EAF Unit Two commissioning delays. The EPS miss of -15.6% versus consensus (-$0.78 actual vs -$0.68 estimate) extends a multi-quarter streak of negative earnings surprises, with the company still in the early stages of its EAF transition.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 guidance: Adjusted EBITDA negative $10M to negative $20M, including ~$50-55M capacity utilization adjustment benefit
- Total steel shipments expected ~145,000 tons for the quarter ended September 30, 2026
- EPS of -$0.78 missed consensus of -$0.68 by 15.6%
- LSP turbine replacement completed and plant at full power; EAF Unit Two first heat expected in coming days
- Fourth consecutive quarter of negative EPS surprises per Nasdaq Street-EPS reference history
Financial Impact
Guidance implies a significant operating loss quarter; Adjusted EBITDA of -$10M to -$20M vs prior quarters already in negative territory
Risk Factors
- Further delays in EAF Unit Two commercial production could extend cash burn and pressure liquidity
- Steel price weakness or unfavorable sales mix could worsen Adjusted EBITDA beyond guided range
- Continued negative earnings surprises may erode investor confidence and limit equity financing options
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3373452 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 19, 2026 7d ago | 25-NSE | $4.11 | awaiting T+5 | — | $4.86 (+18.25%) |
Oct 15, 2026 11d ago | 6-K | $4.03 $4.74 | ▲ +17.62% | ▲ +18.05% | $4.86 (+20.60%) |
Oct 15, 2026 11d ago | Press Release | $4.03 $4.74 | ▲ +17.62% | ▲ +18.05% | $4.86 (+20.60%) |
Oct 1, 2026 25d ago | Press Release | $4.34 $4.30 | ▲ +0.92% | ▲ +2.08% | $4.86 (−11.98%) |
Sep 2, 2026 7w ago | 6-K | $4.39 $4.30 | ▲ +1.94% | ▲ +0.98% | $4.86 (−10.83%) |
Aug 17, 2026 10w ago | 6-K | $4.09 $3.99 | ▲ +2.44% | ▲ +2.24% | $4.86 (−18.83%) |
Aug 16, 2026 10w ago | Institutional Cluster | $4.16 $4.01 | ▼ −3.61% | ▼ −2.42% | $4.86 (+16.83%) |
Jul 29, 2026 12w ago | Press Release | $3.84 $3.97 | ▼ −3.52% | ▲ +0.10% | $4.86 (−26.73%) |
Jul 16, 2026 14w ago | Press Release | $3.83 $4.35 | ▲ +13.58% | ▲ +14.26% | $4.86 (+26.89%) |
Jun 11, 2026 19w ago | Institutional Cluster | $4.71 $4.76 | ▲ +0.96% | ▲ +0.52% | $4.86 (+3.18%) |
US Market Status
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