The massive EPS and revenue miss vs consensus will likely pressure the stock, but the dramatic YoY operational turnaround from a net loss to strong profitability provides a floor. Watch the 10 a.m. ET conference call for any color on Q2 margin trends and the St. Charles FCC project timeline — the lack of formal guidance leaves the stock vulnerable to macro commodity moves.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Valero Energy reported Q1 2026 GAAP net income of $1.263B ($4.22/share), a massive turnaround from a net loss of $595M (-$1.90/share) in Q1 2025, driven by a sharp recovery in refining margins. However, the $4.22 GAAP EPS was a 47% miss vs the $7.96 consensus estimate, and the company provided no formal forward guidance, creating significant uncertainty around the sustainability of margins.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- GAAP EPS of $4.22 vs consensus of $7.96 — a 47% miss
- Revenue of $32.381B vs consensus of $36.31B — an 11% miss
- Revenue grew 7.0% YoY to $32.381B from $30.258B
- Refining segment operating income surged to $1.806B from a loss of $530M YoY
- Renewable Diesel swung to $139M operating income from a $141M loss YoY
- Ethanol operating income rose to $90M from $20M YoY
- Adjusted net cash from operations was $1.591B vs $862M YoY
- Issued $850M of 5.150% Senior Notes due 2036 in March 2026
- Quarterly dividend increased 6% to $1.20/share in January 2026
- Stockholder cash returns totaled $938M in Q1 2026
- No formal earnings guidance provided in the release
Financial Impact
EPS of $4.22 missed consensus of $7.96 by $3.74 (47%); revenue of $32.381B missed consensus of $36.31B by $3.929B (11%)
Risk Factors
- Refining margins are highly sensitive to crude oil prices and product demand; Q1 margins may not be sustainable
- U.S. West Coast refining losses persist at -$118M adjusted operating loss
- Total debt rose to $9.191B from $8.261B at year-end 2025 due to the $850M note issuance
- Benicia refinery idling process is ongoing, with incremental depreciation costs of ~$100M in Q1
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-028602 |
| Document: vlo-20260430.htm | 0001628280-26-028602 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-028602-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-028602 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-028602-index.html | 0001628280-26-028602 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-028602.txt | 0001628280-26-028602 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001628280-26-028602 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $311.71 $346.59 | ▲ +11.19% | ▲ +7.22% | $406.30 (+30.35%) |
May 8, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $240.14 $255.82 | ▲ +6.53% | ▲ +6.51% | $406.30 (+69.20%) |
Apr 30, 2026 22w ago | 8-K | $251.91 $244.92 | ▼ −2.77% | ▼ −8.00% | $406.30 (+61.29%) |
Mar 19, 2026 28w ago | DEFA14A | $239.10 $226.28 | ▼ −5.36% | ▼ −14.68% | $406.30 (+69.93%) |
US Market Status
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