The massive refining margin expansion (+199% per barrel) is the core driver — watch for sustainability of diesel and gasoline cracks in Q4 2026 commentary on the conference call. The near-zero net leverage (4%) and $9.8B cash position provide significant capital-return flexibility.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Valero Energy reported Q3 2026 GAAP EPS of $23.89, a massive beat vs the $17.71 consensus, driven by a surge in refining margins (refining margin per barrel of throughput nearly tripled YoY to $39.24). Revenue of $46.1B also exceeded the $41.36B estimate. The company repaid $526M in maturing debt, ending the quarter with a net-debt-to-cap ratio of just 4%.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- GAAP EPS $23.89 vs consensus $17.71 (+35% beat)
- Revenue $46.1B vs consensus $41.36B (+11.5% beat)
- Revenue YoY growth: +43.3% ($46.1B vs $32.2B in Q3 2025)
- Refining segment operating income surged to $8.8B from $1.6B YoY
- Refining margin per barrel of throughput: $39.24 vs $13.14 YoY (+199%)
- Adjusted net cash from operations: $7.3B
- Debt-to-cap ratio net of cash: 4% (improved from 11% at Q2 2026)
- Repaid $100M of 7.65% debentures and $426M of 3.40% senior notes
- St. Charles FCC optimization project completed on schedule and within budget
Financial Impact
EPS of $23.89 vs consensus of $17.71 — a $6.18/share positive surprise; revenue of $46.1B vs consensus of $41.36B — a $4.7B positive surprise
Risk Factors
- Refining margins are highly cyclical and mean-reverting; the current level is unsustainably high
- Potential for a sharp reversal in crude oil prices or a recession-driven demand drop
- The Benicia refinery idling is complete but carries ongoing decommissioning costs
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-066795 |
| Document: vlo-20261022.htm | 0001628280-26-066795 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-066795-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-066795 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-066795-index.html | 0001628280-26-066795 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-066795.txt | 0001628280-26-066795 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001628280-26-066795 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 22, 2026 5d ago | 8-K | $426.28 $419.28 | ▼ −1.64% | ▼ −1.12% | $400.91 (−5.95%) |
Oct 16, 2026 10d ago | Institutional Cluster | $433.31 $433.42 | ▲ +0.03% | ▼ −0.31% | $400.91 (−7.48%) |
Oct 6, 2026 20d ago | 3/A | $424.10 $443.80 | ▲ +4.65% | ▲ +5.07% | $400.91 (−5.47%) |
Sep 18, 2026 5w ago | 8-K | $413.28 $393.27 | ▼ −4.84% | ▼ −6.39% | $400.91 (−2.99%) |
Jul 30, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $311.71 $311.44 | ▼ −0.09% | ▼ −0.75% | $400.91 (+28.61%) |
May 8, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $240.14 $247.01 | ▲ +2.86% | ▲ +2.63% | $400.91 (+66.95%) |
Apr 30, 2026 25w ago | 8-K | $251.91 $246.31 | ▼ −2.22% | ▼ −2.44% | $400.91 (+59.15%) |
Mar 19, 2026 31w ago | DEFA14A | $239.10 $237.26 | ▼ −0.77% | ▼ −1.87% | $400.91 (+67.67%) |
US Market Status
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