The cluster's net buying is notable given the Q4 fuel-cost headwind that drove the EPS guidance miss. Watch for Q4 2026 actual fuel costs and whether the revenue acceleration to >20% YoY materializes, as that will determine if the buyers' thesis (revenue growth outweighs margin pressure) or the sellers' thesis (fuel costs crush earnings) proves correct.
How the stock moved after the report
NEUTRAL VIEWSTOCK ABOVE ENTRY AT T+5- T+0 · Nov 3 $107.21entry
- T+1 · 8d ago +7.97%α +6.32% · $115.76
- T+5 · yesterday +12.45%α +13.04% · $120.56
- T+6 · todayOpen
- T+20 · in 20d Pending
- T+60 · in 3mo Pending
How similar events traded
Executive Summary
A mixed institutional cluster for UAL in Q3 2026 shows 6 buyers adding $99.3M in net new holdings (led by Assenagon and Calamos more than doubling positions) against 3 sellers trimming $11.5M. The buying occurred during a quarter that ended with a record Q3 earnings report on Oct. 20, which beat revenue expectations but missed EPS consensus and guided Q4 well below Street estimates due to a sharp fuel cost assumption. The cluster's net buying suggests some active managers saw value in the revenue growth story, while the sellers likely reacted to the margin pressure from fuel costs.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: $87.8M
▲ Buyers (6)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assenagon Asset Management | DOUBLED | +275.4% | $86.6M | $58.3M |
| Calamos Advisors | DOUBLED | +152% | $70.8M | $36.4M |
| Creative Planning | ADD | +33.4% | $36.6M | $3.0M |
▼ Sellers (3)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Financial | TRIM | -38.1% | $21.1M | -$10.5M |
| Alps Advisors | TRIM | -60.4% | $1.3M | -$864.0K |
Key Facts
- 6 institutional buyers added a net $99.3M in UAL positions during Q3 2026
- 3 institutional sellers trimmed a net $11.5M in UAL positions
- Assenagon Asset Management doubled its stake (+275.4%) to $86.6M, the largest buyer by value
- Calamos Advisors doubled its stake (+152.0%) to $70.8M
- Mackenzie Financial trimmed 38.1% of its stake, reducing by $10.5M, the largest seller
- Q3 2026 earnings (filed Oct. 20) showed record revenue of $17.9B (+17.4% YoY) but adjusted EPS of $2.54 missed consensus of $2.57
- Q4 2026 guidance of $0.50-$1.50 adjusted EPS was well below consensus of $1.21 due to a fuel price assumption of $4.80/gallon vs Street's $4.35
- No open-market insider buying during the quarter; insider-insitutional confluence score is low (22/100)
Financial Impact
6 institutions accumulated $99.3M in new UAL holdings while 3 institutions reduced holdings by $11.5M, for net institutional buying of approximately $87.8M
Risk Factors
- 13F data is 45+ days stale; positions may have been unwound since quarter-end
- Q4 2026 fuel cost assumption of $4.80/gallon is significantly above Street estimates and could further pressure earnings
- No insider buying corroborates the institutional buying signal
- The cluster is dominated by asset managers, not activist or event-driven funds, reducing signal intensity
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-UAL-2026-Q3 |
Track record
38 reports on UAL
4 of 8 bullish or bearish reports moved the stock their way by T+1. Best: +35.56% at T+60 after the Apr 10, 2026 report. 5 of 8 went positive at some point.
Filters
- Nov 10, 2026today Insider Cluster Bearish 4/10 Entry $120.23 settles Nov 12
- Nov 10, 20261d ago 144 Neutral 3/10 Entry $120.56 to $118.37 ▼ −1.82% −3.14% vs SPY
- Nov 9, 20262d ago 144 Neutral 2/10 Entry $120.38 to $120.56 ▲ +0.15% +0.52% vs SPY
- Nov 9, 20262d ago 144 Neutral 2/10 Entry $120.38 to $120.56 ▲ +0.15% +0.52% vs SPY
- Nov 9, 20262d ago 144 Neutral 2/10 Entry $120.38 to $120.56 ▲ +0.15% +0.52% vs SPY
- Nov 6, 20265d ago 144 Neutral 2/10 Entry $112.74 to $120.38 ▲ +6.78% +4.41% vs SPY
- Nov 3, 20268d ago Institutional Cluster Mixed 4/10 Viewing Entry $107.21 to $115.76 ▲ +7.97% +6.32% vs SPY
- Oct 30, 202612d ago 144 Neutral 2/10 Entry $104.24 to $109.24 ▲ +4.80% +5.28% vs SPY
- Oct 23, 202620d ago Court Ruling Neutral 2/10 Entry $100.69 to $104.71 ▲ +3.99% +3.43% vs SPY
- Oct 21, 202622d ago Court Ruling Neutral 1/10 Entry $102.00 to $97.93 ▼ −3.99% −3.47% vs SPY
US Market Status
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