The Seaport upgrade is a high-conviction contrarian call from a below-average-accuracy firm, but it aligns with strong upward estimate revisions and extreme short interest. Traders should watch for continued EPS momentum and potential short squeeze dynamics — the $400 target is aggressive but not impossible if the analog cycle turns. However, heavy insider selling warrants caution; consider waiting for a pullback or confirmation from higher-accuracy firms.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Seaport Global double-upgraded Texas Instruments (TXN) from Neutral to Buy on May 22, setting a $400 price target that implies 34% upside from the current $298.39. The call is a stark contrarian to the consensus: 56% of analysts rate TXN a Hold or worse, and the mean target of $285.34 sits below the stock. Seaport's 51% accuracy on 239 calls and 1.5% average return place it below average among covering firms. EPS estimates have been revised up sharply over the past 30 days — 22 upward revisions for the current quarter and 29 for the current year — with zero downgrades. Insider selling is heavy, with five C-suite members selling over $21M in May, including CFO Lizardi's $9.9M sale. Short interest is elevated at 55.2% of float, suggesting crowded bearish positioning. The next earnings report is due July 20, roughly 60 days out. The bottom line: a high-conviction contrarian upgrade from a below-average-accuracy firm, but supported by strong upward estimate momentum and heavy short interest — a potential squeeze setup if estimates continue rising.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 45 analysts covering TXN, 18 (40%) rate it Buy/Strong Buy, 24 (53%) Hold, and 3 (7%) Sell/Strong Sell. The consensus is heavily tilted toward neutral-to-bearish, making Seaport's upgrade a clear outlier. The mean target of $285.34 is below the current price, so the consensus sees downside.
Current price: $298.39. Mean target: $285.34 (implied -4.4%). Median target: $297.50 (near current). High: $340 (prior high). Low: $200. Seaport's $400 target is 17.6% above the prior high and 40% above the mean — the most bullish on the Street by a wide margin.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Seaport Global | upgrade | Buy | $400.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $300.00 |
| 2026-05-13 | Cantor Fitzgerald | maintain | Neutral | $300.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $295.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $280.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $280.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Jefferies | maintain | Hold | $260.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Truist Securities | maintain | Hold | $278.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | TD Cowen | maintain | Buy | $300.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Cantor Fitzgerald | maintain | Neutral | $280.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 3 upgrades, 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are overwhelmingly positive: 22 upward revisions for the current quarter (0 down), 29 for the current year (0 down), and 27 for next year (0 down) over the past 30 days. Estimates have been raised ~22% for the current quarter and ~19% for the current year over the past month. Momentum is strongly bullish on fundamentals.
Firm Track Record — Seaport Global
Seaport Global accuracy: 51% on 239 calls | avg return: 1.5%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | 80% | 4/5 | 10.2% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 80% | 4/5 | 8.6% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 75% | 3/4 | 9.3% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 67% | 2/3 | 1.6% | top tier |
| Benchmark | 67% | 6/9 | 2.8% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 67% | 6/9 | 3.8% | top tier |
| Stifel | 67% | 4/6 | 10.9% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 67% | 2/3 | 8.6% | top tier |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 64% | 7/11 | 4.1% | top tier |
| Barclays | 60% | 3/5 | 8.6% | above average |
Seaport Global has a 51% accuracy rate on 239 calls with a 1.5% average return — below average among firms covering TXN. Top-tier firms on TXN include Baird (80% on 5 calls, +10.2% avg return), JP Morgan (80% on 5, +8.6%), and Evercore ISI (75% on 4, +9.3%). Seaport's track record is weak, but the double-upgrade magnitude signals conviction.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $1.92 | $1.66 — $2.04 | $5.2B | ↑21 ↓0 |
| +1q | $2.12 | $1.86 — $2.34 | $5.6B | ↑20 ↓0 |
| 0y | $7.67 | $6.54 — $8.29 | $21.0B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $8.91 | $7.13 — $12.00 | $23.3B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is heavy and concentrated: five C-suite members sold over $21M in May, including CFO Lizardi ($9.9M) and EVP Cox ($2.6M). This is a bearish signal that partially offsets the bullish upgrade. Institutional activity is mixed: BofA trimmed 39.4% of its $2B position, while Norges Bank exited entirely. However, Two Sigma more than doubled its stake (+2707%) and Renaissance Technologies initiated a $136M position. Short interest is 55.2% of float — extremely elevated — suggesting crowded bearish positioning that could fuel a squeeze if estimates continue rising. Congressional activity: Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) sold $500K-$1M in March — a minor negative.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 22, 2026 10w ago | Press Release | $284.99 $265.45 | ▼ −6.86% | ▼ −10.17% | $296.05 (+3.88%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $284.02 $279.58 | ▲ +1.56% | ▲ +6.01% | $296.05 (−4.24%) |
Jun 2, 2026 17w ago | 8-K | $308.04 $298.41 | ▼ −3.13% | ▼ −2.00% | $296.05 (−3.89%) |
May 22, 2026 19w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $309.46 $332.28 | ▲ +7.38% | ▲ +7.54% | $296.05 (−4.33%) |
May 15, 2026 19w ago | Insider Cluster | $299.77 $313.34 | ▲ +4.53% | ▲ +2.34% | $296.05 (−1.24%) |
May 11, 2026 20w ago | Insider Cluster | $297.62 $288.63 | ▼ −3.02% | ▼ −2.72% | $296.05 (−0.53%) |
Apr 27, 2026 22w ago | Insider Cluster | $269.36 $324.89 | ▲ +20.62% | ▲ +15.66% | $296.05 (+9.91%) |
Apr 24, 2026 23w ago | Insider Cluster | $277.06 $298.39 | ▲ +7.70% | ▲ +3.67% | $296.05 (+6.86%) |
Apr 24, 2026 23w ago | Insider Cluster | $277.06 $298.39 | ▲ +7.70% | ▲ +3.67% | $296.05 (+6.86%) |
Apr 24, 2026 23w ago | Insider Cluster | $277.06 $298.39 | ▲ +7.70% | ▲ +3.67% | $296.05 (+6.86%) |
US Market Status
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