The double upgrade from Freedom Broker, combined with uniformly rising EPS estimates and a bullish consensus, reinforces the positive setup for TXN. However, elevated short interest and insider selling introduce caution — the stock's next move may depend on whether the fundamental improvement outweighs the bearish positioning.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Freedom Broker double-upgraded Texas Instruments (TXN) from Hold to Buy on October 22, 2026, raising its price target to $330 from $260 — a 26.9% increase. The new target implies 15.9% upside from the current price of $284.65. Freedom Broker has a 61% accuracy rate on 127 calls and an average return of 13.8%, placing it in the above-average tier among firms covering TXN. The consensus on TXN is bullish: 22 of 40 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 Hold, and 3 Sell/Strong Sell. The mean price target is $331.11, median $340, with a high of $400 and low of $225. Freedom Broker's $330 target is slightly below the mean but above the current price. Analyst momentum is positive — 1 upgrade and 0 downgrades in the last 30 days, and EPS revisions have been uniformly upward across all periods. Insider selling by VP Abraham Tsedeniya in August 2026 ($1.85M total) is a mild negative but not a strong contrarian signal. Institutional activity is mixed, with several large European funds adding and two trimming. Short interest is elevated at 56.2% of TRF volume, suggesting bearish positioning that could fuel a squeeze if the stock rallies. The double upgrade from a firm with above-average accuracy is a meaningful bullish signal, though not contrarian given the already bullish consensus.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
The consensus on TXN is bullish: 7 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 15 Hold, 2 Sell, 1 Strong Sell (40 analysts total). 55% of analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 37.5% Hold, and 7.5% Sell/Strong Sell. The consensus direction is positive, with a clear tilt toward the buy side.
Mean price target is $331.11, median $340, high $400, low $225. Current price is $284.65, implying 16.3% upside to the mean. Freedom Broker's $330 target is 0.3% below the mean and 2.9% below the median, placing it slightly below consensus but still well above the current price.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Freedom Broker | upgrade | Buy | $330.00 |
| 2026-10-22 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $360.00 |
| 2026-10-22 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Underweight | $278.00 |
| 2026-10-22 | Barclays | maintain | Equal-Weight | $280.00 |
| 2026-10-22 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $365.00 |
| 2026-10-22 | Stifel | maintain | Buy | $370.00 |
| 2026-10-22 | Rosenblatt | maintain | Buy | $360.00 |
| 2026-10-22 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $290.00 |
| 2026-10-20 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | $300.00 |
| 2026-10-19 | TD Cowen | maintain | Buy | $330.00 |
In the last 30 days, TXN has seen 1 upgrade (Freedom Broker) and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are uniformly positive: 24 revisions up vs 0 down for the current fiscal year, 21 up vs 0 down for the next quarter, and 23 up vs 0 down for the next fiscal year. Estimates are being revised higher across all timeframes, reinforcing the bullish narrative.
Firm Track Record — Freedom Broker
Freedom Broker accuracy: 61% on 127 calls | avg return: 13.8%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 10%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | 80% | 4/5 | 10.2% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 80% | 4/5 | 8.6% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 75% | 3/4 | 9.3% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 67% | 2/3 | 1.6% | top tier |
| Benchmark | 67% | 6/9 | 2.8% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 67% | 6/9 | 3.8% | top tier |
| Stifel | 67% | 4/6 | 10.9% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 67% | 2/3 | 8.6% | top tier |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 64% | 7/11 | 4.1% | top tier |
| Barclays | 60% | 3/5 | 8.6% | above average |
Freedom Broker has a 61% accuracy rate on 127 calls with an average return of 13.8%, ranking as 'above average' vs other firms covering TXN. Top-tier firms on TXN include Baird (80% on 5 calls) and JP Morgan (80% on 5 calls). The worst-performing firms include TD Cowen (50% on 4 calls, avg return -0.8%) and Susquehanna (50% on 6 calls, avg return 0.1%). Freedom Broker's accuracy is solid but not elite, and its double upgrade carries more weight than a single-notch move.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $2.28 | $2.11 — $2.40 | $5.8B | ↑21 ↓0 |
| +1q | $2.29 | $2.05 — $2.69 | $5.8B | ↑18 ↓0 |
| 0y | $8.53 | $8.28 — $8.71 | $22.0B | ↑24 ↓0 |
| +1y | $10.26 | $9.15 — $13.50 | $25.2B | ↑22 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider activity: VP Abraham Tsedeniya sold $1.85M in TXN stock on August 27, 2026 — a single-day cluster. These are C-suite sales but not routine 10b5-1 pattern; however, per academic literature, insider sales are weak predictors and this is not a strong contrarian signal. Institutional changes are mixed: ABN AMRO (+52%), Robeco (+32.4%), and Cardano (+27.7%) added, while BANQUE PICTET (-44.2%) and Ninety One UK (-43.7%) trimmed. Short interest is elevated at 56.2% of TRF volume, indicating heavy bearish positioning that could amplify upside moves. There is no congressional trading activity. The analyst upgrade aligns with positive EPS revisions and institutional buying by some funds, but diverges from insider selling and elevated short interest — creating a mixed cross-platform picture.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 26, 2026 today | 424B5 | $287.23 | awaiting T+20 | — | $298.12 (+3.79%) |
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $284.69 | awaiting T+20 | — | $298.12 (+4.72%) |
Oct 21, 2026 5d ago | 8-K | $279.50 | awaiting T+20 | — | $298.12 (+6.66%) |
Oct 21, 2026 5d ago | Press Release | $279.50 | awaiting T+20 | — | $298.12 (+6.66%) |
Oct 20, 2026 6d ago | Institutional Cluster | $284.65 | awaiting T+20 | — | $298.12 (+4.73%) |
Oct 20, 2026 7d ago | Court Ruling | $284.65 | awaiting T+20 | — | $298.12 (+4.73%) |
Oct 15, 2026 11d ago | Press Release | $276.48 | awaiting T+20 | — | $298.12 (+7.83%) |
Oct 1, 2026 25d ago | Press Release | $281.31 | awaiting T+20 | — | $298.12 (+5.98%) |
Sep 17, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $266.64 $276.48 | ▲ +3.69% | ▲ +3.49% | $298.12 (+11.81%) |
Jul 22, 2026 13w ago | Press Release | $284.99 $265.45 | ▼ −6.86% | ▼ −10.17% | $298.12 (+4.61%) |
US Market Status
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