The stock is likely to react positively to the achievement of positive Adjusted EBITDA and the strong 2026 guidance. Traders should watch for the sustainability of the software and services revenue growth (up 25% YoY) and the execution of the margin expansion story. The sequential decline in Q4 revenue, while expected, is a key risk to monitor.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
STEM reported a transformative 2025, achieving its first full-year positive Adjusted EBITDA ($6.7M) and record margins, driven by a strategic shift to software and services. Despite a 15% sequential revenue decline in Q4 due to reduced hardware sales, full-year revenue grew 8% to $156.3M. The company introduced strong 2026 guidance, forecasting 85% Adjusted EBITDA growth and 10% ARR expansion, signaling confidence in its software-centric model.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Achieved first-ever full-year positive Adjusted EBITDA of $6.7 million (vs. $22.8M loss in 2024).
- Full-year revenue grew 8% YoY to $156.3 million, with software, services, and edge hardware revenue up 25% to $141.4 million.
- Full-year GAAP gross margin improved dramatically to 38% (from -8% in 2024), and non-GAAP gross margin reached 46%.
- 2026 guidance forecasts 85% Adjusted EBITDA growth (to $10-15M) and 10% ARR growth (to $65-70M).
- Q4 revenue declined 15% to $47.2M due to a strategic de-emphasis of lower-margin battery hardware resales.
Financial Impact
Revenue of $156.3M (+8% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA of $6.7M (positive for the first time), and 2026 guidance for $10-15M Adjusted EBITDA.
Segment Breakdown
| Segment | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Software, services, and edge hardware | $141.4M | +25.0% |
| Battery hardware resale | $68.6M | -10.6% |
Risk Factors
- Q4 revenue declined 15% sequentially, which could concern investors despite being a strategic choice.
- The significant improvement in 2025 results was partly due to the absence of massive one-time impairments ($547M goodwill, $104M receivables) that occurred in 2024, making the YoY comparison easier.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001758766-26-000014 |
| Document: stem-20260304.htm | 0001758766-26-000014 |
| Document: 0001758766-26-000014-index-headers.html | 0001758766-26-000014 |
| Document: 0001758766-26-000014-index.html | 0001758766-26-000014 |
| Document: 0001758766-26-000014.txt | 0001758766-26-000014 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 23, 2026 4d ago | 8-K | $3.01 $2.84 | ▲ +5.65% | ▲ +6.21% | $2.84 (+5.65%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | 144 | $5.68 $5.89 | ▲ +3.70% | ▲ +4.02% | $2.84 (−50.00%) |
Jul 29, 2026 12w ago | 144 | $4.95 $5.30 | ▲ +7.07% | ▲ +5.39% | $2.84 (−42.63%) |
Jun 22, 2026 18w ago | 424B5 | $7.63 $7.45 | ▼ −2.36% | ▼ −2.31% | $2.84 (−62.78%) |
Jun 11, 2026 19w ago | EFFECT | $7.57 $7.31 | ▼ −3.43% | ▼ −3.98% | $2.84 (−62.48%) |
Jun 3, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $9.17 $7.70 | ▼ −16.03% | ▼ −13.43% | $2.84 (−69.03%) |
Jun 2, 2026 21w ago | S-3 | $9.04 $9.17 | ▲ +1.44% | ▲ +1.04% | $2.84 (−68.58%) |
May 6, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $8.73 $8.73 | · 0.00% | ▼ −0.83% | $2.84 (−67.47%) |
Apr 27, 2026 26w ago | DEFA14A | $11.29 $10.62 | ▼ −5.93% | ▼ −5.45% | $2.84 (−74.84%) |
Mar 4, 2026 33w ago | 8-K | $12.18 $12.11 | ▼ −0.57% | ▲ +0.74% | $2.84 (−76.68%) |
US Market Status
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