The cluster shows strong active-manager conviction (Mirae, Merit, Exchange Traded Concepts all doubled positions) but lacks insider corroboration. Given the 45-day lag, these positions may already be adjusted. Monitor upcoming Q3 earnings for confirmation of the growth thesis that likely drove these buys. The Strs Ohio trim ($23.9M) is the largest sell-side signal and may indicate a risk-off rotation by a large public pension.
Executive Summary
A mixed institutional cluster for Shopify in Q2 2026 shows 7 buyers accumulating $122.7M in net new positions, led by Mirae Asset Global Investments (new $73.4M position) and Merit Financial Group (doubled to $19.5M), while 5 sellers trimmed $36.4M, led by Strs Ohio (trimmed $23.9M). The net buying of $86.3M is notable but tempered by the absence of insider buying (confluence score 37/100, institutions-only signal) and the 45-day 13F reporting lag. Historical calibration shows strong T+20 win rate (88%) on prior SHOP reports, but the score-6 cell has only 40% observed up-move probability, suggesting modest conviction for this cluster's near-term impact.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: $86.3M
▲ Buyers (7)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirae Asset Global Investments Co. | DOUBLED | +67540.4% | $73.4M | $73.3M |
| Exchange Traded Concepts | DOUBLED | +204.3% | $29.5M | $19.4M |
| Merit Financial Group | DOUBLED | +338.6% | $19.5M | $14.9M |
| State Of Michigan Retirement System | ADD | +87.9% | $21.4M | $9.6M |
▼ Sellers (5)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strs Ohio | TRIM | -31.1% | $71.2M | -$23.9M |
| Erste Asset Management | NEAR_EXIT | -84.9% | $13.1M | -$11.1M |
Key Facts
- 7 institutional buyers added $122.7M in net new positions during Q2 2026
- Mirae Asset Global Investments established a $73.4M position (from $113K), the largest single move
- 5 institutional sellers trimmed $36.4M, led by Strs Ohio reducing $23.9M
- No open-market insider buying detected in the window (confluence score 37/100)
- Net directional flow: +$86.3M buying vs selling, dominated by active asset managers
Financial Impact
Net institutional buying of $86.3M (7 buyers adding $122.7M vs 5 sellers trimming $36.4M) during Q2 2026
Risk Factors
- 45-day 13F reporting lag means positions may have been unwound since quarter-end
- No insider buying to corroborate institutional conviction
- Strs Ohio's $23.9M trim is a meaningful counter-signal from a large institutional holder
- Score-6 historical observed up-move probability is only 40% for this filing type
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-SHOP-2026-Q2 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $144.24 $141.87 | ▼ −1.64% | ▼ −1.04% | — |
Aug 2, 2026 8w ago | Institutional Cluster | $117.01 $147.37 | ▲ +25.95% | ▲ +24.71% | — |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | 144 | $129.17 $150.29 | ▲ +16.35% | ▲ +11.33% | — |
Jul 8, 2026 12w ago | Press Release | $119.22 $144.24 | ▼ −20.99% | ▼ −17.71% | — |
Jul 2, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $119.46 $122.40 | ▲ +2.46% | ▲ +2.88% | — |
Jun 30, 2026 13w ago | 144 | $121.63 $129.17 | ▲ +6.20% | ▲ +8.38% | — |
Jun 16, 2026 15w ago | 8-K | $108.09 $125.06 | ▲ +15.70% | ▲ +14.38% | — |
Jun 16, 2026 15w ago | Press Release | $108.09 $125.06 | ▲ +15.70% | ▲ +14.38% | — |
Jun 2, 2026 17w ago | PRESS-RELEASE / 8-K | $112.94 $119.46 | ▲ +5.77% | ▲ +6.77% | — |
May 8, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $102.54 $110.42 | ▲ +7.68% | ▲ +7.99% | — |
US Market Status
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