The $56.2M buy by Cascade is a notable signal from a large insider, but the trivial percentage of market cap and poor historical calibration for bullish RSG calls suggest limited near-term upside. Monitor for any 13D filing or additional purchases that would signal a control intent, which would be a stronger catalyst. The stock's current price (~$215) is near Cascade's purchase range, providing a potential floor.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
A 10% owner (Cascade Investment, L.L.C.) purchased ~$56.2M of RSG common stock in open-market transactions over three days (Aug 10-11, 2026), representing approximately 0.09% of the $65.9B market cap. This is a large absolute dollar buy from a single influential insider, but the amount is trivial relative to the company's size. The purchase comes amid a broader 30-day insider buying cluster totaling $108.1M, though Cascade's trades dominate the cluster and are not part of a 10b5-1 plan. Historical calibration data for this filing type shows that past bullish calls on RSG have underperformed (14% win rate at T+20), and the observed probability of an up-move at this impact score is below 50%, suggesting the signal may not translate to near-term price appreciation.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Cascade Investment, L.L.C. (10% owner) purchased 261,795 shares of RSG between Aug 10-11, 2026, for a total of ~$56.2M.
- The purchase price ranged from $214.43 to $217.09 per share.
- The total buy represents ~0.09% of RSG's $65.9B market cap, which is below the 0.1% threshold for materiality.
- This is a single-insider conviction buy, not a multi-insider cluster, but Cascade is a 10% owner with potential control intent.
- RSG has a 30-day insider buying cluster of $108.1M, with Cascade's trades comprising the majority.
- Historical calibration data shows that for this filing type at this impact score, the observed probability of an up-move at T+20 is below 50%, and past bullish calls on RSG have a 14% win rate at T+20.
Financial Impact
Not specified
Risk Factors
- The purchase is small relative to market cap (0.09%), limiting its signaling power.
- Historical calibration shows past bullish calls on RSG have underperformed, with a 14% win rate at T+20.
- The broader insider cluster includes non-cash transactions (option exercises, tax withholding) that do not add conviction.
- Cascade's trades may be part of a pre-existing accumulation plan rather than a reaction to new information.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 SEC document filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INSIDER-BUY Data (Synthetic) | 0001104659-26-094887 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 14, 2026 17d ago | Insider Buy | $223.04 $213.88 | ▼ −4.11% | ▼ −6.23% | $207.51 (−6.96%) |
Sep 10, 2026 22d ago | Insider Buy | $221.08 $218.93 | ▼ −0.97% | ▼ −0.47% | $207.51 (−6.14%) |
Sep 3, 2026 29d ago | Insider Buy | $225.12 $222.74 | ▼ −1.06% | ▲ +0.09% | $207.51 (−7.82%) |
Sep 1, 2026 4w ago | Insider Buy | $223.29 $222.47 | ▼ −0.37% | ▼ −0.45% | $207.51 (−7.07%) |
Aug 28, 2026 4w ago | Insider Buy | $220.92 $221.63 | ▲ +0.32% | ▲ +0.46% | $207.51 (−6.07%) |
Aug 24, 2026 5w ago | Insider Buy | $223.08 $220.92 | ▼ −0.97% | ▼ −1.44% | $207.51 (−6.98%) |
Aug 20, 2026 6w ago | Insider Buy | $219.50 $219.27 | ▼ −0.10% | ▼ −1.22% | $207.51 (−5.46%) |
Aug 18, 2026 6w ago | Insider Buy | $216.97 $220.96 | ▲ +1.84% | ▲ +2.04% | $207.51 (−4.36%) |
Aug 14, 2026 6w ago | Insider Buy | $215.26 $223.08 | ▲ +3.63% | ▲ +4.82% | $207.51 (−3.60%) |
Aug 12, 2026 7w ago | Insider Buy | $214.26 $221.04 | ▲ +3.16% | ▲ +3.61% | $207.51 (−3.15%) |
US Market Status
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