8-K ·Filed Jun 17, 2026

PGR

PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/
BULLISH
Impact 6/10
Horizondays Processed3mo ago SEC0000080661-26-000210
8-K context-dependent: Items 5.02, 7.01
Actionable Insight ▲ Bullish

The strong May results reinforce Progressive's underwriting discipline and premium growth trajectory. Watch for continued margin expansion and policy growth in upcoming monthly releases. The orderly management transition reduces succession risk. Next catalyst: June results on July 15.

DirectionBullish
Confidencehigh
Horizondays
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
PGR ▲ +6.46% at T+60d
LONG call ✓ call won +6.46% · α vs SPY +3.31% · entry $204.42 → $217.62
Entry anchored
Jun 16, 03:59 PM ET
via exchange tick
T+1d
+0.22%
call +0.22% · α -0.56%
$204.87
settled 4mo ago
T+5d
+7.87%
call +7.87% · α +8.91%
$220.50
settled 3mo ago
T+20d
+0.68%
call +0.68% · α -0.64%
$205.80
settled 3mo ago
T+60d
+6.46%
call +6.46% · α +3.31%
$217.62
settled 18d ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Progressive reported very strong May 2026 monthly results: net premiums earned +10% YoY, net income +36% to $1.445B, diluted EPS $2.47 (up 36%), and combined ratio improved 4.8 points to 82.1. Policies in force grew 8% to 39.97M. Separately, Personal Lines President Pat Callahan announced retirement effective January 2027 with an orderly succession plan. The monthly results significantly beat prior-year comparisons and signal continued underwriting momentum.

Key Facts

  • Net income for May 2026 was $1.445B, up 36% from $1.065B in May 2025
  • Diluted EPS was $2.47, up 36% from $1.81
  • Combined ratio improved to 82.1 from 86.9, a 4.8-point improvement
  • Net premiums earned grew 10% to $7.361B
  • Policies in force increased 8% to 39.97 million
  • Company repurchased 1,269,184 common shares in May at average cost of $198.42
  • Personal Lines President Pat Callahan to retire in January 2027; Lori Niederst promoted to Chief Personal Lines Officer

Financial Impact

Net income increased $380M (36%) YoY for the month; combined ratio improved 480 bps

net incomeepscombined ratiopremiums earnedpolicies in force

Risk Factors

  • Catastrophe losses could pressure combined ratio in future months
  • Competitive pricing environment may slow premium growth
  • Reserve development could reverse if prior-year claims emerge unfavorably

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
Analyst Consensus
42% bullish (31 analysts)

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0000080661-26-000210
Document: pgr-20260611.htm0000080661-26-000210
Document: pgr202605ex992newsrelease.htm0000080661-26-000210
Document: 0000080661-26-000210-index-headers.html0000080661-26-000210
Document: 0000080661-26-000210-index.html0000080661-26-000210
Document: 0000080661-26-000210.txt0000080661-26-000210
25 reports for PGR
Performance horizon
88% Hit rate 7 of 8 directional calls best @ T+60▲ +14.05%Apr 15, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for PGR — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 24, 2026
5w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$223.92 $206.94▼ −7.58%▼ −8.90%$210.96 (−5.79%)
Aug 19, 2026
6w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$217.27 $216.29▼ −0.45%▲ +1.50%$210.96 (−2.90%)
Jul 29, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$219.99 $222.51▲ +1.15%▼ −3.87%$210.96 (−4.10%)
Jul 28, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$219.52 $222.09▲ +1.17%▼ −2.21%$210.96 (−3.90%)
Jul 28, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$219.52 $222.09▼ −1.17%▲ +2.21%$210.96 (+3.90%)
Jul 15, 2026
11w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$205.22 $207.35▲ +1.04%▼ −1.31%$210.96 (+2.80%)
Jul 15, 2026
11w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$205.22 $207.35▼ −1.04%▲ +1.31%$210.96 (−2.80%)
Jul 2, 2026
13w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$232.22 $213.28▼ −8.16%▼ −7.74%$210.96 (−9.16%)
Jul 2, 2026
13w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$232.22 $213.28▼ −8.16%▼ −7.74%$210.96 (−9.16%)
Jun 25, 2026
14w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$215.54 $207.07▼ −3.93%▼ −4.46%$210.96 (−2.12%)
Showing 10 of 25

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