8-K ·Filed Jul 15, 2026

PGR

PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/
BULLISH
Impact 7/10
Horizondays Processed2mo ago SEC0000080661-26-000262
8-K Item 2.02: Earnings release
Actionable Insight ▲ Bullish

The strong EPS beat and continued premium growth signal robust underwriting and pricing power. Monitor the August 4 conference call for commentary on loss trends and pricing outlook. The combined ratio uptick warrants attention but is manageable given the beat magnitude.

DirectionBullish
Confidencehigh
Horizondays
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
PGR ▲ +1.04% at T+20d
LONG call ✓ call won +1.04% · α vs SPY -1.31% · entry $205.22 → $207.35
Next anchor: T+60d in 6d
Latest observation: T+54 -10.06% FF3 residual α
Entry anchored
Jul 15, 09:50 AM ET
via exchange tick
T+1d
+0.28%
call +0.28% · α +0.82%
$205.80
settled 3mo ago
T+5d
-0.33%
call -0.33% · α +0.65%
$204.54
settled 2mo ago
T+20d
+1.04%
call +1.04% · α -1.31%
$207.35
settled 7w ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
—
in 6d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Progressive reported Q2 2026 EPS of $5.67, beating the $4.58 consensus by 23.8%, driven by 6% growth in net premiums earned to $21.57B. The combined ratio worsened to 87.3% from 86.2% a year ago, but strong premium growth and favorable prior-year reserve development supported earnings. Policies in force grew 7% year-over-year.

Key Financial Metrics

EPS
$5.67
est $4.58 · +23.8%
Revenue
$21.6B
+6.0% YoY
Rating
strong beat

Key Facts

  • Q2 2026 diluted EPS $5.67 vs consensus $4.58 (beat 23.8%)
  • Net premiums earned $21.57B, up 6% YoY from $20.31B
  • Combined ratio 87.3% vs 86.2% in Q2 2025 (deteriorated 1.1 pts)
  • Net income $3.31B, up 4% from $3.18B
  • Total policies in force 40.1M, up 7% YoY
  • Book value per share $59.05, up from $54.82 at March 31, 2026

Financial Impact

EPS beat consensus by $1.09 (23.8%), representing a significant positive surprise

epsnet premiums earnedcombined ratio

Risk Factors

  • Combined ratio deterioration of 1.1 points YoY could signal rising loss costs
  • Monthly net income for June fell 31% YoY, though quarterly trends were solid
  • Net realized losses on securities in June quarter vs gains a year ago

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
Analyst Consensus
42% bullish (31 analysts)

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0000080661-26-000262
Document: pgr-20260715.htm0000080661-26-000262
Document: 0000080661-26-000262-index-headers.html0000080661-26-000262
Document: 0000080661-26-000262-index.html0000080661-26-000262
Document: 0000080661-26-000262.txt0000080661-26-000262
8-K Data (Synthetic)0000080661-26-000262
25 reports for PGR
Performance horizon
88% Hit rate 7 of 8 directional calls best @ T+60▲ +14.05%Apr 15, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for PGR — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 24, 2026
5w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$223.92 $206.94▼ −7.58%▼ −8.90%$210.31 (−6.08%)
Aug 19, 2026
6w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$217.27 $216.29▼ −0.45%▲ +1.50%$210.31 (−3.20%)
Jul 29, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$219.99 $222.51▲ +1.15%▼ −3.87%$210.31 (−4.40%)
Jul 28, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$219.52 $222.09▲ +1.17%▼ −2.21%$210.31 (−4.20%)
Jul 28, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$219.52 $222.09▼ −1.17%▲ +2.21%$210.31 (+4.20%)
Jul 15, 2026
11w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$205.22 $207.35▲ +1.04%▼ −1.31%$210.31 (+2.48%)
Jul 15, 2026
11w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$205.22 $207.35▼ −1.04%▲ +1.31%$210.31 (−2.48%)
Jul 2, 2026
13w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$232.22 $213.28▼ −8.16%▼ −7.74%$210.31 (−9.44%)
Jul 2, 2026
13w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$232.22 $213.28▼ −8.16%▼ −7.74%$210.31 (−9.44%)
Jun 25, 2026
14w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$215.54 $207.07▼ −3.93%▼ −4.46%$210.31 (−2.43%)
Showing 10 of 25

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (65h 1m)

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