Revenue and EPS beat consensus estimates, but the comparison is distorted by the prior-year APA close-out. The reiteration of FY2026 guidance provides no new catalyst. Watch for Sanofi milestone payments (up to $350M for flu-COVID combo, $75M tech transfer milestone) and further Matrix-M partnership announcements as the primary upside drivers. The $795M cash position and $330M credit facility provide runway through the transition.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Novavax reported Q1 2026 total revenue of $140M, down 79% YoY from $667M, which included $603M in non-cash APA close-out sales in Q1 2025. Net loss was $9M vs net income of $519M in the prior year. The company reiterated its FY2026 adjusted total revenue framework of $230M-$270M and expense guidance, with no change to outlook. The headline revenue decline is entirely driven by the prior-year APA close-out, not underlying business deterioration.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 total revenue $140M, down 79% YoY from $667M (Q1 2025 included $603M non-cash APA close-out)
- Q1 2026 net loss $9M vs net income $519M in Q1 2025
- GAAP diluted EPS $(0.06) vs $2.93 in Q1 2025
- Licensing, royalties and other revenue $97M, up 116% YoY, including $30M Pfizer upfront
- Cash and marketable securities $795M at March 31, 2026, up from $751M at Dec 31, 2025
- Reiterated FY2026 adjusted total revenue guidance of $230M-$270M
- Reiterated FY2026 Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expense guidance of $310M-$340M
- Signed new MTAs in April 2026 with a top 10 pharma company for oncology and infectious disease targets
- Sanofi announced positive Phase 4 COMPARE study results for Nuvaxovid vs Moderna's mNEXSPIKE
Financial Impact
Q1 2026 revenue $140M vs consensus $81M (beat), but GAAP EPS $(0.06) vs consensus $(0.25) (beat). The 79% YoY revenue decline is non-comparable due to $603M APA close-out in Q1 2025.
Risk Factors
- Dependence on Sanofi for commercial execution and revenue forecasts — no guidance on Sanofi-related revenue components
- COVID-19 vaccine demand remains seasonal and unpredictable
- Nuvaxovid product sales declining 98% YoY as commercial lead transitions to Sanofi
- Stockholders' deficit of $145M at March 31, 2026, though improving from $128M at year-end 2025
- Convertible notes payable increased to $291M from $244M at year-end 2025
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-030924 |
| Document: nvax-20260506.htm | 0001628280-26-030924 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-030924-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-030924 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-030924-index.html | 0001628280-26-030924 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-030924.txt | 0001628280-26-030924 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001628280-26-030924 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 6, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $7.74 $10.34 | ▲ +33.59% | ▲ +32.99% | $10.36 (+33.91%) |
May 6, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $9.36 $10.20 | ▲ +8.97% | ▲ +6.19% | $10.36 (+10.74%) |
Apr 27, 2026 22w ago | DEFA14A | $8.07 $10.46 | ▲ +29.62% | ▲ +24.66% | $10.36 (+28.44%) |
Feb 26, 2026 31w ago | 8-K | $11.19 $8.95 | ▼ −20.02% | ▼ −13.62% | $10.36 (−7.37%) |
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