This upgrade lacks conviction without a price target and is partially offset by heavy insider selling. Traders should treat this as a neutral signal and wait for a price target or additional catalysts before acting.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Wolfe Research double-upgraded MRNA from Underperform to Peer Perform on August 25, 2026, a notable shift from a bearish stance to a neutral-equivalent rating. The firm's track record is average at 52% accuracy on 451 calls with a 4.4% average return. Consensus on MRNA is heavily tilted toward the sidelines: 30% Buy (9 of 30), 60% Hold (18), and 10% Sell (3). The mean price target of $95.67 implies 31% downside from the current $138.89, while the median of $83 suggests deeper downside. Momentum is mixed — 2 upgrades in 30 days (including this one) and 0 downgrades, but EPS revisions for the current fiscal year show 13 upward revisions vs 5 downward, a net positive. Insider selling is significant: CEO Stephane Bancel sold $28.7M worth on August 5, and the CFO sold $3.6M in July, creating a bearish divergence with the upgrade. Short interest is elevated at 62.3% of float, indicating heavy bearish positioning. The bottom line: this is a low-conviction upgrade from an average-accuracy firm, partially offset by improving EPS revisions, but heavy insider selling and a bearish consensus cap the upside.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is 30% Buy (2 Strong Buy, 7 Buy), 60% Hold (18 Hold), and 10% Sell (2 Sell, 1 Strong Sell) from 30 analysts. The consensus is heavily tilted toward the sidelines, with a majority neutral stance and a minority bearish.
Current price is $138.89. Mean target is $95.67 (31% downside), median $83 (40% downside), high $170 (22% upside), low $25 (82% downside). Wolfe Research did not provide a price target, so its view sits outside the consensus range, but the Peer Perform grade aligns with the consensus's neutral lean.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Wolfe Research | upgrade | Peer Perform | — |
| 2026-08-24 | Barclays | maintain | Equal-Weight | $125.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | JP Morgan | maintain | Underweight | $77.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Goldman Sachs | maintain | Neutral | $120.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $150.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal-Weight | $89.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | William Blair | upgrade | Outperform | — |
| 2026-08-03 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $60.00 |
| 2026-07-21 | Goldman Sachs | maintain | Neutral | — |
| 2026-07-08 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal-Weight | $39.00 |
In the last 30 days, there have been 2 upgrades (Wolfe Research and William Blair) and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions for the current fiscal year show 13 upward revisions vs 5 downward in the last 30 days, with the average EPS estimate improving from -$8.66 to -$8.58. For the next quarter, 11 upward revisions vs 3 downward, with EPS improving from -$2.06 to -$1.87. Estimates are being revised higher overall.
Firm Track Record — Wolfe Research
Wolfe Research accuracy: 52% on 451 calls | avg return: 4.4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 13 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | 100% | 2/2 | 42.6% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 75% | 3/4 | 26.9% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 67% | 2/3 | 10% | top tier |
| Leerink Partners | 50% | 1/2 | 48.9% | below average |
| Citigroup | 50% | 1/2 | 31.7% | below average |
| JP Morgan | 50% | 3/6 | -7.9% | below average |
| RBC Capital | 38% | 3/8 | -7.9% | below average |
| Needham | 38% | 3/8 | -14.3% | below average |
| Barclays | 33% | 2/6 | -7.5% | below average |
| Piper Sandler | 25% | 1/4 | 4.5% | below average |
Wolfe Research has a 52% accuracy rate on 451 calls with a 4.4% average return, ranking as average. Among firms covering MRNA, Jefferies (100% on 2 calls, 42.6% avg return) and Morgan Stanley (75% on 4 calls, 26.9% avg return) are top-tier. Oppenheimer (0% on 2 calls, -41.8% avg return) and Evercore ISI (0% on 4 calls, -29.1% avg return) are the worst performers.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $-1.35 | $-3.32 — $-0.80 | $872.9M | ↑7 ↓0 |
| +1q | $-1.87 | $-2.31 — $-1.20 | $689.9M | ↑11 ↓0 |
| 0y | $-8.58 | $-10.55 — $-8.00 | $2.1B | ↑7 ↓0 |
| +1y | $-4.87 | $-7.11 — $-2.73 | $2.5B | ↑8 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades show heavy selling: CEO Stephane Bancel sold $28.7M on August 5, and CFO Stephen Hoge sold $3.6M on July 15 — a bearish signal that diverges from the upgrade. No congressional trades reported. Institutional activity is mixed: Brevan Howard doubled its position (+102.1%, $12.7M), while INTECH nearly exited (-76.6%, $319K). Short interest is elevated at 62.3% of float, indicating heavy bearish positioning that could fuel a squeeze if positive catalysts emerge. The upgrade is a contrarian signal against insider selling and high short interest.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 30, 2026 2d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Sep 3, 2026 29d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $148.87 $143.97 | ▲ +3.29% | ▲ +2.14% | $187.38 (−25.87%) |
Aug 31, 2026 4w ago | Court Ruling | $140.19 $140.33 | ▼ −0.10% | ▼ −0.24% | $187.38 (−33.66%) |
Aug 25, 2026 5w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $158.83 $154.27 | ▼ −2.87% | ▼ −2.33% | $187.38 (+17.98%) |
Aug 19, 2026 6w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $174.38 $149.66 | ▼ −14.18% | ▼ −13.79% | $187.38 (+7.45%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | 144 | $56.26 $63.67 | ▼ −13.18% | ▼ −12.83% | $187.38 (−233.09%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $54.82 $59.17 | ▲ +7.94% | ▲ +4.42% | $187.38 (+241.81%) |
Jul 10, 2026 11w ago | 3 | $67.01 $61.82 | ▼ −7.75% | ▼ −6.96% | $187.38 (+179.63%) |
Jul 8, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $73.80 $67.44 | ▼ −8.62% | ▼ −9.48% | $187.38 (+153.90%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | 144 | $63.96 $59.75 | ▼ −6.58% | ▼ −4.92% | $187.38 (+192.96%) |
US Market Status
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