The double downgrade aligns with heavy insider selling and institutional trimming — a rare convergence of bearish signals. Traders should monitor the $112.56 mean target as a near-term floor; any bounce above $170 is unlikely given the consensus high target and bearish momentum.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Rothschild & Co double downgraded Moderna from Neutral to Sell on Sep 3, 2026, slashing the price target from $40 to $81 (a 102.5% increase but representing a 46.3% downside from the current price of $150.81). The firm carries a 57% accuracy rate on 40 calls and an average return of 3.1%, placing it below the top-tier firms covering MRNA. The consensus stands at a mix of 11 Buy, 17 Hold, 2 Sell, with a mean target of $112.56 implying a 25.4% downside. Analyst activity over the past 30 days shows 3 upgrades vs 1 downgrade, but EPS revisions for FY0 are net positive (13 up, 5 down), suggesting some improving fundamental expectations. Insiders have been selling heavily, notably CEO Stephane Bancel sold $28.74M in August 2026, while institutional moves include Citadel trimming by 39.9% and JPMorgan trimming 36.4%, though Norges Bank opened a $211.9M new position. Short interest stands at 62.7% of float, indicating heavy bearish positioning. The Rothschild call is contrarian — a rare double downgrade from a below-top-tier firm — but the massive insider sales and institutional trimming lend support to the bearish stance.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
The consensus is mixed: 11 Buy (4 Strong Buy, 7 Buy), 17 Hold, 2 Sell — out of 30 analysts. The overall directional stance is Hold-tilted with 36.7% Buy, 56.7% Hold, 6.7% Sell. Rothschild's Sell rating places it more bearish than consensus.
The mean price target is $112.56 (-25.4% vs $150.81), median $125.00 (-17.1%), high $170.00 (+12.7%), low $40.00 (-73.5%). Rothschild's $81 target is below the median and mean, aligning more with the bearish side of the range — above the low but well below consensus.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Rothschild & Co | downgrade | Sell | $81.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | Argus Research | upgrade | Buy | — |
| 2026-08-25 | Wolfe Research | upgrade | Peer Perform | — |
| 2026-08-24 | Barclays | maintain | Equal-Weight | $125.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | JP Morgan | maintain | Underweight | $77.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Goldman Sachs | maintain | Neutral | $120.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $150.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal-Weight | $89.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | William Blair | upgrade | Outperform | — |
| 2026-08-03 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $60.00 |
Over the past 30 days, MRNA has seen 3 upgrades (Argus Research, Wolfe Research, William Blair) and 1 downgrade (Rothschild). EPS revisions for the current fiscal year (FY0) are net positive: 13 upward revisions vs 5 downward in the last 30 days, and the consensus EPS estimate improved from -$8.70 to -$8.54. For the next quarter (+1q), 11 up vs 3 down in 30 days.
Firm Track Record — Rothschild & Co
Rothschild & Co accuracy: 57% on 40 calls | avg return: 3.1%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 13 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | 100% | 2/2 | 42.6% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 75% | 3/4 | 26.9% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 67% | 2/3 | 10% | top tier |
| Leerink Partners | 50% | 1/2 | 48.9% | below average |
| Citigroup | 50% | 1/2 | 31.7% | below average |
| JP Morgan | 50% | 3/6 | -7.9% | below average |
| RBC Capital | 38% | 3/8 | -7.9% | below average |
| Needham | 38% | 3/8 | -14.3% | below average |
| Barclays | 33% | 2/6 | -7.5% | below average |
| Piper Sandler | 25% | 1/4 | 4.5% | below average |
Rothschild & Co has a 57% accuracy rate on 40 calls and an average return of 3.1%, ranking it as below-average relative to the top firms (Jefferies 100% on 2 calls, Morgan Stanley 75% on 4, BofA 67% on 3). The best performing is Jefferies (100% accuracy, 42.6% avg return); the worst is Oppenheimer (0% on 2, -41.8% avg return).
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $-1.35 | $-3.32 — $-0.80 | $876.6M | ↑7 ↓0 |
| +1q | $-1.86 | $-2.31 — $-1.20 | $685.0M | ↑11 ↓0 |
| 0y | $-8.54 | $-10.55 — $-8.00 | $2.1B | ↑7 ↓0 |
| +1y | $-4.91 | $-7.11 — $-2.73 | $2.4B | ↑8 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades are bearish: CEO Stephane Bancel sold $28.74M on Aug 5, 2026, and EVP Stephen Hoge sold $3.61M on Jul 15. No insider buys are present. Institutional activity shows divergence: Citadel trimmed 39.9% and JPMorgan trimmed 36.4%, while Norges Bank opened a $211.9M new position and Bank of Montreal added 30.9%. The insider selling aligns with the bearish downgrade, slightly strengthening its signal. No congressional trades were recorded. Short interest at 62.7% of float is extremely high, indicating heavy bearish bets.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 30, 2026 2d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Sep 3, 2026 29d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $148.87 $143.97 | ▲ +3.29% | ▲ +2.14% | $187.38 (−25.87%) |
Aug 31, 2026 4w ago | Court Ruling | $140.19 $140.33 | ▼ −0.10% | ▼ −0.24% | $187.38 (−33.66%) |
Aug 25, 2026 5w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $158.83 $154.27 | ▼ −2.87% | ▼ −2.33% | $187.38 (+17.98%) |
Aug 19, 2026 6w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $174.38 $149.66 | ▼ −14.18% | ▼ −13.79% | $187.38 (+7.45%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | 144 | $56.26 $63.67 | ▼ −13.18% | ▼ −12.83% | $187.38 (−233.09%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $54.82 $59.17 | ▲ +7.94% | ▲ +4.42% | $187.38 (+241.81%) |
Jul 10, 2026 11w ago | 3 | $67.01 $61.82 | ▼ −7.75% | ▼ −6.96% | $187.38 (+179.63%) |
Jul 8, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $73.80 $67.44 | ▼ −8.62% | ▼ −9.48% | $187.38 (+153.90%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | 144 | $63.96 $59.75 | ▼ −6.58% | ▼ −4.92% | $187.38 (+192.96%) |
US Market Status
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