The norovirus Phase 3 failure is a material pipeline setback that will likely dominate the narrative and pressure the stock near-term, despite the modest financial beat. Watch for the August 5 PDUFA decision on mFLUSIVA as a potential offsetting catalyst. The improved cash guidance provides some downside protection, but the pipeline read-through is negative.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Moderna reported Q2 2026 revenue of $145M (vs $103.9M consensus) and GAAP EPS of -$1.97 (vs -$2.06 consensus), a modest beat on both lines. The company reiterated its plan for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 and improved its operating expense and year-end cash guidance. However, the norovirus vaccine candidate mRNA-1403 failed a Phase 3 interim analysis, a significant pipeline setback that will likely overshadow the financial beat and weigh on sentiment.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 revenue of $145M, up 2% YoY from $142M, beating consensus of $103.9M.
- GAAP EPS of -$1.97, beating consensus of -$2.06 by 4.4%.
- Norovirus vaccine candidate mRNA-1403 failed Phase 3 interim analysis; trial ongoing with additional cohort enrollment.
- 2026 R&D expense guidance lowered to ~$2.9B from ~$3.0B; year-end cash guidance improved to $4.7-5.2B.
- mFLUSIVA (seasonal flu vaccine) has a PDUFA date of August 5, 2026, with potential to become the fifth approved product.
- Cash, cash equivalents and investments at $6.9B as of June 30, 2026, down from $7.5B at March 31, 2026.
Financial Impact
Revenue beat of ~$41M vs consensus; EPS beat of $0.09 vs consensus. Norovirus pipeline failure removes a key growth catalyst.
Risk Factors
- Norovirus vaccine failure removes a key pipeline catalyst and raises questions about the broader vaccine platform's success rate.
- Revenue growth remains heavily dependent on COVID vaccine sales, which are declining year-over-year.
- The company has a history of high cash burn; the improved guidance still implies significant cash consumption.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001682852-26-000147 |
| Document: mrna-20260731.htm | 0001682852-26-000147 |
| Document: 0001682852-26-000147-index-headers.html | 0001682852-26-000147 |
| Document: 0001682852-26-000147-index.html | 0001682852-26-000147 |
| Document: 0001682852-26-000147.txt | 0001682852-26-000147 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001682852-26-000147 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 30, 2026 2d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
Sep 3, 2026 29d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $148.87 $190.01 | ▼ −27.63% | ▼ −28.82% | $190.01 (−27.63%) |
Aug 31, 2026 4w ago | Court Ruling | $140.19 $203.46 | ▼ −45.13% | ▼ −45.50% | $190.01 (−35.54%) |
Aug 25, 2026 5w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $158.83 $182.11 | ▲ +14.66% | ▲ +13.68% | $190.01 (+19.63%) |
Aug 19, 2026 6w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $174.38 $158.07 | ▼ −9.35% | ▼ −7.40% | $190.01 (+8.96%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | 144 | $56.26 $150.81 | ▼ −168.08% | ▼ −168.68% | $190.01 (−237.77%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $54.82 $137.99 | ▲ +151.71% | ▲ +148.73% | $190.01 (+246.61%) |
Jul 10, 2026 12w ago | 3 | $67.01 $59.81 | ▼ −10.74% | ▼ −13.93% | $190.01 (+183.55%) |
Jul 8, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $73.80 $56.26 | ▼ −23.77% | ▼ −27.05% | $190.01 (+157.47%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | 144 | $63.96 $63.15 | ▼ −1.27% | ▼ −1.80% | $190.01 (+197.08%) |
US Market Status
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