The massive earnings beat driven by refining margin expansion across all regions sets a strong near-term catalyst. Continued capital return ($2.8B in Q2), $6.1B remaining authorization, and growing MPLX distributions support the bull case. Monitor Q3 operational guidance (2.82M bpd crude throughput, $290M turnaround costs) and crack spread trends.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
MPC reported Q2 2026 net income of $5.1B ($17.73 EPS) vs consensus $13.95, a 27.1% beat, on revenue of $52.0B vs $41.4B consensus (+25.5%). Adjusted EBITDA surged to $8.5B from $3.3B YoY, driven by soaring refining margins (RM margin $36.33/bbl vs $17.58/bbl) across all regions. The company returned $2.8B to shareholders in the quarter and ended with $7.8B cash.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q2 GAAP diluted EPS $17.73 vs consensus $13.95 (beat 27.1%)
- Revenue $51.99B vs consensus $41.44B (beat 25.5%), +53.8% YoY
- Refining & Marketing segment adjusted EBITDA $6.655B vs $1.890B YoY (+252%)
- RM margin $36.33/barrel vs $17.58/barrel YoY; crude utilization 94%
- Midstream segment EBITDA $1.78B vs $1.64B YoY
- Renewable Diesel segment EBITDA $258M vs $(19)M YoY (swung to profit)
- Capital returned $2.8B; $6.1B remaining under share repurchase authorizations
- Cash and equivalents $7.77B; no borrowings on $5B revolver
- El Paso FCC upgrade and Robinson jet project completed in Q2
- MPLX growth capex outlook increased by $500M to $2.9B
Financial Impact
EPS beat of $17.73 vs $13.95 consensus (+27.1%), revenue beat of $51.99B vs $41.44B (+25.5%), adjusted EBITDA $8.5B vs $3.3B YoY (+157%)
Risk Factors
- Refining margins highly cyclical; potential normalization from elevated levels
- Geopolitical risks (Middle East, tariffs) could impact crude supply or demand
- Planned turnaround costs of $290M in Q3 could pressure unit costs
- Heavy capital spending at MPLX ($2.9B) may strain free cash flow if midstream returns disappoint
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001510295-26-000060 |
| Document: mpc-20260804.htm | 0001510295-26-000060 |
| Document: 0001510295-26-000060-index-headers.html | 0001510295-26-000060 |
| Document: 0001510295-26-000060-index.html | 0001510295-26-000060 |
| Document: 0001510295-26-000060.txt | 0001510295-26-000060 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001510295-26-000060 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 1, 2026 4w ago | Insider Cluster | $383.00 $395.42 | ▲ +3.24% | ▲ +3.13% | $420.15 (+9.70%) |
Aug 19, 2026 6w ago | Insider Cluster | $360.75 $421.96 | ▲ +16.97% | ▲ +18.92% | $420.15 (+16.47%) |
Aug 17, 2026 6w ago | Insider Cluster | $358.18 $410.84 | ▲ +14.70% | ▲ +16.68% | $420.15 (+17.30%) |
Aug 4, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $312.61 $383.00 | ▲ +22.52% | ▲ +23.75% | $420.15 (+34.40%) |
Jun 29, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $259.22 $309.24 | ▲ +19.30% | ▲ +19.58% | $420.15 (+62.08%) |
May 6, 2026 21w ago | S-3ASR | $242.17 $267.21 | ▲ +10.34% | ▲ +7.21% | $420.15 (+73.50%) |
May 5, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $259.78 $263.06 | ▲ +1.26% | ▼ −3.69% | $420.15 (+61.73%) |
Apr 21, 2026 23w ago | Court Ruling | $220.35 $263.02 | ▲ +19.36% | ▲ +15.15% | $420.15 (+90.67%) |
Apr 21, 2026 23w ago | Court Ruling | $220.35 $263.02 | ▲ +19.36% | ▲ +15.15% | $420.15 (+90.67%) |
Apr 13, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $223.72 $252.48 | ▲ +12.86% | ▲ +6.56% | $420.15 (+87.80%) |
US Market Status
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