Expect significant negative price reaction on the massive EPS miss and withdrawn phosphate guidance. Monitor raw material (sulfur) prices and further production curtailment announcements. The withdrawal of phosphate guidance signals high near-term uncertainty; avoid the stock until input cost normalization becomes visible.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Mosaic reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.05, missing consensus of $0.22 by 77%, despite revenue of $2.998B beating estimates of $2.90B. The company withdrew its phosphate production guidance for 2026 due to record sulfur prices and initiated production curtailments, while also recording $442M in charges from idling Brazilian assets. Adjusted EBITDA fell 24% YoY to $416M.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- GAAP diluted EPS of $(0.81) vs $0.75 YoY; adjusted EPS of $0.05 vs consensus $0.22
- Revenue $2,998M (+14% YoY) vs consensus $2,900M
- Operating loss of $373M vs operating income of $339M in Q1 2025
- Adjusted EBITDA $416M vs $544M YoY
- Withdrew phosphate production guidance for 2026; initiated partial curtailments at Louisiana and Bartow
- Recorded $442M in charges from idling Araxa and Patrocinio in Brazil
- Sulfur costs reached record levels, averaging $379/long ton in COGS
- Potash segment performed well with operating earnings up 13% YoY to $177M
- Capital expenditure guidance lowered to $1.25B from prior level
- Net debt increased to $5.241B from $4.777B at Q4 2025
Financial Impact
Adjusted EPS missed by $0.17 (77%); revenue beat by $98M (3.4%); adjusted EBITDA declined $128M (23.5%) YoY
Risk Factors
- Continued escalation of sulfur and ammonia costs compressing margins
- Further asset impairments or write-downs in Brazil
- Potential dividend cut or reduction in share repurchases due to cash flow constraints
- Geopolitical disruptions impacting global fertilizer trade
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001285785-26-000063 |
| Document: pressreleaseq12026-ex991.htm | 0001285785-26-000063 |
| Document: mos-20260511.htm | 0001285785-26-000063 |
| Document: 0001285785-26-000063-index-headers.html | 0001285785-26-000063 |
| Document: 0001285785-26-000063-index.html | 0001285785-26-000063 |
| Document: 0001285785-26-000063.txt | 0001285785-26-000063 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001285785-26-000063 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 17, 2026 6w ago | 8-K | $21.23 $25.46 | ▲ +19.92% | ▲ +21.90% | $21.08 (−0.71%) |
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $23.47 $26.53 | ▲ +13.04% | ▲ +13.95% | $21.08 (−10.18%) |
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | 424B5 | $23.47 $26.53 | ▲ +13.04% | ▲ +13.95% | $21.08 (−10.18%) |
Jun 12, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $22.69 $21.51 | ▼ −5.20% | ▼ −6.98% | $21.08 (−7.10%) |
May 11, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $21.79 $21.28 | ▲ +2.34% | ▲ +2.04% | $21.08 (+3.26%) |
Apr 8, 2026 25w ago | 8-K | $26.62 $23.26 | ▲ +12.62% | ▲ +21.17% | $21.08 (+20.81%) |
Feb 24, 2026 31w ago | 8-K | $26.75 $26.19 | ▲ +2.11% | ▼ −3.13% | $21.08 (+21.21%) |
US Market Status
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