Seaport's Neutral initiation adds no new conviction to MCD. Traders should note the negative EPS revision trend and congressional sells as headwinds against the bullish consensus. Wait for a higher-conviction signal from a top-tier firm before acting.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Seaport Global initiated coverage on McDonald's Corp (MCD) at Neutral with no price target, a cautious start that aligns with the stock's current trading well below consensus. MCD trades at $252.78, a 19.2% discount to the mean target of $312.84, reflecting broad bullish consensus — 80.5% of analysts rate Buy/Strong Buy, 19.5% Hold, and none Sell. The firm's 51% accuracy on 239 calls and 1.5% average return place it below top-tier peers like Guggenheim (100% on 6 calls) and Jefferies (100% on 2 calls). Recent analyst activity shows 1 upgrade and 0 downgrades in the past 30 days, but EPS revisions are tilting negative — 15 downward revisions vs 9 upward for the current quarter. Insider trades are absent, while congressional sells (Booker, Khanna, McCormick) and institutional moves show mixed signals: Citadel doubled its position but Maverick Capital exited. The initiation is a neutral, low-conviction signal from a below-average-accuracy firm, offering little actionable edge.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily bullish: 8 Strong Buy, 17 Buy, 15 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — 80.5% Buy/Strong Buy, 19.5% Hold, 0.8% Sell. 31 analysts cover MCD. Direction is strongly positive, but Seaport's Neutral stance is below consensus.
Mean PT $312.84, median $305, high $407, low $250. Current price $252.78 implies 23.8% upside to mean. Seaport's lack of a PT places it below the low end of the range, signaling caution relative to peers.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Seaport Global | initiate | Neutral | — |
| 2026-09-15 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $290.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | Deutsche Bank | maintain | Buy | $300.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal-Weight | $308.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | TD Cowen | maintain | Hold | — |
| 2026-08-26 | Argus Research | maintain | Buy | $310.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | Guggenheim | maintain | Neutral | $290.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $345.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $295.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | Keybanc | maintain | Overweight | — |
30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade, 0 downgrades. EPS revisions show a negative tilt: current quarter has 15 downward vs 9 upward revisions; next quarter 20 down vs 6 up; next year 25 down vs 3 up. Estimates are being revised lower, conflicting with the bullish consensus.
Firm Track Record — Seaport Global
Seaport Global accuracy: 51% on 239 calls | avg return: 1.5%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guggenheim | 100% | 6/6 | 6.9% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 100% | 2/2 | 8.8% | top tier |
| Deutsche Bank | 100% | 2/2 | 16.2% | top tier |
| TD Securities | 100% | 3/3 | 2.1% | top tier |
| Loop Capital | 80% | 4/5 | 5.4% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 78% | 7/9 | 3.3% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 71% | 5/7 | 6% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 71% | 5/7 | 1.5% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 69% | 9/13 | 3.4% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 67% | 2/3 | 0.6% | top tier |
Seaport Global has 51% accuracy on 239 calls with 1.5% avg return — below average vs top-tier firms. Top performers: Guggenheim (100% on 6 calls, 6.9% return), Jefferies (100% on 2, 8.8%), Deutsche Bank (100% on 2, 16.2%). Worst: Baird (43% on 7, 0% return), Morgan Stanley (44% on 9, 1.7%). Seaport's call is less credible than consensus.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $3.40 | $3.25 — $3.54 | $7.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $3.30 | $3.06 — $3.49 | $7.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $12.93 | $12.53 — $13.23 | $28.2B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $13.98 | $13.55 — $15.00 | $29.7B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
No insider trades recorded. Congressional sells: Cory Booker ($15k-$50k), Ro Khanna ($15k-$50k), Rich McCormick ($1k-$15k) — all sells, a bearish signal. Institutional moves mixed: Citadel doubled (+196%), Pinebridge doubled (+161%), Capital Research added 30%, but Maverick Capital exited. Short interest at 59.4% of off-exchange volume is elevated. The analyst Neutral call diverges from bullish consensus but aligns with negative EPS revisions and congressional sells.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 16, 2026 16d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $248.56 $238.32 | ▼ −4.12% | ▼ −6.68% | $231.83 (−6.73%) |
Aug 4, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $268.34 $274.15 | ▲ +2.17% | ▲ +2.27% | $231.83 (−13.61%) |
Jun 1, 2026 17w ago | Insider Cluster | $276.09 $279.84 | ▲ +1.36% | ▲ +4.11% | $231.83 (−16.03%) |
Apr 23, 2026 23w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $302.45 $290.08 | ▼ −4.09% | ▼ −5.57% | $231.83 (−23.35%) |
Apr 7, 2026 25w ago | DEFA14A | $306.99 $306.26 | ▼ −0.24% | ▼ −3.75% | $231.83 (−24.48%) |
Mar 18, 2026 28w ago | Insider Cluster | $315.71 $311.53 | ▼ −1.32% | ▼ −0.61% | $231.83 (−26.57%) |
Mar 17, 2026 28w ago | Court Ruling | $326.30 $307.72 | ▼ −5.69% | ▼ −3.04% | $231.83 (−28.95%) |
Feb 23, 2026 31w ago | Insider Cluster | $334.47 $334.70 | ▼ −0.07% | ▲ +0.55% | $231.83 (+30.69%) |
US Market Status
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