The double upgrade reflects a bear-to-neutral pivot, not a bullish catalyst. With a weak price target lift, declining EPS estimates, and heavy insider selling, the move lacks conviction. Traders should treat this as risk reduction, not a buy signal — especially with earnings over 100 days away and no estimate tailwind.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Rothschild & Co executed a rare double upgrade from Sell to Neutral with a 17.7% PT increase to $306, now just 2% above current price of $300.07. The move contrasts prior Sell stance amid a bullish consensus: 73% Buy-rated (24 of 33 analysts), mean PT $343.61 (14.5% upside). Rothschild’s 57% accuracy (23/40) is below the top-tier average (71%) but marks a contrarian shift from negative positioning. Momentum shows only one recent upgrade (vs zero downgrades), though EPS estimates are trending down: 10 revisions down vs 5 up in past 30 days. Congressional buying detected (Ro Khanna, $15K–$50K), but insider selling totaled $2.3M in past 6 weeks. Institutional activity mixed: TWO SIGMA increased position 26.6x, while Norges Bank fully exited twice. Short ratio remains elevated at 64.5%. Earnings due August 4 — 100 days out. This upgrade is a reversal of prior bearishness but lacks conviction given modest PT lift and weak estimate momentum.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 33 covering analysts, 24 (73%) rate Buy or Strong Buy, 16 Hold, and 2 Sell — no Strong Sell. The consensus direction is solidly bullish. Rothschild’s move to Neutral remains below consensus sentiment, which leans overweight.
Consensus price target mean is $343.61, median $350, range $250–$407. Current price at $300.07 implies 14.5% upside to the mean. Rothschild’s $306 PT is 10.9% below the mean and in the 18th percentile of all targets, still conservative relative to peers.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Rothschild & Co | upgrade | Neutral | $306.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal-Weight | $334.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | Keybanc | maintain | Overweight | $345.00 |
| 2026-03-06 | Tigress Financial | maintain | Buy | $385.00 |
| 2026-03-03 | Keybanc | maintain | Overweight | $354.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $325.00 |
| 2026-02-13 | Argus Research | upgrade | Buy | $380.00 |
| 2026-02-13 | Guggenheim | maintain | Neutral | $320.00 |
| 2026-02-12 | Jefferies | maintain | Buy | $375.00 |
| 2026-02-12 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $375.00 |
In the past 30 days, there has been 1 upgrade and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions show weakening momentum: over the last 30 days, 10 downward revisions vs 5 upward across all periods. Current 0Y EPS estimate is $13.20, down from $13.23 a month ago.
Firm Track Record — Rothschild & Co
Rothschild & Co accuracy: 57% on 40 calls | avg return: 3.1%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guggenheim | 100% | 6/6 | 6.9% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 100% | 2/2 | 8.8% | top tier |
| Deutsche Bank | 100% | 2/2 | 16.2% | top tier |
| TD Securities | 100% | 3/3 | 2.1% | top tier |
| Loop Capital | 80% | 4/5 | 5.4% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 78% | 7/9 | 3.3% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 71% | 5/7 | 6% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 71% | 5/7 | 1.5% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 69% | 9/13 | 3.4% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 67% | 2/3 | 0.6% | top tier |
Rothschild & Co has a 57% accuracy rate (23 correct out of 40 rated calls) with an average return of 3.1%, below the top-tier average of 71% accuracy. Among 15 firms, Rothschild ranks 11th in accuracy — outperformed by Guggenheim (100%, 6/6), Jefferies (100%, 2/2), and Deutsche Bank (100%, 2/2). Its track record is below average but not among the worst.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Aug 4, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $13.20 | $12.60 — $13.93 | $28.7B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $14.33 | $13.06 — $15.14 | $30.3B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0q | $2.75 | $2.68 — $2.83 | $6.5B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $3.42 | $3.22 — $3.57 | $7.3B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Cross-platform signals are divergent. Positive: Rep. Ro Khanna (D) bought $15K–$50K on March 30. Negative: insiders sold $2.3M in the past six weeks, including multiple sales by CEO Erlinger. Institutionally, TWO SIGMA increased holdings by 2,666%, while Norges Bank exited completely — twice. Short interest ratio is extremely high at 64.5%, suggesting structural bearish positioning despite recent upgrade.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 16, 2026 16d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $248.56 $238.32 | ▼ −4.12% | ▼ −6.68% | $231.49 (−6.87%) |
Aug 4, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $268.34 $274.15 | ▲ +2.17% | ▲ +2.27% | $231.49 (−13.73%) |
Jun 1, 2026 17w ago | Insider Cluster | $276.09 $279.84 | ▲ +1.36% | ▲ +4.11% | $231.49 (−16.15%) |
Apr 23, 2026 23w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $302.45 $290.08 | ▼ −4.09% | ▼ −5.57% | $231.49 (−23.46%) |
Apr 7, 2026 25w ago | DEFA14A | $306.99 $306.26 | ▼ −0.24% | ▼ −3.75% | $231.49 (−24.59%) |
Mar 18, 2026 28w ago | Insider Cluster | $315.71 $311.53 | ▼ −1.32% | ▼ −0.61% | $231.49 (−26.68%) |
Mar 17, 2026 28w ago | Court Ruling | $326.30 $307.72 | ▼ −5.69% | ▼ −3.04% | $231.49 (−29.06%) |
Feb 23, 2026 31w ago | Insider Cluster | $334.47 $334.70 | ▼ −0.07% | ▲ +0.55% | $231.49 (+30.79%) |
US Market Status
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