BMO’s initiation from a 100%-accurate firm adds high-conviction bullish input one day before earnings. Position for upside break on strong print, but monitor institutional outflows as a risk factor.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
BMO Capital initiates coverage on Mastercard (MA) with an Outperform rating and $605 price target, implying 18.3% upside from the current $511.35. The firm has a perfect 100% accuracy rate (3/3 calls correct), ranking it top tier among 15 firms covering MA. Consensus remains strongly bullish: 43 analysts, 93% Buy-equivalent, with a mean PT of $654.66 (+28% upside). Recent EPS revisions are positive: 5 up, 1 down in the last 30 days. Momentum is neutral with 2 recent upgrades, but earnings are due tomorrow. Congressional buys (Capito, McCaul) align with the bullish signal, though institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank exited while Mawer added 81.6%. Bottom line: high-accuracy firm adds bullish conviction ahead of earnings.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is overwhelmingly bullish: 43 analysts, 13 Strong Buy, 30 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell. 93% of ratings are Buy-equivalent. The consensus direction is firmly positive, with no bearish pressure. This initiation aligns with the prevailing sentiment but adds incremental credibility due to BMO’s top-tier accuracy.
The consensus mean price target is $654.66, median $665, range $550–$735. MA trades at $511.35, implying 28.1% upside to the mean. BMO’s $605 target is below the mean (-7.6%) and median (-9.0%), but still implies 18.3% upside. It ranks in the bottom quartile of targets but is above the low of $550.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | BMO Capital | initiate | Outperform | $605.00 |
| 2026-04-14 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $675.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $550.00 |
| 2026-03-31 | Loop Capital | initiate | Buy | $631.00 |
| 2026-03-31 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $650.00 |
| 2026-03-13 | Tigress Financial | maintain | Strong Buy | $735.00 |
| 2026-02-13 | Freedom Broker | upgrade | Buy | $675.00 |
| 2026-01-30 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $655.00 |
| 2026-01-30 | TD Cowen | maintain | Buy | $671.00 |
| 2026-01-30 | Macquarie | maintain | Outperform | $675.00 |
Over the past 30 days, there have been 2 upgrades and 0 downgrades. EPS estimates are trending up: 5 revisions higher, 1 lower in the past 30 days. Current FY0 EPS estimate is $19.60, up from $19.59 30 days ago. +1Y EPS estimate is $22.67, up from $22.64, indicating sustained earnings momentum.
Firm Track Record — BMO Capital
BMO Capital accuracy: 53% on 1844 calls | avg return: 2.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | 100% | 3/3 | 10.6% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 83% | 5/6 | 4.6% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 75% | 3/4 | 1.6% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 75% | 3/4 | 0.2% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 71% | 5/7 | 5.3% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 67% | 4/6 | 2.4% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 67% | 4/6 | 4% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 67% | 2/3 | 4.1% | top tier |
| Mizuho | 67% | 2/3 | 2.4% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 60% | 3/5 | 3.4% | above average |
BMO Capital has a 100% accuracy rate on MA (3/3 calls correct), the highest of any firm covering the stock. Its average return on rated MA shares is 10.6%, tied for highest with BofA Securities. Among 15 firms, 10 are top-tier; BMO ranks #1 in accuracy and tied for #1 in avg return, making it a standout performer.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Apr 23, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $4.42 | $4.27 — $4.50 | $8.3B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| +1q | $4.85 | $4.75 — $5.01 | $9.1B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $19.60 | $19.15 — $20.11 | $37.0B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| +1y | $22.67 | $21.90 — $23.59 | $41.6B | ↑4 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Congressional trades show bullish alignment: 2 buys (Capito, McCaul), 1 sell (Whitehouse). Insider trades: none. Institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank fully exited ($6.7B position), while Mawer Investment added 81.6%. Renaissance Technologies trimmed 66% and is near exit. No short interest data available. Divergence exists: institutions are reducing exposure, but congressional and analyst signals are bullish.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 3, 2026 29d ago | Insider Cluster | $585.71 $569.19 | ▼ −2.82% | ▼ −1.67% | $548.07 (−6.43%) |
Aug 20, 2026 6w ago | Insider Cluster | $580.63 $593.50 | ▲ +2.22% | ▲ +1.74% | $548.07 (−5.61%) |
Aug 6, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $574.24 $567.04 | ▼ −1.25% | ▼ −2.47% | $548.07 (−4.56%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $570.48 $559.73 | ▼ −1.88% | ▼ −2.24% | $548.07 (−3.93%) |
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $577.35 $575.95 | ▼ −0.24% | ▼ −3.87% | $548.07 (−5.07%) |
Jul 15, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $551.54 $530.29 | ▼ −3.85% | ▼ −2.18% | $548.07 (−0.63%) |
Jul 8, 2026 12w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $519.86 $538.02 | ▲ +3.49% | ▲ +2.63% | $548.07 (+5.43%) |
Jul 8, 2026 12w ago | Insider Cluster | $519.86 $538.02 | ▲ +3.49% | ▲ +2.63% | $548.07 (+5.43%) |
Jul 2, 2026 13w ago | Insider Cluster | $539.39 $523.20 | ▼ −3.00% | ▼ −3.93% | $548.07 (+1.61%) |
Jun 30, 2026 13w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $513.60 $533.10 | ▲ +3.80% | ▲ +3.19% | $548.07 (+6.71%) |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access