The revenue guidance raise is a strong positive signal of post-acquisition scale. Monitor the Investor Day webcast for further details on the combined roadmap and any additional financial targets. The stock has a history of high volatility (T+20 avg alpha -13.65% on prior calls), so position sizing should account for potential sharp reversals.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
IonQ issued a press release raising its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $450M-$460M, following its acquisition of SkyWater Technology. The guidance includes SkyWater contributions from July 31, 2026 onward and eliminates intercompany revenue. This is a material upward revision that demonstrates immediate financial scale from the acquisition, though it is forward-looking guidance rather than reported results.
Key Facts
- IonQ expects full-year 2026 revenue between $450 million and $460 million.
- Guidance includes SkyWater Technology contributions from July 31, 2026 (acquisition date) through Dec. 31, 2026.
- Guidance reflects elimination of estimated intercompany revenues under the pre-existing commercial agreement.
- The company is hosting its first joint Investor Day on September 8, 2026.
- Market cap is $15.4B with 80% analyst bullish rating (4 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 4 Hold).
Financial Impact
Revenue guidance raised to $450M-$460M for FY2026, a significant increase from prior expectations
Risk Factors
- Guidance is forward-looking and subject to execution risk on SkyWater integration
- Historical T+20 performance on IONQ calls has been poor (25% win rate, avg alpha -13.65%)
- The $15.4B market cap implies a high multiple on the guided revenue midpoint of $455M (34x), leaving little room for error
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-384388 |
| Document: ionq-ex99_1.htm | 0001193125-26-384388 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-384388-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-384388 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-384388-index.html | 0001193125-26-384388 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-384388.txt | 0001193125-26-384388 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 10, 2026 21d ago | 144 | $36.75 $39.13 | ▲ +6.48% | ▲ +6.70% | $44.60 (+21.37%) |
Sep 8, 2026 24d ago | 8-K | $40.47 $37.50 | ▼ −7.34% | ▼ −6.68% | $44.60 (+10.22%) |
Aug 28, 2026 4w ago | 8-K | $39.31 $43.89 | ▲ +11.65% | ▲ +11.79% | $44.60 (+13.47%) |
Aug 26, 2026 5w ago | 3 | $42.46 $37.64 | ▼ −11.35% | ▼ −10.58% | $44.60 (+5.05%) |
Aug 7, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $44.43 $46.26 | ▲ +4.12% | ▲ +3.72% | $44.60 (+0.39%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $36.44 $44.43 | ▲ +21.93% | ▲ +18.42% | $44.60 (+22.41%) |
Jul 24, 2026 10w ago | Institutional Cluster | $32.84 $35.77 | ▲ +8.92% | ▲ +8.55% | $44.60 (+35.83%) |
Jun 23, 2026 14w ago | Insider Cluster | $57.85 $53.88 | ▼ −6.86% | ▼ −7.87% | $44.60 (−22.90%) |
Jun 16, 2026 15w ago | 144 | $56.06 $57.85 | ▲ +3.19% | ▲ +5.43% | $44.60 (−20.43%) |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | 144 | $46.87 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $44.60 (+4.83%) |
US Market Status
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