BMO's initiation adds another bullish voice to an already crowded long consensus, but the heavy insider selling and negative EPS revision trend warrant caution. Traders should watch for a catalyst to close the gap between the $107 price and the ~$196 mean target, but avoid chasing into insider distribution.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
BMO Capital initiated coverage on INSM at Outperform with a $192 price target, implying 78.6% upside from the current $107.56. The firm has a 53% accuracy rate on 1,842 calls with a 2.3% average return, placing it in the middle tier among firms covering INSM. Consensus is overwhelmingly bullish — 28 of 29 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy, with only 1 Hold and zero Sell ratings. The mean price target is $196.38, median $200, high $243, low $140. BMO's $192 target is slightly below the mean but still well above current levels. Momentum is positive: 1 upgrade and 0 downgrades in the last 30 days, though EPS revisions for the current fiscal year show 4 downward revisions vs 0 upward. Insider selling is notable — two C-suite members sold over $2.6M in July — but institutional buying is strong, with several funds adding or doubling positions. The initiation from a mid-tier firm adds modest bullish confirmation to an already crowded long consensus.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is 28 Buy/Strong Buy (97%), 1 Hold (3%), 0 Sell/Strong Sell. 29 analysts cover the stock. Direction is strongly bullish, with only one hold rating.
Mean PT $196.38, median $200, high $243, low $140. Current price $107.56 implies 82.6% upside to the mean. BMO's $192 PT is 2.2% below the mean, in line with the bullish consensus.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | BMO Capital | initiate | Outperform | $192.00 |
| 2026-07-15 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $161.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | Guggenheim | reiterate | Buy | $207.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $160.00 |
| 2026-06-08 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $179.00 |
| 2026-06-05 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $195.00 |
| 2026-05-14 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $185.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $205.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $160.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | Guggenheim | maintain | Buy | $226.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade (this initiation), 0 downgrades. EPS revisions: current quarter (0q) had 1 up and 1 down revision in 30 days — neutral. Current fiscal year (0y) had 0 up and 4 down revisions. Next fiscal year (+1y) had 2 up and 3 down revisions. Net revision trend is slightly negative.
Firm Track Record — BMO Capital
BMO Capital accuracy: 53% on 1842 calls | avg return: 2.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | 100% | 2/2 | 106.1% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 100% | 2/2 | 71.2% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 75% | 6/8 | 23.2% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 71% | 5/7 | 24.8% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 70% | 7/10 | 54.4% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 67% | 6/9 | 37.2% | top tier |
| Mizuho | 67% | 4/6 | 46.5% | top tier |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | 64% | 9/14 | 31.2% | top tier |
| UBS | 63% | 5/8 | 27.6% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 63% | 5/8 | 54.8% | top tier |
BMO Capital has a 53% accuracy rate on 1,842 scored calls with a 2.3% average return — middle tier among firms covering INSM. Top-tier firms by accuracy on this stock include Barclays (100% on 2 calls), Jefferies (100% on 2), and BofA (75% on 8). Bottom-tier: Cantor Fitzgerald (40% on 5, -9.8% avg return) and TD Cowen (33% on 6, -0.4% avg return).
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $-0.69 | $-1.09 — $-0.05 | $393.0M | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $-2.59 | $-4.29 — $-1.60 | $1.7B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $-0.61 | $-1.14 — $-0.30 | $465.8M | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $0.13 | $-2.24 — $1.64 | $2.8B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling: C-suite members Lewis William (EVP) sold ~$1.26M on July 9 and Flammer Martina M.D. (likely C-suite) sold ~$1.35M on July 6 — total $2.6M+ in insider sales. This is a bearish signal. Congressional activity: Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) sold $1K-$15K on June 10 — negligible. Institutional buying is strong: Ameriprise added 55.3% ($500M position), Assenagon doubled (+245%, $23.3M), Walleye Capital quadrupled (+354%, $11.7M). Short interest is 56.5% of TRF volume — elevated. The insider selling diverges from the bullish analyst signal, but institutional buying converges with it.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 19, 2026 6w ago | Insider Cluster | $130.66 $119.92 | ▼ −8.22% | ▼ −6.70% | $109.99 (−15.82%) |
Aug 12, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $126.33 $129.41 | ▲ +2.44% | ▲ +4.19% | $109.99 (−12.93%) |
Aug 6, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $132.55 $126.68 | ▼ −4.43% | ▼ −5.03% | $109.99 (−17.02%) |
Jul 24, 2026 10w ago | Institutional Cluster | $106.92 $125.77 | ▲ +17.63% | ▲ +14.00% | $109.99 (+2.87%) |
Jul 21, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $108.62 $128.46 | ▲ +18.27% | ▲ +15.70% | $109.99 (+1.26%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $107.46 $126.33 | ▲ +17.56% | ▲ +13.94% | $109.99 (+2.35%) |
Jun 26, 2026 13w ago | Insider Cluster | $104.74 $106.92 | ▲ +2.08% | ▲ +2.36% | $109.99 (+5.01%) |
Jun 5, 2026 16w ago | Insider Cluster | $94.17 $111.54 | ▲ +18.45% | ▲ +16.81% | $109.99 (+16.80%) |
Jun 5, 2026 16w ago | Insider Cluster | $94.17 $111.54 | ▲ +18.45% | ▲ +16.81% | $109.99 (+16.80%) |
May 15, 2026 19w ago | S-3ASR | $107.15 $95.52 | ▼ −10.85% | ▼ −12.44% | $109.99 (+2.65%) |
US Market Status
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