The 8% global retail sales growth and reaffirmed guidance provide a floor, but the 85% operating income collapse and negative operating cash flow signal deep structural pressure from tariffs and HDFS de-levering. Watch for the May 2026 strategic plan announcement for any restructuring or portfolio changes that could reset the earnings trajectory.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Harley-Davidson reported Q1 2026 diluted EPS of $0.22, a 79% decline from $1.07 in Q1 2025, and consolidated revenue of $1.173B, down 12% YoY. The headline miss vs consensus ($0.23 EPS, $996.6M revenue) is driven by a 54% revenue drop at HDFS following the 2025 portfolio sale and a 3.9-point gross margin compression from tariffs, partially offset by 8% global retail sales growth. Guidance for full-year 2026 was reaffirmed, with HDMC operating income still expected in a loss-to-breakeven range.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Diluted EPS of $0.22, down 79% from $1.07 in Q1 2025
- Consolidated revenue of $1.173B, down 12% YoY
- HDMC revenue down 2% to $1.055B; gross margin fell 3.9 pts to 25.3%
- HDFS revenue down 54% to $112M due to 2025 loan portfolio sale
- Global retail motorcycle sales up 8% YoY (33,507 units); North America up 14%
- Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed: HDMC OI of -$40M to $10M; HDFS OI $45-60M
- Operating cash flow was negative $228M in Q1 vs positive $142M a year ago
- Repurchased $128M of shares (6.6M shares) on a discretionary basis
- Incurred $15M in restructuring charges in the quarter
Financial Impact
EPS decline of 79% YoY; revenue decline of 12% YoY; operating income decline of 85% YoY
Risk Factors
- Tariff costs continue to compress HDMC gross margins (down 3.9 pts in Q1)
- HDFS revenue base permanently reduced by ~67% after the 2025 portfolio sale
- Negative operating cash flow of $228M raises liquidity concerns despite $1.8B cash balance
- Restructuring charges ($15M) may signal further cost actions ahead
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000793952-26-000029 |
| Document: hog-20260505.htm | 0000793952-26-000029 |
| Document: 0000793952-26-000029-index-headers.html | 0000793952-26-000029 |
| Document: 0000793952-26-000029-index.html | 0000793952-26-000029 |
| Document: 0000793952-26-000029.txt | 0000793952-26-000029 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000793952-26-000029 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 16, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $26.84 | awaiting T+60 | — | $29.48 (+9.84%) |
Sep 3, 2026 7w ago | Press Release | $28.30 | awaiting T+60 | — | $29.48 (+4.17%) |
Aug 15, 2026 10w ago | Institutional Cluster | $27.03 | awaiting T+60 | — | $29.48 (+9.06%) |
Aug 13, 2026 10w ago | Insider Cluster | $27.78 | awaiting T+60 | — | $29.48 (+6.12%) |
Aug 11, 2026 10w ago | Insider Cluster | $25.79 | awaiting T+60 | — | $29.48 (+14.29%) |
Aug 5, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $25.52 | awaiting T+60 | — | $29.48 (+15.50%) |
Jul 23, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $26.52 $27.59 | ▲ +4.03% | ▼ −0.52% | $29.48 (+11.16%) |
Jul 7, 2026 15w ago | Press Release | $25.36 $24.83 | ▼ −2.09% | ▼ −4.58% | $29.48 (+16.25%) |
Jun 26, 2026 17w ago | 8-K | $24.23 $26.03 | ▲ +7.43% | ▲ +3.04% | $29.48 (+21.67%) |
May 28, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $24.14 $28.29 | ▲ +17.18% | ▲ +16.26% | $29.48 (+22.11%) |
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